Warrior General Games

Originally posted by AgentTBC
Um. I could go on and on and on and on and on. But you get the point. Or you stopped reading a while back.

Did you say something? Don't get in the way of my whine!



PinTBC

Originally posted by AgentTBC
I believe it's because the formula simply looks at the win/loss records of the teams left to play. This is not a bad way to do it but it can break down in certain situations. I'll demonstrate:

Imagine if there were 105 games in a season (it doesn't have to be football). Now take two teams who are both really good and have 70 wins and 30 losses. 5 games remaining.

TEAM 1 plays opponents with the following records: 5-95, 5-95, 5-95, 95-5, 95-5.

TEAM 2 plays opponents with the following records: 40-60, 40-60, 40-60, 50-50, 50-50.

The formula here would say that TEAM 2 has the toughest schedule because the teams they are playing have a combined record of 220-280 while TEAM 1 is playing teams with a combined record of 205-295. That makes sense but it isn't the whole story because you don't play an aggregate of the teams you are left to face, you play individual teams. And after the 5 remaining games TEAM 1 is almost certain to go 3-2 while TEAM 2 is likely to go 4-1 and could possibly even go 5-0. They could go 3-2 just like TEAM 1, of course, but they have more potential to do better than 3-2 than TEAM 1 does because TEAM 1 is clearly worse than two of the teams they have left to play while TEAM 2 is better than all of the teams they have left to play.

In other words, the formula being used considers playing a series of mediocre teams to be harder than playing a bunch of very bad teams and a couple excellent teams.

I'm not criticizing the method; there are advantages and disadvantages to almost any system. But that's one way the method can be critiqued. Because it is NOT clear that playing a series of mediocre teams is harder than playing a series of some terrible teams and a few extremely good teams even if the combined record of those teams is worse than the record of the mediocre teams.

Um. I could go on. But you get the point. Or you stopped reading a while back.

I see your point, AgentTBC, but the formula takes PF and PA into account.

Originally posted by Paul Kemp

I see your point, AgentTBC, but the formula takes PF and PA into account.



That it does, PF and PA help the formula find trends in how tough a team is. If you go 0-8, but keep all your games close, you will show up as a tougher team on the strength of schedule than a team that goes 3-5, has 3 squeeker wins, but loses 5 by blowouts. As I said previously, it isn't perfect, but if you think you can make it better, go nuts


Here is the latest update,

Lion Conference

Toughest Remaining Schedule
Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Mogadishu On Khat 46 17 1 73% 1,741 643
2 Djibouti Black Mambas 42 21 1 66% 1,745 692
3 Cape Town White Sharks 40 24 0 63% 1,412 787
4 Rwanda Royal Knights 38 24 2 61% 1,575 811
5 Sun City Undertakers 37 26 1 59% 1,334 837
6 Botswana Bugeaters 36 26 2 58% 1,445 850
7 Bamako Bite 35 29 0 55% 1,127 893
8 Angola Spider Monkeys 32 31 1 51% 998 1,273
9 Congo Gorillas 28 34 2 45% 1,221 1,262
10 Gold Coast Raiders 28 35 1 45% 945 1,174
11 Cameroon Outlaws 25 38 1 40% 1,047 1,550
12 Sudan Snipers 25 38 1 40% 982 1,480
13 Dar Es Salaam Warrior Kings 25 38 1 40% 945 1,597
14 Barbary Coast Pirates 25 38 1 40% 921 1,602
15 Burundi Scorpions 21 42 1 34% 655 1,548
16 Wolfenstein Werewolves 21 43 0 33% 803 1,897

Projected Standings
Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Rwanda Royal Knights 16 0 0 100% 416 78
2 Cape Town White Sharks 15 0 1 97% 621 98
3 Wolfenstein Werewolves 14 1 1 91% 544 88
4 Botswana Bugeaters 13 3 0 81% 456 130
5 Barbary Coast Pirates 11 5 0 69% 444 192
6 Bamako Bite 10 6 0 63% 494 249
7 Mogadishu On Khat 9 7 0 56% 338 212
8 Dar Es Salaam Warrior Kings 9 7 0 56% 322 209
9 Sun City Undertakers 8 8 0 50% 328 222
10 Angola Spider Monkeys 7 9 0 44% 331 285
11 Sudan Snipers 5 11 0 31% 134 371
12 Djibouti Black Mambas 4 12 0 25% 135 471
13 Congo Gorillas 4 12 0 25% 78 379
14 Cameroon Outlaws 3 13 0 19% 137 374
15 Burundi Scorpions 1 15 0 6% 51 514
16 Gold Coast Raiders 0 16 0 0% 75 988


