Warrior General Games

Originally posted by germains
This system is weird. After a huge win we go from 11-5 to 10-6... I don't know you why i look so far into this thread.

The program has been pretty accurate over the past 2 seasons.

Not dead on, thats for certain but it takes into account how badly you beat the team and how that team did against common opponents and so on and so forth.

Originally posted by germains
This system is weird. After a huge win we go from 11-5 to 10-6... I don't know you why i look so far into this thread.

Lol yea it doesnt make much sense I am not sure why Morid still uses this formula.
My team lost yesterday but still managed to move up a spot in the standings. Weird.

Originally posted by MattMan Firespot
Originally posted by germains

This system is weird. After a huge win we go from 11-5 to 10-6... I don't know you why i look so far into this thread.

Lol yea it doesnt make much sense I am not sure why Morid still uses this formula.
My team lost yesterday but still managed to move up a spot in the standings. Weird.

Best way to see how acurate will be at the end of the season. It is not fool proof, it does not look at who has or has not boosted. The numbers are the numbers. If you don't like these you don't have to take part in the thread. I will say the scores it projects are normally.... +/- 7 points within a touchdown.

Satchmo has released this to everyone on another tread. Feel free to get it and set it up to see what I see.

Stop being buzzkills and be happy mor is doing this. You already chased away our power rankings guy for petes sake, lol.

Originally posted by WiSeIVIaN
Stop being buzzkills and be happy mor is doing this. You already chased away our power rankings guy for petes sake, lol.

Not tryna be a buzz-kill Id just like to see something that has a more current outlook ya know. I aprpeciate what Morids doing, I just think some things are overlooked with the formula. PF and PA are pretty hard to use to predict accurate outcomes early in the season.

It's no longer early in the season.

Morid.

How accurate it is for the season from when? Because at this point there are several early season versions that are quite different?

I'm just giving you grief though, it's interesting to look at if nothing else.

Also, not the fault of this system, but it can't account for things like the New Brunswick Scarlet Knights.

Are either of those high level DT's going to resign? If not there are no backups. On the O-line there are also players with contracts set to expire before the playoffs.

Things like that can really affect how accurate these things are, and no model can really take them into account.

Originally posted by o5prey
Morid.

How accurate it is for the season from when? Because at this point there are several early season versions that are quite different?

I'm just giving you grief though, it's interesting to look at if nothing else.

It changes with every point scored in every game. If say a team has a bad game plan and gets upset or the lower team Boosts and does a lot better than expected it shifts the lists a lot.

It shifts as I enter in all the scores. As for the projected scores for the next game it has always been close. A few turnovers or things that are not "normal" for any specific team can shift things..... normally by not more than 7 points one way or another.

Also last week (at least in the east) there were some surprises. Games that shifted due to 1 play or another.

Also this is not an exact science it is using data to compile theories and trends. As more data comes in the output will tighten up.

Maybe SanDiego will shoot to #1 after playing colorado today lol
Just kiddin Ice, but seriously, it goes to show how unaccurate it can be.

Originally posted by MattMan Firespot
Maybe SanDiego will shoot to #1 after playing colorado today lol
Just kiddin Ice, but seriously, it goes to show how unaccurate it can be.

Actually it has been pretty accurate today. A few surprises. But of course you wont fill it out yourself, so you feel the need to make yourself look important.

Good thing about projections is... its a projection, not a guess or cold hard fact. It is based on data and is unbiased.

Originally posted by morid
Originally posted by MattMan Firespot

Maybe SanDiego will shoot to #1 after playing colorado today lol
Just kiddin Ice, but seriously, it goes to show how unaccurate it can be.

Actually it has been pretty accurate today. A few surprises. But of course you wont fill it out yourself, so you feel the need to make yourself look important.

Good thing about projections is... its a projection, not a guess or cold hard fact. It is based on data and is unbiased.

I feel the need to make myself look important? lol Seems you are really self-conscious about this projection thing, you are taking it extremely personal. You shouldnt 'lash out' like that, it makes you look unstable. Seriously.

Dont embarass yourself by being so soft, seems your the person attempting to look important getting very upset that someone disagrees with your 'opinion'..Very mature, its impressive.

bah, its a calculation already! Just some numbers put into a spreadsheet in an attempt to predict. I thank you for posting it Morid. Some of us understand what it is as well as its limitations and I hope you continue to post it.

Originally posted by MattMan Firespot
Originally posted by morid

Originally posted by MattMan Firespot


Maybe SanDiego will shoot to #1 after playing colorado today lol
Just kiddin Ice, but seriously, it goes to show how unaccurate it can be.

Actually it has been pretty accurate today. A few surprises. But of course you wont fill it out yourself, so you feel the need to make yourself look important.

Good thing about projections is... its a projection, not a guess or cold hard fact. It is based on data and is unbiased.

I feel the need to make myself look important? lol Seems you are really self-conscious about this projection thing, you are taking it extremely personal. You shouldnt 'lash out' like that, it makes you look unstable. Seriously.

Dont embarass yourself by being so soft, seems your the person attempting to look important getting very upset that someone disagrees with your 'opinion'..Very mature, its impressive.

Awww, nice try!