Originally posted by MrMike
The problem you see with Jacksonville is that, unless David Garrard is truly only a small step behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as an elite QB in the NFL, he's going to play much worse than he did last season. In 12 games, he threw 18 TDs and 3 Interceptions. Do you realize how absolutely insane that is? There's no way he can match that, unless he really is on the elite QB level.
Along with that, they had a pretty healthy year out of Fred Taylor, they traded Marcus Stroud--they've been very good for a while, but with all of the stuff that fell into place for them last year, its going to be tough for them to match what they did.
Yea, I'm starting to agree with you about the Jags. They'll have an alright year, but with the number of injuries or misfortunes they've sustained to an already suspect WR corps, they are going to taper off. The Jags, at least for a time, have a worse WR group than my Titans, and that is saying a lot.
Originally posted by
The Giants are going to face what every Champion (and runner-up) has had to deal with for the last few years--every team is gunning for them. They're not going to upset many teams that are better than them, as they won't make it in under the radar as the defending champs. They'll get every team's A-Game every week, which is alone enough to probably cost them a couple games.
If you define tapering off as not winning the superbowl, I can agree. If you define it as having a worse record than last year's 10-6, I don't see it unless they have a rash of injuries or Eli Manning completely melts down. With that defense, he could have a VY-esque 2007-2008 year and still "lead" the team to 10-6.
Originally posted by
I'm a huge Albert Haynesworth fan. I consider him one of the best DTs in the league.
Here's the problem though. Haynesworth gets hurt, and the Titans have no ability to stop the run. This says a lot about the importance of a great DT, but also says a lot about the Titans defense. Its a really risky thing to invest so much into a player.
Let's say Haynesworth doesn't get hurt though. Let's say he stays perfectly healthy. The Titans probably overachieved last year, so you can consider that. In addition, their schedule is really, really hard. First, they play in a division with Indy and a Houston team that could really surprise, as well as the similarly built Jacksonville. They're facing a very tough Division, with the Ravens, the Browns, the Steelers and the Bengals on their Division schedule.
Plus, what did they do to make themselves better? Is Alge Crumpler really that big of an improvement over the guy they already had? They made an awful decision with their first rounder, picking a career 3rd-down back who wastes steps to the line and will prove that speed means very little when there's no technique to back it up.
When everyone around you is improving, you can't stay the same. Its why many teams fall-off after successes. The focus becomes, "Let's keep everyone around" instead of finding the weaknesses others haven't picked up on and strengthening them.
The schedule is hard, but then again it was hard last season. When estimating our season, I look at Haynesworth as a guy that will be here for 13 of 16 games. I think that's a fair guess.
Your post basically comes at the argument that the Titans will taper off because they didn't improve and everyone around them improved. I'd like to look more at that. Since I can't rate "everyone else", I'll define it as divisional opponents to see if they indeed improved over this offseason.
Our division (AFC South):
Indy - Indy was great last season and I expect they'll be about the same this year. They lost Jake Scott (OG) last season and signed no free agents. They drafte The biggest issue for Indy is injuries. Their two most important players, Bob Sanders and Peyton Manning, are out with injuries. There is still time to get them healthy, but Manning will likely miss time. They also have numerous injuries to depth. Their draft was alright. That's one thing the Colts do very well, but they didn't have a first round draft pick and their 3rd rounder is out with an injury. No big improvement here. The one improvement is that Harrison is back and ready to play. I don't know that he'll last an entire season, but at best, the Colts are a little less than they were last season.
Jacksonville - The Jags were tough last season, but as you stated, they have a fair chance of tapering off due to a few free agent losses and a horrible string of injuries. No need to beat a dead horse, but it definitely looks like the Jags are going to be a little worse this season.
