Warrior General Games

Originally posted by topcat
Nice, except, my crystal ball AND magic 8 ball tells me Zambia Hungry Hungry Hippos not only make the playoffs but kick their butt!

That is a good team that's for sure. We will have our hands full. No doubt.

Originally posted by topcat
Nice, except, my crystal ball AND magic 8 ball tells me Zambia Hungry Hungry Hippos not only make the playoffs but kick their butt!

How the hell can take make the playoffs and kick their own butt????

Originally posted by SheVegas
Originally posted by topcat

Nice, except, my crystal ball AND magic 8 ball tells me Zambia Hungry Hungry Hippos not only make the playoffs but kick their butt!

How the hell can take make the playoffs and kick their own butt????

hmmmm valid point.... I guess you'll have to watch and see

Well, we we're projected to not win another game at 2-14, now we're not predicted to win another that we will finish 3-13. Someone's going to be disappointed when we beat the system 2 weeks in a row.

I think we deserve just a little more credit.

Originally posted by Phil147
Well, we we're projected to not win another game at 2-14, now we're not predicted to win another that we will finish 3-13. Someone's going to be disappointed when we beat the system 2 weeks in a row.


I'd love nothing better than to see it happen! Upsets make this far more fun

Originally posted by vinhm05
I think we deserve just a little more credit.

Then play better!

This is a total mathematical projection, I input nothing other than the last game's score. My opinion on your team does not come into the equation.

Nice work Tman,

I'll have to agree with Pin though, I don't see us as having that easy of a schedule left in the season, when we still need to play the #1 and #2 teams in our conference, but I do like you predicting us to be in first at the end!

Course Nicodareus has us predicted to be 5th, so who knows.

Originally posted by MadDogTBC
Nice work Tman,

I'll have to agree with Pin though, I don't see us as having that easy of a schedule left in the season, when we still need to play the #1 and #2 teams in our conference, but I do like you predicting us to be in first at the end!

Course Nicodareus has us predicted to be 5th, so who knows.

Not a prediction. It is current and i must say atm I feel good about my formula however when I look at Lion Conference. You guys are throwing me a huge huge wrench to clog things up and make them look ugly. 1 more game then I will take another look and see if I can fine tune it more without throwing it out of balance.

Here is the update after game 7. Lots of movement at the top of Lion conference as the top 4 jockey for position. Elephant's biggest shake ups were in the lower ranges as the top teams kept their placings.

Lion Conference

Toughest Remaining Schedule

Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Djibouti Black Mambas 42 20 1 67% 1,624 641
2 Mogadishu On Khat 42 20 1 67% 1,467 681
3 Sun City Undertakers 36 26 1 58% 1,280 786
4 Rwanda Royal Knights 35 26 2 57% 1,314 837
5 Botswana Bugeaters 34 27 2 56% 1,241 830
6 Cape Town White Sharks 35 28 0 56% 1,172 835
7 Bamako Bite 32 31 0 51% 1,041 1,100
8 Sudan Snipers 29 32 2 48% 996 1,221
9 Dar Es Salaam Warrior Kings 29 33 1 47% 1,079 1,308
10 Gold Coast Raiders 29 33 1 47% 934 1,091
11 Angola Spider Monkeys 29 33 1 47% 879 1,260
12 Congo Gorillas 28 33 2 46% 1,113 1,167
13 Cameroon Outlaws 27 34 2 44% 1,079 1,313
14 Barbary Coast Pirates 25 37 1 40% 842 1,400
15 Burundi Scorpions 22 40 1 36% 681 1,375
16 Wolfenstein Werewolves 21 42 0 33% 763 1,660


Projected Standings

Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Cape Town White Sharks 15 0 1 97% 664 50
2 Rwanda Royal Knights 15 1 0 94% 444 78
3 Wolfenstein Werewolves 14 1 1 91% 635 103
4 Botswana Bugeaters 13 3 0 81% 482 119
5 Barbary Coast Pirates 12 4 0 75% 506 157
6 Mogadishu On Khat 10 6 0 63% 366 232
7 Dar Es Salaam Warrior Kings 9 7 0 56% 307 208
8 Bamako Bite 8 8 0 50% 381 283
9 Sun City Undertakers 7 9 0 44% 298 256
10 Angola Spider Monkeys 7 9 0 44% 291 280
11 Sudan Snipers 6 10 0 38% 142 387
12 Djibouti Black Mambas 4 12 0 25% 123 528
13 Congo Gorillas 4 12 0 25% 83 390
14 Cameroon Outlaws 2 14 0 13% 98 370
15 Gold Coast Raiders 1 15 0 6% 86 914
16 Burundi Scorpions 0 16 0 0% 40 522


Elephant Conference

Toughest Remaining Schedule

Rk Team L T % PF PA
1 Hounds of Anubis 37 26 0 59% 1,125 871
2 Togo Party 35 28 0 56% 1,197 780
3 Lake M'Zumba Cannibals 34 29 0 54% 1,099 906
4 Cairo Emperors 34 29 0 54% 1,047 978
5 USAORG Legionnaires 34 29 0 54% 1,027 1,021
6 Nambia Slugs 33 30 0 52% 1,088 934
7 Angola Blood Diamonds 33 30 0 52% 1,034 978
8 Tangiers Cape Buffalo 33 30 0 52% 1,006 931
9 Zambia Hungry Hungry Hippos 32 31 0 51% 1,026 997
10 Durban Donkeys 31 32 0 49% 1,054 955
11 Conarky Coyotes 29 34 0 46% 948 1,046
12 Mali Mirage 29 34 0 46% 935 1,027
13 Liberia Cornhuskers 29 34 0 46% 915 1,125
14 Babylon Bombshells 29 34 0 46% 881 1,177
15 West Coast Warriors 29 34 0 46% 854 1,160
16 Tsavo Man Eaters 23 40 0 37% 901 1,251


