Warrior General Games

Originally posted by jdbolick
The other proposals on how to "fix" the turnover problem are only addressing the symptoms and not the underlying cause of this issue. Even Bort's slider "solution" won't actually address the cause, it will merely obscure it. The problem isn't builds, but rather the fact that experiencing a turnover dramatically raises your chance of having another turnover. That should not happen, as your % turnover chance should be determined solely by your build and the build of the defender.


Here is what currently happens: (note that these percentages are theoretical and should not be considered accurate)


HB1 with 60 carrying, 60 strength, and 50 confidence has a 2% base chance to fumble before any defensive modifiers.
HB2 with 50 carrying, 50 strength, and 40 confidence has a 3% base chance to fumble before any defensive modifiers.


So builds are the primary determinant in the first turnover, but only the first turnover. Now, if HB1 is unlucky and hits that 2% chance, then the sim currently penalizes him for that by dramatically increasing his chance for a second turnover. For expediency, let's assume that the sim causes the chance to double.


HB1 with 60 carrying, 60 strength, and 50 confidence now has a 4% base chance to fumble.
HB2 with 50 carrying, 50 strength, and 40 confidence still has a 3% base chance to fumble.


By this point, HB1 has a greater chance of experiencing a turnover than HB2 despite the fact that he obviously has a better build. That's the problem. Now, if HB1 gets unlucky yet again and hits that 4% chance, then his probability of experiencing another turnover increases yet again.


HB1 with 60 carrying, 60 strength, and 50 confidence now has an 8% base chance to fumble.
HB2 with 50 carrying, 50 strength, and 40 confidence still has a 3% base chance to fumble.


And if it happens again, then the chance doubles once more.


HB1 with 60 carrying, 60 strength, and 50 confidence now has a 16% base chance to fumble.
HB2 with 50 carrying, 50 strength, and 40 confidence still has a 3% base chance to fumble.


This is what causes these mass-fumble games. It is a sim issue and needs a sim fix, not just a band-aid to cover it up. If the chance of experiencing a turnover is determined solely by the offensive and defensive player's builds, then we won't have this issue. Turnovers actually will be determined by builds instead of a cascade effect If you make that change, then games will look like this:


No fumbles:
HB1 with 60 carrying, 60 strength, and 50 confidence has a 2% base chance to fumble before any defensive modifiers.
HB2 with 50 carrying, 50 strength, and 40 confidence has a 3% base chance to fumble before any defensive modifiers.

After one fumble by HB1:

HB1 with 60 carrying, 60 strength, and 50 confidence still has a 2% base chance to fumble before any defensive modifiers.
HB2 with 50 carrying, 50 strength, and 40 confidence still has a 3% base chance to fumble before any defensive modifiers.


"Fix your builds!" trolls should not even bother responding to this thread. If you haven't had any mass-turnover games, it's because you're like most people and hit the odds, not because your build is any better than the people who have been victimized. Those of you who have a question about what I'm saying because you either don't understand it or don't agree with it, post and I'll try my best to answer. My concern is that if the underlying cause of this problem is not addressed, we'll end up seeing it again in the future. This problem occurred in Season 5, and obviously Bort's band-aid solution then only hid this issue, it didn't correct it. Making turnovers independent of previous turnovers will correct it once and for all.

I like where you're going here, because you're demanding an ACTUAL fix instead of band-aid repairs.

The only problem I can see with this is the fact that Bort's middle name is actually "Band-Aid".

I think his full name is Bortamus "Band Aid" Blitzowicz. All joking aside, I just don't see Bort digging deep and addressing the root of any problem, it's always a band-aid style fix that always leads to new problems.

Originally posted by kretchfoop
Originally posted by jdbolick
As stated earlier, it's fine if morale affects the HB's chance of hanging on to a pass, breaking a tackle, or how fast he accelerates. None of those things produce a disastrous cascade effect that decides the outcome of a game simply because someone got unlucky and had a couple of early turnovers that produced a chain reaction no build could ever hope to stop.Wait a second, it is more realistic if a halfback loses acceleration but not if he fumbles more often? Okay. Confidence doesn't matter at all. I guess you know more than an ex-NFL head coach because you write for your school paper, or whatever."'If those fumbles happened with Bill Parcells,' said Anderson, 'they'd be in the doghouse by now. They wouldn't be playing, but Ray being a running back himself, he'll do all he can to develop a running back's confidence. Those fumbles weren't carelessness. They were second-effort and blindside hits, but Bill would've exploded. If you fumbled with Bill, lots of times you didn't get a chance to make amends, but Ray wants to build their confidence.'"http://www.nytimes.com/1991/10/07/sports/pro-football-sports-of-the-times-the-giants-marquee-now-features-hampton.html?n=Top%2FReference%2FTimes%20Topics%2FPeople%2FH%2FHampton%2C%20Rodney

There's that key word... confidence, I guess it does matter.