Houston - The Texans improved their offensive line, drafting an OT in the first round (who was a reach since so many were taken before their pick). The two biggest improvements for this team are found in their offensive lines coach, who is one of the best in the game, and getting QB Shaub and Andre Johnson healthy. The Texans will be slightly improved over last season. They have a very underrated defense, but they won't see dramatic improvement due to an anemic running game. Are they really relying on Ahman Green and Chris Brown to carry the load? Unless Steve Slaton does great things his rookie season (and he'll have a chance since Brown is made of glass and Green is made of grass), expect a one-dimensional offense and an 8-8 team.
In short, the Colts and the Jags did not see any real improvement during the offseason, mainly due to injuries. They likely will taper off slightly. Houston saw slight improvement, mainly by getting healthy and bolstering the offensive line (and coach). Still, they have never had a good running game, and without that consistency, it is hard to be successful. From what I can see, everyone "around us" is not improving.
Now, lets how if the Titans improved:
Losses
Travis Laboy and Antwan Odom, DEs. Starks, DT.
Jacob Bell and Benji Olson, OGs.
Chris Brown, RB.
Hartsock, Troupe TE.
Analysis
On the surface, the Titans lost a big part of their team during the offseason. If one looks deeper, they will see that all four key free agent losses were relatively minor.
Defensive End You seem to know that Haynesworth is the reason for success of Odom and LaBoy. Jevon Kearse, Jacob Ford, and Willie Hayes are either ancient or green, but if Haynesworth is healthy, they should be about as productive as their two DE losses. No tapering off there. Starks went to the Dolphins for a fat contract, which is odd as he has been completely invisible. You'll actually see improvement, as the depth on the line is quite improved. Jason Jones looks to be quite a steal for the Titans and is a big upgrade from the invisible Starks. Overall, the line is at least as good as last season.
Offensive LineJacob Bell is a solid OG. There is no doubt about that. Benji Olson was also very solid, but he spent a good portion of last season on the DL. Are these big losses? No. Jake Scott was brought in from the Colts, and he is even more solid that Bell. That's an upgrade. Eugene Amano filled in nicely last season for Benji Olson, and as such has proven that there will be no tapering off. The line is as good as last season.
Running GameChris Brown had a fairly good season in 2007-2008. However, he spent a large portion of last season injured, which is what happens when you're made of glass. LenDale White played hurt most of last season, so you should see improvement there. Ahmad Hall (starting FB) was out much of last season and is now back in action. In addition, we have Chris Johnson, the fastest man in the draft. I wasn't happy with the selection, but 66 yard TDs, even in the preseason, are beginning to change my mind.
TEs / Passing game We lost Ben Hartsock. He was a blocker with decent hands. We drafted TE Craig Stevens, who basically is a younger version of Hartsock and the best blocking TE in the draft. That's a wash. Our #1 TE, Bo Scaife, is now our #2. Scaife is alright at catching passes, but can't block. We replaced Ben "bust" Troupe, who could not block or catch, with Alge Crumpler who does both very well. That is an amazing upgrade. Is Crumpler healthy? Every indication points to "yes". Our WRs basically stayed the same. We added a 4th rounder to the mix and replaced Eric Moulds with Justin McCareins. WRs are slightly improved, only because they are very young and learning. Roydell Williams looks to return by the first game of the season. Overall, the passing game has improved slightly, but I'll bump that up to moderate improvement due to replacing Norm Chow with Mike Heimerdinger, who loves to use TEs in the passing game.
The biggest area of improvements is found in special teams. We brought in several special team standouts during the offseason, and drafted several others. Our biggest area of weakness last season was the return game, but 1st round pick Chris Johnson should at least be better than Chris Davis, who liked to fumble every third punt return. A statue or mannequin would actually be improvement.
Overall, the Titans have slightly improved while the Jags and Colts have slightly tapered off. It should be a good season, unless injuries hit our secondary. We have a decent secondary, but absolutely no depth. If two of the four starters go down with injuries, I'm predicting 5-11. Otherwise, we should be able to go 10-6 at least.