Projected Standings

Rk Team L T % PF PA
1 Conarky Coyotes 16 0 0 100% 517 35
2 USAORG Legionnaires 14 2 0 88% 532 132
3 Cairo Emperors 14 2 0 88% 384 93
4 Mali Mirage 12 4 0 75% 415 179
5 Durban Donkeys 11 5 0 69% 327 137
6 Angola Blood Diamonds 11 5 0 69% 320 220
7 Zambia Hungry Hungry Hippos 11 5 0 69% 217 162
8 Tsavo Man Eaters 9 7 0 56% 185 258
9 Babylon Bombshells 8 8 0 50% 289 231
10 West Coast Warriors 6 10 0 38% 199 319
11 Tangiers Cape Buffalo 5 11 0 31% 221 299
12 Togo Party 5 11 0 31% 202 380
13 Nambia Slugs 3 13 0 19% 196 405
14 Liberia Cornhuskers 2 14 0 13% 162 407
15 Hounds of Anubis 2 14 0 13% 120 341
16 Lake M'Zumba Cannibals 0 16 0 0% 22 716


There you go, and comparing what you see in Nicodareus' Power Rankings to what this projector says isn't a fair comparison. If I understand correctly, his picks which teams are the best now, where this tries to predict who will end up where when the dust settles, both experimental, and fun, but looking at different ends of the spectrum. If I am wrong on this Nico, feel free to jump al over me

On a side note, was fun to see Djibouti buck the trend again, keep it going boys, it has made a little game for me, seeing how many times you can buck the trend.

Nope its about right. Prediction vs current. In the end hope they match up close or else I am going to have to remake everything lol.

Originally posted by Nicodareus


Not a prediction. It is current and i must say atm I feel good about my formula however when I look at Lion Conference. You guys are throwing me a huge huge wrench to clog things up and make them look ugly. 1 more game then I will take another look and see if I can fine tune it more without throwing it out of balance.
I gotta fall in here...

We play(Werewolves) the best two teams coming up. You have us as the easiest schedule remaining?

Sorry. That is false.

Originally posted by Pyron
Originally posted by Nicodareus



Not a prediction. It is current and i must say atm I feel good about my formula however when I look at Lion Conference. You guys are throwing me a huge huge wrench to clog things up and make them look ugly. 1 more game then I will take another look and see if I can fine tune it more without throwing it out of balance.
I gotta fall in here...

We play(Werewolves) the best two teams coming up. You have us as the easiest schedule remaining?

Sorry. That is false.



Wrong guy but ok?? I do the Power Rankings List, and not the Colley matrix one either hehe

Originally posted by Pyron
Originally posted by Nicodareus



Not a prediction. It is current and i must say atm I feel good about my formula however when I look at Lion Conference. You guys are throwing me a huge huge wrench to clog things up and make them look ugly. 1 more game then I will take another look and see if I can fine tune it more without throwing it out of balance.
I gotta fall in here...

We play(Werewolves) the best two teams coming up. You have us as the easiest schedule remaining?

Sorry. That is false.




6 of your final 9 games are against teams with current records of 2-5 or worse, including 3 winless teams. I would say you arguably have the easiest remaining schedule.

You gotta forgive Py. He is known as one of our crotchety old guys

But he is correct. How do we have the easiest remaingin schedule but still have the Bugeaters and Rwanda left to play?

I'm hoping that we do as well as you are predicting, but I still think you have something a bit off in your strength of schedule.

PinTBC

I believe it's because the formula simply looks at the win/loss records of the teams left to play. This is not a bad way to do it but it can break down in certain situations. I'll demonstrate:

Imagine if there were 105 games in a season (it doesn't have to be football). Now take two teams who are both really good and have 70 wins and 30 losses. 5 games remaining.

TEAM 1 plays opponents with the following records: 5-95, 5-95, 5-95, 95-5, 95-5.

TEAM 2 plays opponents with the following records: 40-60, 40-60, 40-60, 50-50, 50-50.

The formula here would say that TEAM 2 has the toughest schedule because the teams they are playing have a combined record of 220-280 while TEAM 1 is playing teams with a combined record of 205-295. That makes sense but it isn't the whole story because you don't play an aggregate of the teams you are left to face, you play individual teams. And after the 5 remaining games TEAM 1 is almost certain to go 3-2 while TEAM 2 is likely to go 4-1 and could possibly even go 5-0. They could go 3-2 just like TEAM 1, of course, but they have more potential to do better than 3-2 than TEAM 1 does because TEAM 1 is clearly worse than two of the teams they have left to play while TEAM 2 is better than all of the teams they have left to play.

In other words, the formula being used considers playing a series of mediocre teams to be harder than playing a bunch of very bad teams and a couple excellent teams.

I'm not criticizing the method; there are advantages and disadvantages to almost any system. But that's one way the method can be critiqued. Because it is NOT clear that playing a series of mediocre teams is harder than playing a series of some terrible teams and a few extremely good teams even if the combined record of those teams is worse than the record of the mediocre teams.

Um. I could go on. But you get the point. Or you stopped reading a while back.