Warrior General Games

The Practice Squad @ The Program
The Program finds themselves in another Game of the Week. This time it is with Bodiddley’s Practice Squad. On paper, The Program looks like the better team, BUTBo know GLB2. I am not gonna lie…this match up scares me, BUTI have to be true to my team of Super Agents and hope and pick The Program to win in another close one deserving of the GotW tag.

ASE@ House Party
This match-up between ASE and House Party is similar to the match-up between The Practice Squad and The Program BUTHouse Party has struggled recently. HIGHerGrowth was not happy with his team’s performance versus the Atlanta Flames. Possibly too much partying going on in the House. I hope the Joker can find a solution BUTI am not so sure it will happen this week. I am going to take ASE with the upset. Sorry HIGHerGrowth and Joker.


Chaos Warriors @ Grape Apes
An identity change, going into witness protection is not going to change the outcome of this one for the Chaos Warriors. I fear that they will get clawed mighty blow piled on by those Grape Apes. It is going to be a rough day for QB Roy Hobbs

Vinland Scholars @ New York Mambas
This should be an easy W for the Scholars. Sorry Rowlyb BUT you wont win many games if you are going to continue to be inactive.

Team BETA @ Nebraska Cornhuskers 2001
Another battle between Ph33p and viper / dlcurt. Maybe in a different tier my pick would be different BUTthis time I am going to try something different…I pick Team BETA to win this one.

Deadpool’s Mercs @ Lorlea Beach Red Devils
Easy W for Mercs. They are playing like they are pissed off at someone. (Who me?) They have only been out of one game so far this season. (Week 1 vs Vinland) They are my pick for the Dark Horse of the league. Well done, keep it up Mercs

I'm glad we're keeping this rolling, I'll hop in too for today in a bit.

Let's try something a bit different and see how people feel about it. A deep dive into the dynamics of the GotW. Due to some of the analysis going on, I decided that if I keep doing these I'll have to wait until game time to make a post.

Game of the Week:

The Practice Squad (5-3) @ The Program (8-0)

In today's game of the week, Agerm's Program takes on Bo Diddley's Practice Squad. Both of these teams have their own strengths and weaknesses so let's take a closer look into both of them and see if we can't garner a deeper understanding of why this game has potential to be a great one.

Both of these teams are currently fielding a middle of the road defense according to in league play but both are owners of a high octane offense which is what gives this match up its bite. The Program has the #2 passing offense in Tiger while The Practice Squad's run game is currently #1.

While on paper Agerm's The Program is the 5th ranked run defense in the league, let's take a look into why this is potentially deceiving and a possible pain point of today's game.

Agerm runs a soft, passing focused 4W default against Singleback Spread. In fact, Agerm is allowing 3.8 YPC on inside runs out of this set currently and that's with an over performing Nickel 3-3-5 Cover 1 Spy and Nickel 3-3-5 Man LB Contain allowing only .7 and .5 YPC respecitvely. Someone willing to ignore this as an outlier can quickly come to the conclusion that Agerm's 4W defense is allowing 5.5 YPC on inside runs out of this set. If Bo Diddley has recognized this weakness as well, if he's willing to target this vulnerability aggressively and often, then Agerm could be in huge trouble - provided, of course - that Agerm has left this Achilles Heel of his default in place for today's game.

Agerm's struggles against the run continues into 3W Trips as his most commonly called defense here, Nickel Man LB Contain is allowing a terrifying 9.6 YPC against Strong side QB Rollouts (which you'll note Bo has a QB capable of abusing). But even more concerning, this play is also a free 4 YPC up the middle. This is made even worse by Agerm's second most common play Dime 3-2-6 C2 TE Smother is still allowing 3.4 YPC to the outside which isn't nearly punishing enough to dissaude anyone from targeting Nickel Man LB Contain on rollouts - but also suffers Contain's same issue of being a gimme 4 yards up the middle. Not only that but these two plays combine for 90% of Agerm's calls out of 3W Trips against the run. This is another huge red flag for today's game if this stays in place. Bo Diddley may not see the 4W vulnerability but he isn't going to miss this glaring weakness for his QBs to dig into.

Agerm's 3W set runs a 3-2-6 default as well which has yet to be tested thoroughly to the inside and doesn't have data for me to draw from but seems to have quite the same vulnerabilities that his 4W does and were I to call the game would feel very confident in running up the middle against.

