Warrior General Games

Originally posted by RunningMn9
Originally posted by krwynn
There is no strength of schedule in a round robin situation as all teams play each other except for their last game.Or in Week 10 when you don't have the same common opponents yet.Also in situations where team strengths change during the course of a season, strength of schedule makes sense. If, say, there was one team that didn't boost its primary players until Week8, then you need to apply less weight to games prior to Week8.

Originally posted by The Meal
Originally posted by RunningMn9

Originally posted by krwynn

There is no strength of schedule in a round robin situation as all teams play each other except for their last game.Or in Week 10 when you don't have the same common opponents yet.Also in situations where team strengths change during the course of a season, strength of schedule makes sense. If, say, there was one team that didn't boost its primary players until Week8, then you need to apply less weight to games prior to Week8.


There is no strength of schedule for teams that play each other once. Winning percentage is all that is needed. Any place you look for information on round robin schedules will tell you exactly the same thing.

http://sebaseball.kislanko.com/PASOS/present.html

Originally posted by

If you took a team and magically let them play an infinite number of games against every other team, or at least a few hundred so the random bounces all evened out, they would win a certain percentage of these games. I call that percentage their Theoretical Winning Percentage, or TWP. If we did this with everyone, we would have the truest possible measure of team quality.

Now, for any given game, there's a formula, given an accurate winning percentage for each team, for how likely one team is to win. If a team's winning percentage is P and their opponent's winning percentage is Q, then the likelihood that they win is

P x (1 - Q)
-------------------------
P x (1 - Q) + Q x (1 - P)

Your source does not take into account the effect I was posting about. If you're looking to determine team strength (a ranking of a team's power, or "power ranking" for short) based on its performance, round-robin scheduling or not, you need to take into account the relative strength of the teams it has faced at the time it faced them.

If you're looking for a method to determine who makes the playoffs or have some other arbitrary goal in mind, then you are free to use whatever system grabs your nads, including one that ranks a teams kicking performance with the same weight as the teams defence.

Originally posted by The Meal
Your source does not take into account the effect I was posting about. If you're looking to determine team strength (a ranking of a team's power, or "power ranking" for short) based on its performance, round-robin scheduling or not, you need to take into account the relative strength of the teams it has faced at the time it faced them.

If you're looking for a method to determine who makes the playoffs or have some other arbitrary goal in mind, then you are free to use whatever system grabs your nads, including one that ranks a teams kicking performance with the same weight as the teams defence.

You said "strenghth of schedule". There is no such thing with round robin schedules. Period.

My previous post does exactly what you're looking for. It determines team strength.

Originally posted by krwynn
You said "strenghth of schedule". There is no such thing with round robin schedules. Period.

My previous post does exactly what you're looking for. It determines team strength.


Why are you so stubborn when you are wrong (SEE: YAC debate)?

There is no such thing with round robin schedules AS LONG AS THE TWO TEAMS YOU ARE COMPARING HAVE PLAYED EXACTLY THE SAME OPPONENTS. Which won't be true until after Week 15. After Week 10, the Falcons and I only had something like 5 common opponents. So after Week 10 (or whenever it was), it mattered that the PAIN had a harder schedule to that point.

After Week 15, strength of schedule can still matter to some degree - but determining it would be more complicated than it's worth. In a real game, it would be easier because playing the Cardinals in Week 2 may not be all that different than playing the Cardinals in Week 12 (injuries notwithstanding). In this game, playing them at those different times might be very different because of player turnover, the way that the Cardinals chose to build their players between Week 2 and Week 12, etc.

The differences are real, but far too burdensome to calculate for our purposes. You have to remember that this is a game, and not real life - so real life systems may not apply the way that you think they do (and in this case they don't).

Also, knowing The Meal as I do, I really wouldn't recommend getting into a statistical debate with him.

Originally posted by RunningMn9
Originally posted by krwynn

You said "strenghth of schedule". There is no such thing with round robin schedules. Period.

My previous post does exactly what you're looking for. It determines team strength.


Why are you so stubborn when you are wrong (SEE: YAC debate)?

There is no such thing with round robin schedules AS LONG AS THE TWO TEAMS YOU ARE COMPARING HAVE PLAYED EXACTLY THE SAME OPPONENTS. Which won't be true until after Week 15. After Week 10, the Falcons and I only had something like 5 common opponents. So after Week 10 (or whenever it was), it mattered that the PAIN had a harder schedule to that point.

