Warrior General Games

I do like Mogadishu being in that 4 spot

But seriously, it is a bit ridiculous. We are ahead of the only two teams we lost to. And considerably ahead of Barbary Coast, who just got done mopping the floor with us. The teams we beat? 4 of our five wins came against teams with negative ratings in this post.

I understand the small sample size issue, but Moga should be in the six spot(at best) right now until we prove otherwise. When looking to improve the calculations, look where the changes move us, as we are probably the best gauge for it.

I appreciate the work you have put in and enjoy things like this. It's always best when you can say your own team is over rated to have some objectivity in critiquing things like this, so I thought I'd chime in.

Originally posted by throughyperspace
I do like Mogadishu being in that 4 spot

But seriously, it is a bit ridiculous. We are ahead of the only two teams we lost to. And considerably ahead of Barbary Coast, who just got done mopping the floor with us. The teams we beat? 4 of our five wins came against teams with negative ratings in this post.

I understand the small sample size issue, but Moga should be in the six spot(at best) right now until we prove otherwise. When looking to improve the calculations, look where the changes move us, as we are probably the best gauge for it.

I appreciate the work you have put in and enjoy things like this. It's always best when you can say your own team is over rated to have some objectivity in critiquing things like this, so I thought I'd chime in.

I will be honest when I say atm you are taking advantage of the system. You are padding stats against weaker teams which are inflating your numbers vs the fact the 2 teams that beat you though having better records, having an edge in SoS are suffering horribly from the score differential. You are scoring on avg 8-9 points more per game at this point in the season then either of them and giving up less then the pirates per game and barely more then the Wolfenstein.

With those factors they dont have enough point advantage coming from wins and the strngth of schedule is not very far off either at 3 between you and the higher of them.


3 points on SoS and win % doesnt garner much adv either when compared to the margin of victory advantage of over 8 point differential. Again i realize it isnt perfect but so far the Lion conference is the one throwing me wrenches lol. I am liking how elephant is turning out and after next game theirs should shuffle more accordingly as the SoS balances out more. I am just trying to figure out how to fix lion without losing elephant.

looks like the spider monkeez getting some love...good job Nicodareus...thanks for the update

sorry for delay but done

No problem. Rwanda still at #2 with a big game coming soon against Cape Town.

updated

Originally posted by Nicodareus
updated

Comparing common opponents, Bugeaters have fared better than the Sharks in the recent common opponents and against the better teams. The Sharks also have a worse record, yet they rank higher than the Bugeaters? Your math is hurting my head again, lol.

Can you delete the Raiders results from your methods, I wonder is that is skewing the results?

Majech thats funny...




Rwanda will never be number one... its just that Rwanda vs the world method...lol

Originally posted by majech
Originally posted by Nicodareus

updated

Comparing common opponents, Bugeaters have fared better than the Sharks in the recent common opponents and against the better teams. The Sharks also have a worse record, yet they rank higher than the Bugeaters? Your math is hurting my head again, lol.

Can you delete the Raiders results from your methods, I wonder is that is skewing the results?

Actually the Bugeaters have not played a tougher schedule. Slight edge but still harder goes to the Sharks. The other point being the Bugeaters have played Scorpions, Outlaws and Raiders. You just didnt do what other teams are doing which is major blowouts. Also a tie isnt a loss or a win so its hard to figure where that goes into calculations. As to better record its debatable because of the tie. Until this recent loss I couldnt really say they were not undeafeted. Now I can and have their win % lower then Bugeaters.

Look at the Werewolves all season until their 2 recent games. An (for all intents and purposes) undefeated team hanging in the 4th and 5th slot. Now they are scoring, granted against the bottom of the league but its helped put them where they should be.

Bugeaters -
Avg Points Scored - 27.24
Avg Scored Against - 8.64
SoS - 3.6


Sharks -
Avg Points Scored - 33.65
Avg Scored Against - 6.86
SoS - 3.9

Edit: Oh and I have been tailoring back the points scored when going above 100. They are not getting full credit for those scores but a very good chunk of them to try and keep a balance. Of the top 4 the Bugeaters have the lowest SoS, Least points Scored and Most Scored against. How is my math wrong?

Just busting your balls again. We did look very average in our fist game, but since we beat the lesser teams 40+ to nothing.

Our non-common opponents: Bot-Khat, Salaam, Mambas; Cape-Bite, Monk's, Wolves. Cape's opponents have better record, but Bot's opponents are not slouches. Cape has also play Scorpions, Outlaws, and Raiders. Bots beat Outlaws worse, but Cape beat Scorps worse. Cape also beat Raiders by WAY more, but they had thrown in the towel by then.

The tie does mess up win % with a team with out a loss, but now Cape has 8 wins in 10 games, 0.80, and Bots has 9 wins in 10 game, 0.90.

Regarding PPG scored. Cape is 6.4ppg better, but 4.1 of that came from Raiders game (88-47)/10. And comparing the top 4, Wolves played the Raiders at their weakest. I think you should competely remove them from equation. I don't think it is coincidence that Rwanda and Bots were within 5 points of each other regarding what they scored against the Raiders, and Cape and Wolves were WAY more.

Bots has better win percentage, better scores against most recent common opponents, and did better against the only 10 win team in the conference. Where's the love?

Wolves didnt get full credit on that win. As far as gutting. Unfortunatly it happens and it is nothing that can be controlled. The only good note is there will be a new team in each conference next season. I am hoping the Hounds dont become that team myself in the Elephant conference. They are also looking at methods of keeping the teams that arent gutted moving up and dropping teams that are gutted down. So if that goes through you will prbably start seeing teams moving up faster then normal and the lowest division getting cupcakes that are rebuilding.

I agree its not totally fair but I am not prepared to see what removing a whole team does to things seeing how teams have yet to play them. The bottom 3 teams have yet to really lay each other as well.

Assuming it all goes good then the Raiders will be gone next season as a team is promoted. So cheer on the Scorps and outlaws to win them! Who knows with my luck i could become the owner of the Raiders and be rebuilding next season.


Edit: Undertakers, Wolves, Sharks and Monkeez did not get full credit for their wins. Though they did get enough that is is unbalancing the results. Even if I cap all the games against Raiders to 50-0 that actually helps Capetown to go to #2 lol. Drops the Wolves to #3 and Rwanda becomes #1. Doesnt effect Bugeaters.

Originally posted by Nicodareus

Edit: Undertakers, Wolves, Sharks and Monkeez did not get full credit for their wins. Though they did get enough that is is unbalancing the results. Even if I cap all the games against Raiders to 50-0 that actually helps Capetown to go to #2 lol. Drops the Wolves to #3 and Rwanda becomes #1. Doesnt effect Bugeaters.

hmm.... interesting...

Heh,

You guys will have your day in the sun. We play each other soon!

Looking forward to some excellent matches.

PinTBC

PinTBC

I know. The time is coming. I am looking forward to the tough matchup.

I always get excited when we play tough teams. For some reason it makes the whole game planning, and tactics discussions very interesting.

Good Luck!

PinTBC