Originally posted by jdbolick
No, it shouldn't. In the original thread I calculated the probability of 5 fumbles in 12 carries happening randomly without a turnover penalty and it was something like 1 out of 700,000.

Wait, so now your made up percentage chances of a fumble should now be used to create probabilities and these should be extrapolated and applied to some fix that no one here agrees with?

You completely lack any sort of tact. Rather than come to agreement on a compromise to solve the problem, everyone is wrong and you are right. You got far with this suggestion by atacking people's character. Well done. Good show.

Keep in mind that you are basing this on one fucking game (maybe a few others out of thousands), an unproven way the sim actually operates, not knowing the defensive builds, and you shift between using the NFL as an example while ignoring it in other aspects of the game.

Basically, its been fun. Thanks. Watch your idea die.

Originally posted by driftinggrifter
The main problem I have is that you want to correct the blotted defensive stats without wanting to correct all the bloated offensive stats. There needs to be a balance. The defense has been getting neutered for seasons now. I asked you about your offensive players production cuz they are far from realistic. Just like the high number of fumbles. If you want to make one aspect more realistic the, you need to do so in all phases.

A truer statement has not been posted in this thread.

Also, maybe Bort is looking at this all wrong. Morale should be an in-game, individual stat only. It should reset just like energy every game. Morale for a team/player hardly goes down throughout the season. Set it to 50 for everyone for every game. It slowly goes up and slowly goes down as you make or miss big plays. Then relate this to confidence. A bad play costs you less with high confidence and a good play gives you better gains to morale. Just lessen the effects so that max is like +5% to attributes and minimum is -5% to attributes. Confidence would become important again.

The team aspect of morale is kind of a miss, imo. I like it in theory, but I think that making it more of an individual aspect is a better bet.

By the way guys I did an experiment that proves that punting reduces the chance to fumble. Look at this guy: http://goallineblitz.com/game/player_game_log.pl?player_id=788396

no fumbles all season because of his excellent, superior build and the fact that we know that punting effects your chance to fumble

obviously he has 0% chance to fumble (stat may not be accurate, but I'll point to it later like it is)

since we've now SEEN that fumbles are effected by punting we should all start getting punting in order to stop this fumbling epidemic! Just a little bit of punting is enough to reduce your chances to fumble down to 0% (see the previous stat)

Originally posted by jdbolick
Originally posted by gijosh

theres lots of fumbles. because no matter how much you teach a kid to have 5 points of contact on the ball..."eagle claw" when it comes time to play a game, they have trouble translating the skill until they much more practice at it...
Wth time and levels, players will learn not to fumble.
You're absolutely right, but you're also describing the fact that fumbling is about insufficient skill in securing the football, not an emotional response to a previous fumble.


Thats been my point the whole time. I disagree with the emotional response.. to a point.

I can see where if a HB continues to run the same route, and he keeps gettign beat up by the same guys, he will be scared everytime he runs that way. Also if he;s tired he will fumble more.

The problme is you cant tell if it was a fumble based off of emotional response, or skill.. we can only know it was a fumble.

Originally posted by Chysil
By the way guys I did an experiment that proves that punting reduces the chance to fumble. Look at this guy: http://goallineblitz.com/game/player_game_log.pl?player_id=788396

no fumbles all season because of his excellent, superior build and the fact that we know that punting effects your chance to fumble

obviously he has 0% chance to fumble (stat may not be accurate, but I'll point to it later like it is)

since we've now SEEN that fumbles are effected by punting we should all start getting punting in order to stop this fumbling epidemic! Just a little bit of punting is enough to reduce your chances to fumble down to 0% (see the previous stat)




LoL

Turnovers cause a loss of confidence and sways the flow of a game, it affects everything. Statistically speaking, in football, teams the give up at least one turnover usually end up with multiple turnovers, rather than just having one.

Originally posted by Chysil
By the way guys I did an experiment that proves that punting reduces the chance to fumble. Look at this guy: http://goallineblitz.com/game/player_game_log.pl?player_id=788396

no fumbles all season because of his excellent, superior build and the fact that we know that punting effects your chance to fumble

obviously he has 0% chance to fumble (stat may not be accurate, but I'll point to it later like it is)

since we've now SEEN that fumbles are effected by punting we should all start getting punting in order to stop this fumbling epidemic! Just a little bit of punting is enough to reduce your chances to fumble down to 0% (see the previous stat)



He's a RB on a undefeated team who hasn't fumbled once!

/thread

Also, doesn't this hurt the competition factor for lower leveled teams going against higher leveled teams. Based on builds, the higher-leveled team would have the advantage no matter what, even if the opposing defense was able to cause a turnover.

Originally posted by Virgin Goldstandard
Also, doesn't this hurt the competition factor for lower leveled teams going against higher leveled teams. Based on builds, the higher-leveled team would have the advantage no matter what, even if the opposing defense was able to cause a turnover.