After Week 15, strength of schedule can still matter to some degree - but determining it would be more complicated than it's worth. In a real game, it would be easier because playing the Cardinals in Week 2 may not be all that different than playing the Cardinals in Week 12 (injuries notwithstanding). In this game, playing them at those different times might be very different because of player turnover, the way that the Cardinals chose to build their players between Week 2 and Week 12, etc.

The differences are real, but far too burdensome to calculate for our purposes. You have to remember that this is a game, and not real life - so real life systems may not apply the way that you think they do (and in this case they don't).

Also, knowing The Meal as I do, I really wouldn't recommend getting into a statistical debate with him.


Find me one place ANYWHERE that says round robin teams should be ranked by anything other than win percentage. I'll wait.

IMO, the Dirty Brew Crew is the most improved team in the league. I dont know how far they should jump in the power rankings but they have loaded up about 4 games ago.

Originally posted by krwynn
Find me one place ANYWHERE that says round robin teams should be ranked by anything other than win percentage. I'll wait.


I already explained why it matters prior to the completion of the schedule, particularly when you only have half of your opponents in common - and moreso in a game like this when it matters just as much WHEN you play a team, as who you are playing.

When someone performs a statistical analysis on a GLB league, I'll link you to it. In the meantime, you're using sites that are talking about apples, and trying to apply it to oranges.

Originally posted by RunningMn9
Originally posted by krwynn

Find me one place ANYWHERE that says round robin teams should be ranked by anything other than win percentage. I'll wait.


I already explained why it matters prior to the completion of the schedule, particularly when you only have half of your opponents in common - and moreso in a game like this when it matters just as much WHEN you play a team, as who you are playing.

When someone performs a statistical analysis on a GLB league, I'll link you to it. In the meantime, you're using sites that are talking about apples, and trying to apply it to oranges.



You will find that nothing matters other than winning percentage. Anything else is complete overkill. Besides you will find NO experts to back up what you're suggesting. Happy hunting.

Originally posted by krwynn
You will find that nothing matters other than winning percentage. Anything else is complete overkill. Besides you will find NO experts to back up what you're suggesting. Happy hunting.

Is there a large battery of statistical experts contemplating statistical team strength models for Goal Line Blitz?

You won't find any experts to back up what you're suggesting either, once one notes the appropriate context (this specific game, rather than the real world of competitive sports).

There is too much change in this game to presume that playing a team in Week 1 is the same as playing them in Week 15.

Beyond that, if you take a second to read what I am writing, rather than just regurgitating what you believe to be true - at a point in the Round Robin format where you have few common opponents, the strength of the uncommon opponents matters when determining the strength of your own record. If my team is 10-0 and the five opponents that I played that the Falcons haven't played have won 36 games, and the five opponents that they played that I haven't only won 21 games - it matters when assessing the quality of my 10-0 versus their 10-0. That is OBVIOUS.

After 15 games, our opponents are identical, and thus we have a near identical strength of schedule (not really, but close enough, since we only have 14 common opponents).

Originally posted by krwynn
You said "strenghth of schedule". There is no such thing with round robin schedules. Period.Sure there is, when you're part way through the season. After the first game of the season, each team's got a different strength-of-schedule (whether or not they were on their periods).

Originally posted by krwynn
Find me one place ANYWHERE that says round robin teams should be ranked by anything other than win percentage. I'll wait.I'll refer you to the dictionary, and a word called "alphabetical". For that ranking purpose, teams shall be listed based on the proximity of the letters in their name to the beginning of the alphabet. For things like Power Rankings, you may want to use a different system.

Originally posted by krwynn
You will find that nothing matters other than winning percentage. Anything else is complete overkill. Besides you will find NO experts to back up what you're suggesting. Happy hunting.I have found that lots of things matter other than winning percentage. Sleeping, eating, the smile on my daughter's face, taking my wife out to dinner, making sure the lawn gets mowed, not wasting my time arguing with people who can't admit when they're wrong... LOTS of things matter more than winning percentage.

