Here's how I've viewed the passing game and QB decision making.
This is purely my own conjecture.QB values recieving targets based on 3 criteria. They must have a value above some minimum threshold for the QB to be willing to unload a pass to avoid a sack. Once they cross some maximum threshold, the QB will immediately pass the ball to them for being such an overwhelmingly good target, even if unthreatened by the pass rush.
The sum of the 3 scores is what matters for deciding when to throw to a target.1.
Progression Score: Initial starting target value for each receiver on a play.
2.
Time Score: Integrating bonus to each receivers target value based on length of the play. Eventually the QB will throw to a target. Possibly modified by Quick Read SA.
3.
Quality Score: Scaled score based on openess and play situation, such as needing a first down. This score can scale negative to positive. Probably where Pass Awareness impacts the game.
So there are 3 outcomes as the targets score changes throughout a play.
A: no targets reach minimum "unload pass to avoid a sack" score. Sack happens.
B: target gets to max value threshold, and QB will pass to them unforced.
C: one or multiple targets have value over "avoid sack" value, but not to "max value" when a pass rusher forces a pass. QB will throw to highest value target. A "hurry" dice roll is performed to see if the pass is impacted by a hurry.
Originally posted by Example Scenario
So let's say this is how a play works with some made up numbers as examples:
Start of the play (values) -
WR1 - 1st progression value of 50
WR2 - 2nd progression value of 40
WR3 - 3rd progression value of 30
TE - 4th progression value of 20
HB - 5th progression value of 10
Every tick, the score on each target increases by 1.
The "I'm open/a good target based on the situation" score can swing from -50 to +50, based on pass awareness.
Let's say you need to get to a minimum of 80 score on a target for a QB to be willing to unload a pass to avoid a sack. At 120 score though, the QB will immediately pass the ball unforced due to it being a max value target.
So we reach tick 30, and the pass rush is hounding your QB. Your QB would be willing to throw to WR1 (50 progression +30 time score = 80 unload throw to avoid sack score) but WR1 had a negative modifier from the quality score. However maybe WR2 is already up to a sweet +20 quality modifier, so they're available. QB unloads to WR2. If they'd been better covered or on a lower value route for the situation at tick 30, the QB would've instead eaten the sack.
Maybe there's no sack threat. And by tick 40, WR1 had nailed a head fake, and is wide open. The QB gives him a +30 "I'm open score". He's at 50(progression)+40(time)+30(quality) now, so 120 total target score, which is the "good target pass it now" score required for an unforced pass.
thoughts based on these assumptions:- Quick Read SA has bothered me since Air Raid got to veteran 4 seasons ago. I used to think it probably tied into the Quality section of a target's score, but I kinda feel like it's more likely tied to the time score. So it doesn't necessarily help you find the best target, but it helps you get to a target sooner. I wouldn't be surprised if QR simply gives you a direct boost to the integrating time score on all targets, and this would explain much of my gnashing of teeth over Cleveland seemingly unloading passes prematurely all the time. gold QR was just pushing targets to the max value faster. Think about it. At gold quick read, if the system works like how I described above, that'd be a +3 score/tick for 15-30 ticks instead of +1 score/tick. If QR fired on tick 20, by tick 30 I'd have a progression + time score of 100 already instead of 80. By tick 40, progression + time score would be up to 130. The first progression would need lower than a -10 quality score for me to not already be targeting them. Which is probably a bad thing since they're already a negative quality target. QR would thus be great for helping to avoid sacks, but on the backside it be forcing more passes into lower quality targets and leaning more on your progressions.
- Pass Awarness could be a double edged sword depending on how it works. Sure, it'll help you find better targets sooner by evaluating them with a higher quality score, but it would also help eliminate lower quality targets by enhancing their negative scores. If you've got 5 targets on routes that haven't gotten a positive quality score yet and you're about to eat a sack, then pass awareness could actually be furthering your QB's opinion that they should eat the sack instead of throwing the ball by enhancing those negative quality scores. Common situations where you'd have all 5 targets with very bad negative quality scores? 3rd down with nobody near the first down marker yet.
- Pocket Awareness might impact the "minimum score" threshold to unload a pass at a target and avoid a sack in addition to it's probable pathing logic function for QB's rolling around in/out of the pocket.
- maybe the other QB and WR skills impact the value of targets too? High pass tech giving more quality score to covered targets? High power/accuracy improving quality score for deeper targets or thread the needle type throws? WRs can obvioulsy enhance their target score the most by getting open through skills/route design. Maybe CiT improves their score when covered though?
- assume that morale/energy play a role in modifying the skills that all come into play.
- the chance for an official "hurry" with it's pass quality penalties and such is based on target score. The closer to maximum it was, lower chance of hurry. The closer the targets score was to barely beating the minimum "avoid sack" score, the better the chance of a hurry. Intimidation skill probably modifies this chance for a hurry or maybe it increases the distance from which a QB will begin their forced throw decision making relative to a pass rusher, thus presumably putting them closer to the minimum score and thus inducing a higher hurry % chance. This would explain why some seemingly sure-fire hurries aren't actually hurries. Yeah, you forced the pass, but they were about to unload it for max score reasons anyhow.
TL;DR and all that, but there is a dump of my thoughts on the matter of QB decisionmaking and various QB skills/SAs. It's probably about as likely as anyone else's theory