It flies in the face of what Bort intended by including morale (from what I can gather). This would destroy his attempt at allowing upsets entirely. Granted, it is still primarily about builds/levels and game planning, but the OPs suggestion would get rid of the momentum factor that was the initial idea behind morale. It could be tweaked, but to do away with it entirely? No. This is also ignoring the fact that the game is already harder on the defense. The one thing we had going for us this season is now getting a patch. Fuck it.

The OP is only worth arguing with for entertainment value.

Originally posted by Chysil
By the way guys I did an experiment that proves that punting reduces the chance to fumble. Look at this guy: http://goallineblitz.com/game/player_game_log.pl?player_id=788396

no fumbles all season because of his excellent, superior build and the fact that we know that punting effects your chance to fumble

obviously he has 0% chance to fumble (stat may not be accurate, but I'll point to it later like it is)

since we've now SEEN that fumbles are effected by punting we should all start getting punting in order to stop this fumbling epidemic! Just a little bit of punting is enough to reduce your chances to fumble down to 0% (see the previous stat)



that's bs i put my punter in at HB and he fumbled 20 times in 1 game despite having 90 punting

Originally posted by hugenuts
Originally posted by Chysil

By the way guys I did an experiment that proves that punting reduces the chance to fumble. Look at this guy: http://goallineblitz.com/game/player_game_log.pl?player_id=788396

no fumbles all season because of his excellent, superior build and the fact that we know that punting effects your chance to fumble

obviously he has 0% chance to fumble (stat may not be accurate, but I'll point to it later like it is)

since we've now SEEN that fumbles are effected by punting we should all start getting punting in order to stop this fumbling epidemic! Just a little bit of punting is enough to reduce your chances to fumble down to 0% (see the previous stat)



that's bs i put my punter in at HB and he fumbled 20 times in 1 game despite having 90 punting

well what's his carrying at?

http://goallineblitz.com/game/team.pl?team_id=2016

100 rushing attempts.

0 fumbles.

Fix your build k thx.

Originally posted by teamriots
I like where you're going here, because you're demanding an ACTUAL fix instead of band-aid repairs. The only problem I can see with this is the fact that Bort's middle name is actually "Band-Aid". I think his full name is Bortamus "Band Aid" Blitzowicz. All joking aside, I just don't see Bort digging deep and addressing the root of any problem, it's always a band-aid style fix that always leads to new problems.
I think two common problems are that Bort can't always figure out the root cause, and even when he can, that root cause might be much more difficult to fix than simply applying a band-aid solution. The GLB staff seems to be constantly behind, forcing these longer and longer off-seasons as they race to finish everything they want to. That leaves little time for truly analyzing any new code.



Originally posted by kretchfoop
Wait, so now your made up percentage chances of a fumble should now be used to create probabilities and these should be extrapolated and applied to some fix that no one here agrees with?
First, it would be nice if you could admit that you screwed up and said something stupid when you insisted that Tiki Barber was pulled out of that '02 Philadelphia for fumbling. I proved you wrong on that, so man up and admit your mistake. As for the rest, I didn't make up anything. Just because you've never been to grad school and therefore haven't taken Advanced Probability Theory, doesn't mean that no one else has either.

Originally posted by
You completely lack any sort of tact. Rather than come to agreement on a compromise to solve the problem, everyone is wrong and you are right.
Tact is for when I give a damn about the feelings of the people I'm talking to. Honestly, why should I care if me highlighting how wrong you are makes you feel bad? You're some random person on the internet, and moreover, your belligerent stupidity is interfering with my attempt to explain this situation and hopefully get it corrected. I'm "right" because I proved what I said, and you're wrong because I constantly prove that the statements you make are false. If that upsets you or damages your self-esteem, I don't really care.

Originally posted by
Keep in mind that you are basing this on one fucking game
I'm making an intuitive leap, yes, but not based on one game. I'm basing this on hundreds of absurd turnover results observed not only this season, but in Season 5 when this same sim issue was producing random high-interception games as well.

Originally posted by
Watch your idea die.
Quite possible that it will, perhaps even probable, but at least I know that I actually contributed to the understanding of a problem and proposed a solution that would actually fix it. When the GLB staff decides to do is far beyond my control, but I've done my part.


Originally posted by Virgin Goldstandard
Turnovers cause a loss of confidence and sways the flow of a game, it affects everything. Statistically speaking, in football, teams the give up at least one turnover usually end up with multiple turnovers, rather than just having one.
Incorrect. It is far, far more likely for a real life football team to have a 1 turnover game than a multiple turnover game. Moreover, as I noted earlier in this thread, that's even more true for individual players. No HB in the NFL last season had 3 fumbles in one game, and only 11 times all season did a HB even fumble twice in the same game.


Look, the people who can't understand the opening post should not bother to comment in this thread. The people who can understand it are free to disagree with either the conclusion or the proposed solution, and then we'll debate that. My concern remains that once a player has had a turnover, he then becomes more likely to have another turnover than someone with an inferior build. In my opinion, turnovers should be determined by builds and builds alone.