Warrior General Games

There is no way on earth your score prediction is even close in the outlaws, Orangebloods matchup. I cant see us laying that type of an egg on an Oklahoma team.
I am just saying.

I cut off part of his post by mistake,

He takes the average level of the starter in each spot, then gives them a score of 0-100 ona scaled percentage.

I did some toying with it a couple days ago, but I fucked the spreadsheet after I got a few teams though and ragedeleted it...

Here is the full post:

have developed a 100% mathematical (and therefore theoretically unbiased) power ranking system that I will be using to rank our Conference on a game-by-game basis. The official pre-season rankings won't be released until tonight after training and to hopefully include as many offseason boosts as possible, for optimal accuracy. In the meantime though, I want to use this post to fully disclose the formula. If you don't care, that's fair, this will definitely be tl;dr, so just enjoy the rankings when they come out. For the mathematically inclined though, enjoy:

The system has two components. One component is a power ranking based on the current starting lineup which I will explain first. The preseason rankings will be based entirely on this factor. The second component will an adjustment based on actual game results, that should hopefully, over time, account for errors in the roster rankings.

Roster Power Rankings: To begin with, I put every team's starting lineup in a spreadsheet. Right now, I'm looking ONLY at the level of each starter. Backups and builds are ignored (this is the primary source of error that component two will have to adjust for). CPU players are universally treated as the equivalent of a level 1 human player, regardless of the CPU's actual level. Holes in the lineup are treated as level 0. Each player is then graded against the other players at his position (WR1 and WR2 are considered separate positions, as are LOT and ROT, etc...). A player who is the highest level in the Conference at his position will be rated 100, anyone else will be linearly scaled (so if the best player were a 10, an 8 would become an 80, etc...).

Next, using the scaled player ratings, I give each team a separate rating in pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, and rush defense, using weighted averages of the players' relative importance to that aspect of the game. These are the crude formulas I'm using:

Pass Offense: (QB + (WR1 + WR2)/2 + TE/5 + (OL AVG)/2)/2.7
Rush Offense: (HB + FB/5 + (OL AVG))/2.2
Pass Defense: (CB1 + CB2 + (S AVG) + (DE AVG)*.75 + (LB AVG)/2)/4.25
Rush Defense: ((DT AVG) + (DE AVG)/2 + (LB AVG))/2.5

Then, I average the pass and run numbers together to get overall Offense and Defense rankings, and finally I average these numbers together to give the team its final Overall Power Ranking.

Adjustments: The power ranking is obviously not perfect. It will change each week as rosters change and players level up, but it also has systematic flaws that will get exposed when teams are "upset" by lower rated teams. To adjust for these upsets, any team that defeats a higher rated team (based on roster ratings AT GAME TIME) will receive an "upset bonus" equal to the difference in roster ratings. The higher rated team will receive an equal "upset penalty". These bonuses and penalties will be capped at 5-10, I'm not sure yet. Teams that are overrated in the roster ratings (because they lack depth, or their starters are poorly built and perform below their level, or because of poor game planning and tactics, or whatever other reason) will see their ranking drop, even as their roster rating remains high, as they lose games they "shouldn't" have. Underrated teams, with positive intangibles, will similarly see their ranking rise.

Originally posted by Cerneo
I cut off part of his post by mistake,

He takes the average level of the starter in each spot, then gives them a score of 0-100 ona scaled percentage.

I did some toying with it a couple days ago, but I fucked the spreadsheet after I got a few teams though and ragedeleted it...

Were my numbers almost correct?

Originally posted by Whatsdafus
Originally posted by Cerneo

I cut off part of his post by mistake,

He takes the average level of the starter in each spot, then gives them a score of 0-100 ona scaled percentage.

I did some toying with it a couple days ago, but I fucked the spreadsheet after I got a few teams though and ragedeleted it...

Were my numbers almost correct?

As far as I know yes.

But to be fair, I am not very math inclined heh.

i like his formula... just hate that its only based on starters. that would have worked awesome last year, but this year starters i say are 60 to 70% of the game and that isnt 100% then.

I logged on my brother account and posted this in a pro team forum. the team is made up of stat nerds. so i posted everything including the # and a wish to add to the formulas for depth to be included.. lets see if they can work it out for us.

Yeah but other than just looking at all the teams depth wise it seems the only good way.

Maybe some sort of depth score? Avg level of all depth players shown next to the over all starters score?

Just to play around with it....

As is:
Pass Offense: (QB + (WR1 + WR2)/2 + TE/5 + (OL AVG)/2)/2.7

for depth:
Pass Offense: (QB + (QB depth avg)/4 + (WR1 + WR2)/2 + (Wr depth avg)/4 + TE/5 + (TE depth avg)/4 + (OL AVG)/2 + (OL depth avg)/4)/2.7

I put the /4 to say 25% of the time they are in the game. so qb depth would be qb2 + qb3 + so on and so forth.

Well my second QB had under 5 plays last game, the new stamina settings seem have changed that for alot of spots. Although I am sure if I did Spheres without depth having some impact you would not be able to see us at HB/DT/DE and so on.

Originally posted by Cerneo
Well my second QB had under 5 plays last game, the new stamina settings seem have changed that for alot of spots. Although I am sure if I did Spheres without depth having some impact you would not be able to see us at HB/DT/DE and so on.

Roster link.... i see all your players

Originally posted by Whatsdafus
Originally posted by Cerneo

Well my second QB had under 5 plays last game, the new stamina settings seem have changed that for alot of spots. Although I am sure if I did Spheres without depth having some impact you would not be able to see us at HB/DT/DE and so on.

Roster link.... i see all your players

Ah good idea.

Originally posted by Cerneo
Originally posted by Whatsdafus

Power rankings?

I hate you.

Yes I wanna see da power rankings!

Cerneo your doing a great job man. I for one dont need power rankings I'll just let the win/loss record show us who is who.

Originally posted by Cerneo



Texas Roughnecks vs. The Real Austin Longhorns West

Roughnecks pick up a win over the seemingly bipolar Real Austin.



No score prediction for this game?

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Oops.