The rest of Agerm's defense is solid against the run allowing a -.5 YPC to the outside out of 2W for instance. Big I could be another point of attack but wouldn't be something I would be willing to risk over the aforementioned weaknesses.

As far as the passing game goes for Agerm, he focuses on standard Rookie meta of smothering the TE whenever and wherever possible - and Bo also sticking to the script chucks it to the TE almost exclusively. Considering Bo is running hybrid QBs I don't think he is to the task of overcoming the pass defense of The Program. I think Bo will stay away from passing this game and rely on his ground game to attack The Program.

Practice Squad's pass defense isn't anything to write home about so far it seems and this is concerning considering The Program's aptitude for airing it out.

Let's look at Bo's 3W Trips default to start to flesh this idea out. Bo calls two plays against 3W Trips, 5-2 Over Mike 3 & Nickel Zero Double Man. The former allows a concerning 6.6 YPA while the latter a safe 3.6 YPA. But this is deceiving as well, looking into Nickel Zero Double Man we can see it has yet to be tested against the flagship pass play of 3W Trips, TE Flag. Not only this, this play which is seemingly weak to the TE has only been tested here by CPUs. This is a powder keg situation here. Bo's blitz with Over Mike 3 isn't getting home and allowing big gains - and his follow up defense is quite possibly weak where Agerm is at his strongest.

Bo's 2W defense unlike his 3W Trips defense isn't a theoretical weakness, it's a provable one. Bo is allowing a 70% completion rate to the TE out of this set. He's putting zones right on top of the TE routes but its yet to pay dividends with only 1 pick on 86 attempts out of the set. When accounting for only TE passes out of 2W we can see that Bo is allowing near around 8 YPA here. If Agerm is content to sit in 2W all game and force feed it to the TE, Bo is going to come up short in this game.

Finally, The Practice Squad's pass defense woes continue into 1W allowing 7.2 YPA and this is with 3 sacks on 18 attempts to suppress those numbers. These sacks come against ASE and Lorlea respectivelly and I don't think The Program's pass defense to be nearly as weak there. The real YPA for a team like Agerm's could be as high as 9 or 10. There isn't as much data to pull from with this set but the signs are all there that Agerm will find nothing but success here if he decides to target it.

So who takes it? Whose offense reigns supreme in this match up of strengths that target each other's weaknesses?

The Program.

While Agerm has an anemic run defense as mentioned above and Bo has the ability to grind the game out and keep a huge ToP; it's the lack of ability to defend the TE that I think will ultimately cost Bo this game. The Practice Squad will need time for their run game to go to work, and the nature of running is such that you're going to have a failed drive or two. But if Agerm goes to the TE in this game - and he will - he's looking at a 70% completion rate. Applying some nerdy mathematics, using the binomial distribution we can see that with a 70% completion rate across 3 downs with a YPA of only 5 that Agerm has a ~97.3% chance to sustain his drive if he only goes to the TE. And I can't argue against numbers like that.

Agerm takes it in a game that could be a lot bloodier than some may expect.

Nice write up ellix!

Appreciate both Agerm and Ellix write ups this week! Oh, Agerm, you are magic, when you dont pick us, we win

Teach agerm to vote against us

Originally posted by vipermaw82
Teach agerm to vote against us

I mean…. I don’t see an issue with his prediction. 😄

Deadpool’s Mercs @ The Program
Another Game of the Week for The Program. I do not agree with this one. I think the Vinland Scholars @ House Party match is more deserving of the GotW tag his week. I am interested to hear ellix’s thoughts on this one (Vinland vs House Party). I do not know which Merc’s team to plan for…the one that beat Nebraska or the one that lost to Lorlea Beach. I do expect them to be madder than a pissed on hive of hornets. I still have to take my team to win this one but I am not gonna lie I am scared.

Vinland Scholars @ House Party
This one should be fun to watch. House Party’s #1 offense fueled by their potent #1 passing attack versus the the Scholar’s #3 ranked offense / #2 passing. Both teams’ passing defense have been porous so far this season. Both teams are led by knowledgeable and experienced coaches. Vinland’s pass defense is slightly the better of the two and for that reason I will pick the Scholars to win this shootout.

