Warrior General Games

Originally posted by Parab00n
Peeti, you are having a bad day in the English department. Thankfully I'm not on any German sites or it would be much worse for me.

You know whats sad? I re-read my post 5 times and still didnt find any mistakes Anyway...still trying to figure out that scouting tool thingy

The last session of posts are just

Originally posted by TxSteve
must create fake persona to remain undiscovered.


May I suggest: super friendly, nice, kind, loving personality for Tank.


I'm on board with this. Great idea.

With the Goal Line play removal, I was looking through Stobie's statistics for S9 Rookie.

Here's what I found. The following data is from the +- 20 tab.

Average Running yards per play by WR set:
5WR: 710 yards on 353 plays for 2.01 avg
4WR: 12,364 yards on 3063 plays for 4.04 avg
3WR: 15,390 yards on 4767 plays for 3.23 avg
2WR: 48,464 yards on 14631 plays for 3.31 avg
2TE: 17,711 yards on 5348 plays for 3.31 avg
GL: 33,854 yards on 5312 plays for 6.37 avg (includes removed plays)
GL (new): 4,715 yards on 1509 plays for 3.12 avg

Average Passing yards per play by WR set: (this includes Sacks)
5WR: 12,327 yards on 3192 plays for 3.86 avg
4WR: 10,770 yards on 2685 plays for 4.01 avg
3WR: 88,183 yards on 20422 plays for 4.32 avg
2WR: 54,043 yards on 14872 plays for 3.63 avg
2TE: 28,535 yards on 6482 plays for 4.40 avg
GL: 11 yards on 31 plays for .35 avg

All Plays:
Rushing: 128,494 yards on 33,474 plays for 3.84 avg
Rushing (new): 99,354 yards on 29,671 plays for 3.35 avg
Passing: 193,870 yards on 47,684 plays for 4.07 avg

Previously, Passing was 5.9% better than Rushing (relatively insignificant) but with the removed GL plays Passing was better by 21.49%.

Should Rookie Rushing be buffed slightly? Thoughts…..

Going to be switching over to S10 tonight. So if you haven't extended subscription your access will be gone tomorrow. But no worries you can always sign back up and not lose any players/rosters you have created.

Originally posted by Xars


Previously, Passing was 5.9% better than Rushing (relatively insignificant) but with the removed GL plays Passing was better by 21.49%.

Should Rookie Rushing be buffed slightly? Thoughts…..


Going to go out on a limb here....Xars -- are you building a rookie running team by chance?

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We should further buff early pass...Saying it for weeks now!

Originally posted by TxSteve
Going to go out on a limb here....Xars -- are you building a rookie running team by chance?

Yeah but I was doing it more for building my defense.

The math is pretty simple:

Rushing: 3.35 avg x 3 = 10.05 yards. Barely a First Down.
Passing: 4.07 avg x 3 = 12.21 yards. First down by +22.1%.

Now I know all about distributions, bell curves, confidence intervals, etc. so let's not get into high end statistical analysis unless we really need to.

just laughing that your pro passing schtick that has gone on for several seasons makes a U-turn when it benefits what you're trying to do personally.

Originally posted by TxSteve
just laughing that your pro passing schtick that has gone on for several seasons makes a U-turn when it benefits what you're trying to do personally.

I've had a running team before. I'm not that pro passing. I try to be balanced. It may not seem that way, but that's how I approach it.

It could be that I'm way better at Passing than Rushing though as my Rushing teams haven't done anywhere near as well.

To be clear- I agree with you in predicting struggles for all running teams at rookie.

Without the cheese of GL Sweep and GL QB Rollout Spam to get some easy points on the board - my prediction is that scores for running teams will be way, way down.

I wish Stobie could go back and analyze the stunners in season 3 (rookie) - and see what we were able to do (my guess is not much). We cheesed the QB rollouts - and cheesed the GL HB sweeps for a lot of our yards...and we benefited because back then people still often left the spread inside runs open...

Of course since then we've seen:
- break block buffs (needed)
- break tackle nerfs (slow down)
- blocking skills cost nerfs (effects all)

Besides that though - your data above is flawed, as it includes teams who aren't run focused. It includes teams that run preset offenses. It includes junk teams who try to be balanced but aren't good at it. It includes passing teams who run for 3rd and 1.

So you're taking all data - and assigning the data to all run or mostly run teams. That isn't fair.

Looking at Erkner (yes - I'm also skewing the data by choosing the #2 teams - but I don't know anything about Rookie from last season to choose a more middling team).
2TE inside: 2.9 ypc
2TE outside: 7.2 ypc

2WR inside: 4.2
2WR outside: 7.9

3WR inside: 3.1
3WR outside: 6.4

4WR inside: 6.4
4WR outside: 3.9 (way more than 50% TFL which I assume includes the 5-2 pre pitch blow up)

Overall that is: 5.6 per
Inside: 4.6
Outside: 6.8

(also I think another significant change this season will be the new D play that does a very good job at stopping the strong side 2WR sweep - sure it opens up the weak side...but my team really struggled to run any weak side stuff in rookie season (due to fast blitzing LB's I think) though it looks like Erkner was able to run it some)

So yes - again - my data is also skewed here away from balanced or average teams...but this is surely closer to what you can expect to see with your team. In addition - with the current perception (based in part on blood sweat and beers) I expect you will see an influx of passing teams in rookie -- and that will lead to an influx in passing focused defenses -- and that will lead to a meta that makes running pretty strong. So it is possible this is the very best time to start a running team (stunners started right after season 2 where passing was near unstoppable if you could avoid the plays that got DAG'd)

Originally posted by TxSteve

So you're taking all data - and assigning the data to all run or mostly run teams. That isn't fair.


Global data is all we have. Plus we're talking over 100,000 plays on both sides of the ball. It's a pretty big sample. It's not fair, but nothing really is.

Here's the data from Vet:

Average Rushing yards per play from WR set:
4WR: 16,238 yards on 3246 plays for 5.01 avg
3WR: 16,284 yards on 3315 plays for 4.91 avg
2WR: 85,421 yards on 16199 plays for 5.27 avg
2TE: 14,258 yards on 3039 plays for 4.69 avg
GL: 27,475 yards on 3677 plays for 7.47 avg
GL (new): 10,586 yards on 1550 plays for 6.83 avg

Average Passing yards per play from WR set:
5WR: 9,363 yards on 1864 plays for 5.02 avg
4WR: 31,204 yards on 5721 plays for 5.45 avg
3WR: 161,932 yards on 26368 plays for 6.14 avg
2WR: 67,965 yards on 12225 plays for 5.56 avg
2TE: 23,304 yards on 4443 plays for 5.25 avg
GL: -3 yards on 9 plays for -.33 avg

All Plays:
Rushing: 159,695 yards on 29,476 plays for 5.42 avg
Rushing (new): 142,806 yards on 27,349 plays for 5.22 avg
Passing: 293,764 yards on 50,630 plays for 5.80 avg

Right - its all we have -- that doesn't make it useful. Have you seen how many garbage teams are in Vet?

The (Vet) math is pretty simple:

Rushing: 5.22 avg x 3 = 15.66 yards. First Down by +56.6%.
Passing: 5.80 avg x 3 = 17.4 yards. First down by +74.0%.

Because of distributions, etc. both are viable and probably have more similar First Down conversion %.

Offense scales better than Defense. I think we knew that.

What my previous posts should show is that Rookie Rushing has a First Down conversion % significantly less than Rookie Passing, while at Vet Rushing and Passing are more even in their effectiveness.