Elephant Conference

Toughest Remaining Schedule
Rk Team L T % PF PA
1 Hounds of Anubis 38 26 0 59% 1,120 933
2 Nambia Slugs 36 28 0 56% 1,181 878
3 USAORG Legionnaires 36 28 0 56% 1,079 1,043
4 Lake M'Zumba Cannibals 35 29 0 55% 1,206 896
5 Togo Party 35 29 0 55% 1,159 853
6 Angola Blood Diamonds 35 29 0 55% 1,116 921
7 Tangiers Cape Buffalo 35 29 0 55% 1,035 952
8 Babylon Bombshells 32 32 0 50% 912 1,237
9 Durban Donkeys 31 33 0 48% 1,116 966
10 Zambia Hungry Hungry Hippos 31 33 0 48% 1,035 1,021
11 Cairo Emperors 31 33 0 48% 942 1,163
12 West Coast Warriors 29 35 0 45% 882 1,234
13 Mali Mirage 28 36 0 44% 1,041 1,054
14 Liberia Cornhuskers 28 36 0 44% 921 1,186
15 Tsavo Man Eaters 26 38 0 41% 1,039 1,112
16 Conarky Coyotes 26 38 0 41% 896 1,231

Projected Standings
Rk Team L T % PF PA
1 Conarky Coyotes 16 0 0 100% 521 44
2 USAORG Legionnaires 14 2 0 88% 510 122
3 Cairo Emperors 14 2 0 88% 410 96
4 Mali Mirage 12 4 0 75% 409 179
5 Durban Donkeys 11 5 0 69% 306 140
6 Angola Blood Diamonds 11 5 0 69% 303 201
7 Babylon Bombshells 9 7 0 56% 348 203
8 Tsavo Man Eaters 9 7 0 56% 227 239
9 Zambia Hungry Hungry Hippos 9 7 0 56% 213 176
10 West Coast Warriors 6 10 0 38% 199 298
11 Togo Party 5 11 0 31% 194 379
12 Tangiers Cape Buffalo 4 12 0 25% 227 317
13 Nambia Slugs 4 12 0 25% 208 415
14 Liberia Cornhuskers 2 14 0 13% 143 398
15 Hounds of Anubis 2 14 0 13% 116 389
16 Lake M'Zumba Cannibals 0 16 0 0% 18 766


Have at it

Thanks, Tman. You might want to check your inputs though because it's showing Rwanda and Cape Town both with 0 losses.

I always make at least one mistake per set of games in USA A 3 too.

Originally posted by Paul Kemp
Thanks, Tman. You might want to check your inputs though because it's showing Rwanda and Cape Town both with 0 losses.

I always make at least one mistake per set of games in USA A 3 too.


For Rwanda, it shows the Cape Town game ending 11-11, and for Cape Town, it shows it ending 12-12.

Although neither one registers as a tie. Haha.

Originally posted by Paul Kemp
Thanks, Tman. You might want to check your inputs though because it's showing Rwanda and Cape Town both with 0 losses.

I always make at least one mistake per set of games in USA A 3 too.

Yeah, I looked at that too, and checked all the scores, I think it is a bug in the sheet. I noted the 11-11 and 12-12, but was confused why it had both teams with 0 losses, yet it predicted them to tie the game. Odd.

How can you have the Royal Knights and the White Sharks both undefeated, but we (Royal Knights) don't have a tie in the projected finish?

Originally posted by WylieCowboy
How can you have the Royal Knights and the White Sharks both undefeated, but we (Royal Knights) don't have a tie in the projected finish?




Magic

Originally posted by TMan
Originally posted by WylieCowboy

How can you have the Royal Knights and the White Sharks both undefeated, but we (Royal Knights) don't have a tie in the projected finish?




Magic

LOL. Have you asked Satchmo about it?

Looking for the latest update on this

Originally posted by 1freebird
Looking for the latest update on this

Lion
http://i297.photobucket.com/albums/mm217/RTJakarta/lion.jpg

Elephant
http://i297.photobucket.com/albums/mm217/RTJakarta/elephant.jpg

(Was too lazy to type all up, so I just took a s/s and uploaded it.

Well i think its probable we will lose to Conakry, but i believe we can win the other 5 games and finish with a strong 12-4 record. We had a huge win today over Cairo, upset of the week maybe, if not for angola beating usaorg.

i vote tie for upset of the week!

Nice win Donkeys. We (Durban and Angola) made a mess of the standings. Pretty crowded.

Originally posted by 1freebird
Looking for the latest update on this

Sorry guys, I was away for a couple of days, I'll update it later tonight and post it.

Here it is, again, my apologies, but real life does take priority At least according to my wife.