Grape Apes @ Lorlea Beach Red Devils
Another easy win for the Grape Apes this week. It should be a fun game to watch for the Apes and their fans but it won’t be a game for most of us to watch.

Nebraska Cornhuskers 2001 @ New York Mambas
A week off for the Cornhuskers. Deservedly so after last week victory over Team BETA.

Team BETA @ ASE
I am not sure who if anyone is coaching ASE and Diamond D has been inactive. Ph33p is active and coming off a loss to Nebraska. I pick BETA to go alpha on ASE.

Chaos Warriors @ Practice Squad
It doesn’t get any easier for the Warriors, last week it was the Apes. This week it is the Practice Squad. This one might as well be practice for the practice squad. Sorry, Zoey.

Biff Barf here! Soaking up all the news and barfing it back at you!

-Along side the barf-ster is me! Spaceman Spiff! Your intrepid search for the news stops here!

(Less is more spiff) Today we'll look back at week four, say no more, so let's get straight to the action!

Alpha Division
1 The Program 5-0-0
2 House Party 4-1-0
3 New York Mambas 1-4-0
4 Lorlea Beach Red Devils 1-4-0
The Program punished The Practice Squad, 13-0. Pretty much put a pounding on The Practice run game.

-Looks like running is the factor early this season for victory for most teams, but the TEs were pretty much ignored by The-

Less is more...
House Party pull an all-nighter on the Airborne Screaming Eagles, winning 20-6.

-Three TDs in the second quarter was all they needed as the Party coasted to victory from there and the defense held ASE to just two FGs-

You really can't help yourself, can you!?
Lorlea Beach Red Devils surprise Deadpool's Mercs for Money, 12-10.

-This one came down to piss poor depth charts and anemic passing for DMFM versus lack of solid game planning and inability to hold on to the ball for the Red Devils.

Looks like the kicking game made up for the lack of red-zone punch in Lorlea Beach's case. DMFM needs more up to date offensive game planning.

Beta Division
1 Team BETA 3-2-0
2 Vinland Scholars Of Vega 3-2-0
3 Deadpool's Mercs for Money 2-3-0
4 Chaos Warriors 0-5-0
New York Mambas lose at home to the Vinland Scholars Of Vega, 3-48.

-This victory gets the Scholars back to division lead.

The Scholars Of Vega utterly dominated this one as the offense scored at will and the defense held the Mambas to a mere trash time FG.

-Truly a thing of beauty...

Unless your the Mambas, you'll be having nightmares all week after that one!

Gamma Division
1 Grape Apes House of Slombo 5-0-0
2 Nebraska Cornhuskers 2001 3-2-0
3 The Practice Squad 2-3-0
4 Airborne Screaming Eagles 1-4-0
Grape Apes House of Slombo shut-out the Chaos Warriors, 24-0.

-This beat down is brought to you by Samsonite luggage. Where the House of Slombo plays the 800 pound gorilla and the warriors play the luggage...

While the Chaos Warriors averaged barely 1.5 yards a carry in the all-out run game, the Grape Apes passing game was a perfect 12 of 12 while running for close to four yards a pop.
Nebraska Cornhuskers 2001 prove they're not beta males beating Team BETA, 10-0.

-Truly a powerful defensive showing by the Cornhuskers

Yeah they held Team Beta to less than 85 yards TOTAL offense and dominated time of possession. Too bad they suck on offense.

-While the run game did a decent job of gaining 3.8 yards per attempted run their struggle in the red continues.

Didn't I say less is more!? For Spiff and the great one myself, Biff, this is, um, Biff Barf signing off!

Agerm, QuadL, Ellix, ty again for making this a fun league to be in! Hope I can see these on a regular basis

Lorlea Beach Red Devils surprise Deadpool's Mercs for Money, 12-10.

-This one came down to piss poor depth charts and anemic passing for DMFM versus lack of solid game planning and inability to hold on to the ball for the Red Devils.

Looks like the kicking game made up for the lack of red-zone punch in Lorlea Beach's case. DMFM needs more up to date offensive game planning.

+ the Red Devils' defenders were faster . Every time it looked like somebody might break loose .....nope!

Kicking game? .
That(my) kicker is 50/50 , at best, on any given kick. Soooo...... there's a 6.25% chance of him going 4-4.
Put it another way, if that game is played 15 more times, he probably doesn't go 4-4 in any of them.

