Warrior General Games

Originally posted by Sarg01
Zeta Conference Power Rankings - Week 3

THE DEFENDER

1. Melbourne Thorny Devils - The best passing offense and the third best running offense combined with the best defense and big blow out wins means another week at the top for Melbourne. They continue to face top competition this week in the NMI Ramekins.

THE CONTENDERS

2. Tonga Thunderbirds - A big win puts them back in the #2 spot, largely on the strength of the conference's best rushing roster.

3. El Fuego - Another week, another big win. This has the fires riding a little higher in the power rankings than their 7th ranked roster may be able to support long term.

4. NMI Ramekins - They'll have their hands full this week. They should have enough offense to score the first points of the season on the Thorny Devils, but can they stop the relentless Melbourne attack?

5. Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds - After processing the week 2 roster changes, it turns out last week's Shrooms-Bandits game was actually between the fifth and sixth best rosters in the league, so even if the win was smaller than they were probably expecting, it was still a quality victory.

6. Dunedin Wolverines - Nothing like a 21-point win to stop your slide in the power rankings. Dunedin still has one of the top 3 offensive rosters in the conference.

7. The Four Horsemen - Well, if they didn't like my #4 ranking last week, this one'll sting. Not as bad as that shutout loss to Melbourne, though. They've got the weakest passing roster of the contenders and it cost them in this one.

IT WAS JUST A FENDER-BENDER

8. Coney Island Warriors - A wrathful Tonga was not kind to them this week. They shouldn't be too down, though: There's only two teams in the conference with that level of defense, and if they see Tonga again, it'll be in the playoffs.

9. Chinese Bandits - Their big recruiting drive paid off in the roster score, but will it be enough to let them hang with Dunedin. They need a win in a big way.

10. Christchurch Knightmares - Important week for the Knightmares, as they face Coney Island, a team they stack up well with. Will the Warrior's rushing attack prove to be too much for the Knightmares? Stay tuned to find out!

NEED TO BECOME BIG SPENDERS

11. Redscape Diplomats - The season was always going to be a bit tough for them, but now that they've dropped two to teams close to them in the power rankings, Redscape had better be working on a plan B. Week 4 in Cimmeria suggests their losing streak will end, but a tough middle of the schedule after that could leave them vulnerable to the black hole of low morale.

12. Tasmania Sand Gnats - A soft middle schedule may be enough to get them back into it, but they need more talent to capitalize, especially in the area of pass defense.

13. Uluru Rockies - They need more power for their roster. The good news is they have Cimmeria this week, which should be plenty winnable. It's a little easier to recruit FA when you have a 2-1 record.

14. Mauna Kea Chenabogs - With games against the Shrooms, Coney Island and Tonga coming up, they better be recruiting now. The more the losses pile up, the harder it will be to land talent.

15. Cimmerian Barbarians - The only question here was to put them in this section or the last one. Since they're coming off what is likely to be their only win of the season (absent major roster moves), I'm being a bit generous.

RETURN TO SENDER

16. FPQA Ronnie Rockers - Well, it looks like they won't be held scoreless all season - they did manage a field goal in Cimmeria.

Only win of the season??

Nah. We'll sneak in and steal another from one of you over confident man riders.

We suck today, but we'll get there. Someday.

Yeap. New starting ROLB here for the Thorny Devils! Good luck fellas.

I've created the new formulas and added statistics to the power rankings. This produced some shifts in the lower half of the rankings.

1. Melbourne Thorny Devils - Overall score 96.6 - They've soundly beaten some good teams, but still have to face #2, #3 and #4 in these rankings. They get the Chinese Bandits this week. Though the Bandits continually improve their roster, they just don't have the firepower to prevent another big Melbourne win.

2. Tonga Thunderbirds - Overall score 78.2 - The week 1 game is still a big factor holding their score down, but their roster is good, their stats are good, and they've started posting good margins of victory. With Mauna Kea visiting Tonga this week, we can expect more of the same. Keep an eye on the big Tonga-Fuego matchup for next time, though!

3. Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds - Overall score 70.7 - I moved them up a spot because I promised I would if they beat El Fuego. When I said that, I forgot that El Fuego currently has the best stats in the conference and that they'd be factored in the score this week - so even though they're #4 in score ... here they are at #3.

4. El Fuego - Overall score 77.7 - The big improvement in levels this week wasn't enough to deliver combustible justice to the Atomic Fungi. Don't forget, they have a brutal end of season lineup, with 4 likely playoff contenders before getting Melbourne in the last week of intra-conference games. They need to prove that they're not all smoke in these next three weeks.

5. North Marinara Island Ramekins - Overall score 70.6 - They'll be looking to make life difficult for Uluru and Redscape, in advance of a date with the 'Shrooms that is surely circled on their calendar.

6. Dunedin Wolverines - Overall score 64.7 - The top rated offense outside Melbourne just hasn't had the defensive support to get it done. Their stats are bound to improve dramatically against FPQA, however. Could we see a 100-point game?