Specific to determining Power Rankings for a partially-completed round-robin computer-generated fake football game, however, feel free to designate your own cherry-picked list of experts, and I'll happily poll them in regards to how the list should be generated.

still waiting......

Further proof. When teams play the same teams all SOS calculations are exactly equal and have no bearing.

If two teams, say A and B, play the identical set of opponents, then they must necessarily be accorded identical SOS ratings.

This is exactly why when playing in round robin systems the strength of a team is measured in win percentage. Does't take a rocket scientist to figure that out.

Let's see how this basic principle holds up, first when we include all games of our opponents and then when we remove the games in which our opponents played us.

First, operate under the assumption that every game should be counted. Suppose that teams A and B were to play the identical slate of 15 opponents. Suppose the cumulative record of these opponents was 60-40. Now, if the SOS rating were calculated as it should be, then both teams A and B would have the same .600 mark for their opponents' winning percentage. And these opponents, being the same for A and B, would then have the identical list of opponents' opponents, resulting in the same decimal calculation of the "2nd generation" for both A and B.

Originally posted by The Meal
Originally posted by krwynn

You said "strenghth of schedule". There is no such thing with round robin schedules. Period.

Originally posted by krwynn

Find me one place ANYWHERE that says round robin teams should be ranked by anything other than win percentage. I'll wait.I'll refer you to the dictionary, and a word called "alphabetical". For that ranking purpose, teams shall be listed based on the proximity of the letters in their name to the beginning of the alphabet. For things like Power Rankings, you may want to use a different system.


Thats not a ranking. That is an alphabetical listing. Now I see what I'm dealing with. Never mind, it's all over your head.

Originally posted by krwynn
Originally posted by The Meal

Originally posted by krwynn


You said "strenghth of schedule". There is no such thing with round robin schedules. Period.

Originally posted by krwynn


Find me one place ANYWHERE that says round robin teams should be ranked by anything other than win percentage. I'll wait.I'll refer you to the dictionary, and a word called "alphabetical". For that ranking purpose, teams shall be listed based on the proximity of the letters in their name to the beginning of the alphabet. For things like Power Rankings, you may want to use a different system.


Thats not a ranking. That is an alphabetical listing. Now I see what I'm dealing with. Never mind, it's all over your head.



krwynn is right you can't do rankings by strength of schedule since everyone plays each other minus the one game from the other conference, If there were more outer conference games then a strength of schedule could be done.
You can do a strength of schedule for about 3/4 of a season on GLB, but by the end everything will have evened out.

My team is one of the better examples, Look at most of the hard teams the ManBearPigs played at the start, we were doing horrible since all the good teams were in our first half of the schedule. We are now on a great win streak being that it has finally evened out and we got to play the weaker teams.

Originally posted by krwynn
If two teams, say A and B, play the identical set of opponents, then they must necessarily be accorded identical SOS ratings.

You really are a goober.

Here were your opponents through Week 10:
Rocky Mountain Snipers
Ditka's Army
Mojave Desert Lions
Compton Cougars
South Park ManBearPigs
Memphis Blues
Dallas Texans
Mile High Mustangs
Austin Orangebloods
Cochabamba Pirates

Here were my opponents through Week 10:
D.C. Corruption
Tricity Cardinals
Dirty South Brew Crew
Shelby Bearcats
Road House Bandito Longhorns
North Shore Sharks
Philly Cheese Steaks
Colony 195 Defenders
Chicago Hitmen
Slaycity Slayers


Here were the Falcon opponents through Week 10:
Philadelphia Nightmare
Queen City Carp
Colony 195 Defenders
Dayton Goatse
Detroit Proletariat
D.C. Corruption
Tricity Cardinals
Dirty South Brew Crew
Shelby Bearcats
Road House Bandito Longhorns

Explain to me again how in a Round Robin format, strength of schedule doesn't matter because you have the same opponents. Explain to me again, how after Week 10, it didn't matter that the Falcon's 10 wins came against a different set of opponents than our 10 wins.

TODAY, after Week 15, our opponent's win % is identical. It wasn't after Week 10 (and neither of ours was comparable to yours - since all 10 of our opponents were different from yours).

It makes sense to have it as part of the calculation because when it's important (before Week 13 or so), it's there. When it becomes far less important (after Week 13 or so), it washes out of the equation on it's own with no effort on my part.