Whoops, took a nap. Posting my thoughts now.

The Game of the Week breakdown:

Vindland Scholars @ House Party

Let's start today's deep dive by first going over where these teams are the same and where they begin to diverge. Both of these teams are pass first offenses and they both favor runs to the outside on the ground.

House Party calls a 30/70 passing offense that goes deep around 25% of the team and runs to the outside ~66% of the time on their runs. Vinland Scholars are by comparison more restrained, calling a 40/60 passing offense that only goes deep around 10% of the time but still runs to the outside ~66% of the time on the ground.

These teams are #1 and #2 in the league in passing yardage, but let's take a look at why this game is going to be decided by the defense.

We'll start with Vinland Scholars offense and in particular their 4W sets. DCF operates out of 4W ~20-25% of the time they're on the field. And this tends to be one of their more one dimensional sets - passing 80% of the time. Of those passing plays, they call only three - SB SPD Flags and Posts, SB SPD 4 Wide Hooks, and SG SPD PA Seams. The latter of which they call 75% of the time. On the ground, they run SB SPD HB Dive and SB SPD HB Pitch Weak as their only runs, calling both evenly.

So, how does this relate to a defensive battle this game? Because House Party calls 4-3 Middle Overload as their most common defense against 4W and it shreds everything listed above. Some people might try to use Pitch Weak against MO, but its very boom or bust with a lot more bust than boom.

The problem for Vinland here is they aren't using a relatively blitz safe pass that can target WR3 to hit the open man before the FS pulls over from MO like 4WR Unders - and they don't run Slams or Off Tackle, which tend to perform better against MO than dives.

Moving into Vinland's 3W set, 30% of their plays are runs with none to the outside - and 70% are in the air, primarily using 4 plays: SG WR Hook, PSTL TE Drive, SG PA Boot Strong Flood and SB TE Drive. This is where Vinland likes to play with going deep and using long developing plays and this is going to get them in trouble again.

The most commonly called defensive plays by House Party into 3W is Dime C1 TE Smother and 4-4 ZEB and Nickel ZEB. ZEB is uniquely powerful against 3W No Trips against runs up the middle and with Vinland's deep passing routes and Bootlegs, they're in huge trouble here. Combined with the fact that TE Smother isn't a slouch against the run in rookie due to the deflated tackling numbers on all positions, and the run isn't going to fare very well here either. If Vinland goes to this set too often this game, it will be over quickly.

Let's shift our focus now over to the defensive side of Vinland and see where they match up with House Party. This time we start with 4W Trips, House Party makes only 2 passing calls out of this set. SG Trip WK Posts Go and SG Trip WK Quad Go. Vinland's answer to this set is Dime Cover 2 Sink, Nickel 2 WK Edge Fire, Dime C1 Double Lurk and Nickel Cover 2 Sink. There is a problem here. These are shallow zone plays with limited blitzing against two deep passing plays. House Party can call this set all day and feel completely safe.

The rest of the sets of Vinland tend to be a wash between the calls of House Party and themselves. But the real issue comes down to the lines. House Party already has 37 in league sacks where they lead the league. Grape Apes House of Slombo only has 25. Why is this relevant? Because Grape Apes was able to get home 8 times against Vinland with much less aggressive blitzing and was a big contributor to their victory over the Scholars. In fact, the Scholars get sacked a lot - the only team to be sacked more are the Chaos Warriors and the New York Mambas.

So who takes it? House Party as their line and play calls better fit to stopping Vinland.

Originally posted by dlcurt
Agerm, QuadL, Ellix, ty again for making this a fun league to be in! Hope I can see these on a regular basis

Fun?

Originally posted by ellix
Whoops, took a nap. Posting my thoughts now.

The Game of the Week breakdown:

Vindland Scholars @ House Party

So who takes it? House Party as their line and play calls better fit to stopping Vinland.




Tough time choosing us lately. We seem to be good, but like to have Rookie Flops at all the wrong times. This game showed us with our potential but we seem to crash down alot. Sometimes because of multiple plays similar to the simpleness of this: https://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/847601/668972
On the Season S*WR Zilla has a total of 7 Drops in 11 games. With 3 of those coming in this game, including the prementioned drop.

& Kicking: 0-7 last 4 games. Add in a missed Extra Point.