A couple of upsets the last 2 games have made it interesting, it is good to know that there is relative parity in Africa Pro. After 10 games it looks like this

Lion Conference

Toughest Remaining Schedule

Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Sun City Undertakers 41 18 1 69% 1,570 653
2 Mogadishu On Khat 40 19 1 68% 1,568 758
3 Cape Town White Sharks 38 22 0 63% 1,415 797
4 Djibouti Black Mambas 37 22 1 63% 1,696 689
5 Bamako Bite 37 23 0 62% 1,160 799
6 Botswana Bugeaters 34 24 2 58% 1,689 813
7 Rwanda Royal Knights 34 25 1 58% 1,580 846
8 Angola Spider Monkeys 34 25 1 58% 1,173 892
9 Wolfenstein Werewolves 26 34 0 43% 901 1,563
10 Sudan Snipers 25 34 1 43% 979 1,543
11 Congo Gorillas 24 35 1 41% 1,148 1,340
12 Gold Coast Raiders 24 36 0 40% 829 1,210
13 Dar Es Salaam Warrior Kings 22 37 1 38% 918 1,729
14 Barbary Coast Pirates 22 37 1 38% 833 1,819
15 Cameroon Outlaws 21 38 1 36% 984 1,769
16 Burundi Scorpions 15 45 0 25% 589 1,812

Predicted Ranking

Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Rwanda Royal Knights 16 0 0 100% 413 57
2 Wolfenstein Werewolves 14 1 1 91% 587 82
3 Cape Town White Sharks 14 1 1 91% 569 126
4 Botswana Bugeaters 13 3 0 81% 426 167
5 Bamako Bite 11 5 0 69% 471 250
6 Dar Es Salaam Warrior Kings 10 6 0 63% 381 197
7 Barbary Coast Pirates 10 6 0 63% 364 191
8 Mogadishu On Khat 8 8 0 50% 313 202
9 Angola Spider Monkeys 7 9 0 44% 433 245
10 Sun City Undertakers 7 9 0 44% 355 238
11 Djibouti Black Mambas 4 12 0 25% 162 438
12 Sudan Snipers 4 12 0 25% 131 403
13 Congo Gorillas 4 12 0 25% 101 377
14 Cameroon Outlaws 3 13 0 19% 170 395
15 Burundi Scorpions 2 14 0 13% 88 483
16 Gold Coast Raiders 0 16 0 0% 60 1,137


Elephant Conference

Toughest Remaining Schedule

Rk Team L T % PF PA
1 Lake M'Zumba Cannibals 36 24 0 60% 1,292 749
2 Tangiers Cape Buffalo 36 24 0 60% 1,058 839
3 Hounds of Anubis 35 25 0 58% 1,029 954
4 Nambia Slugs 32 28 0 53% 1,117 895
5 Angola Blood Diamonds 32 28 0 53% 1,063 939
6 Togo Party 31 29 0 52% 1,055 917
7 Zambia Hungry Hungry Hippos 31 29 0 52% 1,053 919
8 Liberia Cornhuskers 31 29 0 52% 1,045 943
9 Mali Mirage 31 29 0 52% 1,041 935
10 West Coast Warriors 31 29 0 52% 918 973
11 USAORG Legionnaires 30 30 0 50% 951 1,104
12 Conarky Coyotes 26 34 0 43% 893 1,188
13 Tsavo Man Eaters 25 35 0 42% 1,062 1,032
14 Cairo Emperors 25 35 0 42% 807 1,221
15 Durban Donkeys 24 36 0 40% 945 1,120
16 Babylon Bombshells 24 36 0 40% 733 1,334

Predicted Rankings

Rk Team L T % PF PA
1 Conarky Coyotes 16 0 0 100% 525 49
2 USAORG Legionnaires 13 3 0 81% 469 129
3 Cairo Emperors 13 3 0 81% 408 135
4 Durban Donkeys 12 4 0 75% 352 174
5 Mali Mirage 11 5 0 69% 372 211
6 Angola Blood Diamonds 11 5 0 69% 275 189
7 Tsavo Man Eaters 10 6 0 63% 225 208
8 Zambia Hungry Hungry Hippos 9 7 0 56% 232 174
9 Babylon Bombshells 7 9 0 44% 319 260
10 West Coast Warriors 7 9 0 44% 221 280
11 Togo Party 6 10 0 38% 240 323
12 Nambia Slugs 5 11 0 31% 224 362
13 Tangiers Cape Buffalo 4 12 0 25% 237 301
14 Liberia Cornhuskers 2 14 0 13% 139 419
15 Hounds of Anubis 2 14 0 13% 101 407
16 Lake M'Zumba Cannibals 0 16 0 0% 26 744

It looks like the week 9 game fixed the discrepancy with the tie not being counted as a tie. Then the week 10 game left no doubt as Rwanda took care of business. Glad that it didn't end in a tie, or it would have messed it up even more