7. Four Horsemen - Overall score 63.8 - The middle of their schedule, with the Shrooms, Warriors, Thunderbirds and Knightmares, should tell us a lot about this franchise.

8. Coney Island Warriors - Overall score 56.4 - The Warriors stopped their fall down the rankings, and will be looking to upset El Fuego to start reversing the trend.

9. Chinese Bandits - Overall score 55.7 - The Bandit's first-win-of-the-season celebration may be short-lived with a trip to Melbourne this week.

10. Christchurch Knightmares - Overall score 53.9 - With a tie-break over the Warriors, the Knightmares are very much in the playoff hunt.

11. Redscape Diplomats - Overall score 52.4 - Got a big boost from their position in the league passing defense stat rankings (2nd).

12. Uluru Rockies - Overall score 42.7 - The Rockies will need to pull a few rabbits out of hats for the next four weeks.

13. Cimmerian Barbarians - Overall score 42.2 - And here's a bit of a surprise, as their recruiting efforts and the inclusion of statistics substantially improved their score.

14. Tasmania Sand Gnats - Overall score 41.6 - They can't be happy with their schedule - by the time they get to the teams in the 11-16 range, their morale is going to be toast. Christchurch this week represents a chance to break the streak and save their season, but it's a heck of a long shot.

15. Mauna Kea Chenabogs - Overall score 38.5 - Well, at least they have a franchise QB.

16. FPQA Ronnie Rockers - Overall score 20.1 - This team has managed the amazing feat of actually decreasing in level for two straight weeks.

Sarg i think our score is that low from facing the #2 and #4 seed thus far in the past 4 weeks. i would expect that to go up as we see weaker competition. we have had the hardest schedule by far in my opinion.

Nice work again Sarge - and watch this space - I may have a lovely big rabbit to pull out shortly

Originally posted by hendoxps
Sarg i think our score is that low from facing the #2 and #4 seed thus far in the past 4 weeks. i would expect that to go up as we see weaker competition. we have had the hardest schedule by far in my opinion.

It's certainly possible. There's a reason I delayed the entry of stats into the rankings, and yes, the Shrooms are probably the team most "hurt" by their inclusion, whereas El Fuego was the team most helped. That really caused me some heartburn at the #3/#4 spot until I just decided to be honest, run the formulas and state openly - hey, I'm flipping these spots. In a couple of the early formulas, you actually fell to #5 and that was totally inappropriate given the competition you've beaten and the 4-0 record.

By the end of the season, though, you could certainly argue that stats are as (or more) relevant than the roster levels. That's because a roster level assesment can't take into account builds or how well the build fits the system being used. Once everyone's played *mostly* the same competition, stats become a pretty good indicator of team power.

Sarg, you do great work. The Gnats aren't happy at all with the schedule, but we will continue to give it our best effort.

Great work Sarg, you have put together a great blend of roster consideration, stats and human analysis.

The Chinese bandits, just added MORE new players, so we will have our work cut out for us.

Originally posted by sxewesley
Great work Sarg, you have put together a great blend of roster consideration, stats and human analysis.

The Chinese bandits, just added MORE new players, so we will have our work cut out for us.

not sure why a 22 was brought in with the cap in place, for an AA league

there is no cap on this league....only western europe A has a cap.

Ha. You gave the Barbarians some props. We'll take what we can get at this point.

Just wait... never turn your back on a team of Barbarians. Cimmeria may be many moons distant, but when its thunderous hordes arrive, only your women and children will know it, for your men will be slain as swiftly as the cold barbaric winds of their homelands sweep across the icelands of their home...

*yawn* i already saw that movie.

HO HUM at least we didn't drop in rank from 7 last week. Wish I knew how much the number 1 Pass Defence pulls in for ranking percentage on the list.


*SHHH Silence is golden.

Originally posted by TEUFELHOUNDEN
HO HUM at least we didn't drop in rank from 7 last week. Wish I knew how much the number 1 Pass Defence pulls in for ranking percentage on the list.




15.3 points added to your roster score in the passing defense category due to that statistic. Your pass defense roster (30% secondary average, 10% CB1, 15% CB2, 15% LB average, 20% DL average, 10% RE average) was scored at 38.7 against a reference level of 17 (i.e. a full roster of 17s would rate 100.0) - points fall off somewhat exponentially, so the further you get from 17, the worse the penalty is. The conference wide reduction of rosters (to offset the inclusion of statistics) is 90%

So your stat-adjusted pass defense roster score was 50.1, which is half of the overall defensive score. As your rush D was rated 61 and change, your overall defensive score was 56 and change. Defense represents 43% of your skills assesment. The Four Horsemen's overall skill level was 50.9, mostly dragged down by having one of the lowest Special Teams scores (18 out of 100), which accounts for 12% of the skills score.

The Horsemen receive a 12.9 point boost to their final rating on the basis of margin of victory and record.