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jfbueno
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Originally posted by Xars


Complaining? Not at all.

Laughing? Absolutely.

LogZilla's history is this: 6.32% of League+Ladder games we've committed 3 or more turnovers. That's not NET vs opponent - that's gross.

So USC wants to trumpet an amazing Offensive game plan that needed a 6.32% event??? Look at the reverse: MEM had a 93.68% chance of not getting 3 TOs. Plus 2 of the TOs where deep in my territory. Game had one sack - led to a fumble - and a recovery - within my 20 yard line.

What I find hysterical is a #1 Ladder ranked Run-heavy team that believed they had virtually ZERO chance of running the ball and winning the game.

Let's be clear. MEM played great Defense. Against their first all-Pass O at Vet, they played real well. Their Offensive game plan literally almost gave the game away. Yet they somehow think it was an element of genius/ great judgement.



It's not that we felt we had zero chance to win using our bread and butter offense. It's that we felt we had a better chance surprising you and scoring more points in the air. Granted that obviously had an effect of more possessions for Logzilla and put the defense in some tight spots. The chances of MEM winning by controlling the clock most of the game were, in my mind, less than catching your defense off guard. Agree to disagree but I liked our strategy and glad it ended up working out this time.
 
jfbueno
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Not to mention you threw the ball 114 times. MEMs defense is good enough to force several turnovers when they have that many opportunities to do so.
 
jfbueno
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MEM has had two 3 interception games in league play this season. To say we had a 93% chance of not doing that due to Logzilla's interception rate is incorrect since you're not taking into account MEMs ability to force interceptions. Both events are not mutually exclusive and far more complicated in order to depict an accurate representation of a teams chance of forcing interceptions.
 
Parab00n
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Xars, never go full Tdiddy.
 
Xars
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Originally posted by jfbueno
Both events are not mutually exclusive and far more complicated in order to depict an accurate representation of a teams chance of forcing interceptions.


Completely true, though I doubt you'd say it was anywhere near the reverse. No exact number can calculated, but there's an old saying of "being roughly right versus precisely wrong". If MEM and LZ scrimmed 100x, what % of games would you expect 3 or more net TO differentials? More than 10%?

Originally posted by jfbueno
The chances of MEM winning by controlling the clock most of the game were, in my mind, less than catching your defense off guard. Agree to disagree but I liked our strategy and glad it ended up working out this time.


Yep we disagree. Personally I think you had a good chance of winning with your normal strategy. I hadn't ever watched any of your games before but after watching your Defense and your comment of

Originally posted by jfbueno
Not to mention you threw the ball 114 times. MEMs defense is good enough to force several turnovers when they have that many opportunities to do so.


I think you should have had much more faith in your Defense and therefore didn't need to move away from your strengths on O. It's Risk vs. Reward. You can guess but you didn't know what Defense I'd run (most top teams gameplan on D), but you know exactly what O I run and all of my builds. So if you had faith in your D, you wouldn't have needed to embark on such a risky O strategy. In your first 9 games, your Offensive Efficiency (First Down+TD conversion ratio) was 75.28%. Your standard O would have performed just fine and with the early TOs your Defense generated and the Punt Return TD, you would have run away with the game. Instead you just about needed the 3rd TO (or time to run out) to seal the win.

It was a fun game to watch from my perspective. I laughed more than in any game I've ever watched.

Grats on the win.

Edited by Xars on Jul 23, 2015 07:17:42
 
Xars
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Originally posted by Parab00n
Xars, never go full Tdiddy.


I expect better from you!

I'm not surprised most people on these boards think I was complaining, but not you too.

I completely enjoyed that game.
 
jfbueno
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GG regardless. Once we play next season I'm going to assume that you'll face MEMs running attack so we can see what happens then.
 
Galithor
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Turnover totals are dependent upon playcount. If Monmouth runs their normal offense, maybe you run 70-80 offensive plays. 2 turnovers would be a fair expectation in that case.
 
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Galithor
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GA losing to Logzilla went about how I expected. We played pretty solid defense, and did our usual disappearing act on offense against top flight competition. Watching GA's offense the last couple of seasons has not been much fun. We're terribad when it matters since arriving in Veteran.

You need to put in a different set of short passing plays for GL work Xars. Flood Left is your friend, along with other crossing routes. Hanging those passes to the back of the endzone is a very high risk play. There is a "very short" section of the playbook Stobie's YPA data on various plays isn't as important as completion % once you're down there.
Edited by Galithor on Jul 23, 2015 09:29:48
Edited by Galithor on Jul 23, 2015 09:28:47
Edited by Galithor on Jul 23, 2015 09:28:37
Edited by Galithor on Jul 23, 2015 09:27:11
Edited by Galithor on Jul 23, 2015 09:26:43
 
Absolut Zero
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What is up with Diamond this season. Wrath and Mercy are both 3-3. San Antonio Gunslingers are tied with GA for Beta Division. This is madness!
 
Xars
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GG GA. Well that was unexpected, at least to me.

After watching you move the ball in Q1, I thought I was in for a long day, especially in 4WR.

Gal - I thought about that awhile ago, but wasn't convinced for my team. Guess I'll look at the stats again.

 
McGruffHawk
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Originally posted by Galithor
GA losing to Logzilla went about how I expected. We played pretty solid defense, and did our usual disappearing act on offense against top flight competition. Watching GA's offense the last couple of seasons has not been much fun. We're terribad when it matters since arriving in Veteran.

You need to put in a different set of short passing plays for GL work Xars. Flood Left is your friend, along with other crossing routes. Hanging those passes to the back of the endzone is a very high risk play. There is a "very short" section of the playbook Stobie's YPA data on various plays isn't as important as completion % once you're down there.


Our offense is frustrating as heck to watch. We always seem to get the wrong play at the wrong time, or the wrong player on the right play. The end result today was too many short drives and quick drives that put the ball back in Logzilla's hands.
 
Xars
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Originally posted by Absolut Zero
What is up with Diamond this season. Wrath and Mercy are both 3-3. San Antonio Gunslingers are tied with GA for Beta Division. This is madness!


It's nice to see some change up. I'm thinking that with 2 more seasons at Vet and an incoming Pass O nerf, LZ Boys will face the same turnover.

 
Galithor
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may not be too relevant except against teams you know have some interceptor builds. Frankly, you got pretty fortunate in this one to escape with only two INTs. Lester's got 80 INT, and he dropped at least 3 other passes that looked like sure INTs. If I did any teeth gnashing in this one beyond our redzone offense and kicker, it was those dropped interceptions.
 
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