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Forum > Oceania AA Leagues > Oceania AA #2 > Zeta Playoff Picture: Pre-Week 12
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dead_poet
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Appreciate the time it takes to do this. Great writeup.
 
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Awesome~! Thanks for the write-up, fantastic work!
 
jamez009
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Originally posted by cdcollins
Good morning, everyone! The playoffs are just around the corner, and now is the time where teams start preparing for, and dreaming about, their own playoff glory. I'm very pleased to bring back "Chase's Playoff Predictions for Season 2! We have some very familiar faces hovering around the top of the rankings this week, as there's an incredible 4-way tie for first that's going to start coming undone this week, with the "Game of the Week" between Bikini Atoll and Tonga. The middle of the conference is pretty well defined, but there is a dogfight, much akin to last season, for the final playoff spots. Things will definitely get even more interesting as we hit the home stretch. Without further ado, here's the playoff picture!

Games left: 5
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth

Standings:
1: Christchurch Knightmares, 10-1
2-X: Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds, 10-1
3-X: Dunedin Wolverines, 10-1
4-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 10-1
5. The Four Horsemen, 8-3
6. El Fuego, 7-4
7. Uluru Rockies, 6-5
8. Chinese Bandits, 5-6
9. Coney Island Warriors, 5-6
10. Cimmerian Barberians, 5-6
11. Mauna Kea Chenabogs, 4-7
12. Redscape Diplomats, 4-7

Team scenarios:

1. Christchurch Knightmares: 1st, 10-1
What an oddity this is, the 1st-seeded team in Zeta currently hasn't clinched a playoff spot, while the three teams with identical records under them have. This is simply due to the fact that Christchurch hasn't played 2 of the 3 teams vying most heavily for 8th, and thus, haven't mathematically clinched yet. However, it's just a matter of time until the Knightmares do so. Christchurch is coming off a 35-point smacking of Redscape, and are rewarded with a manageable sprint until the end. They play at home against Chinese this week, a game that favors the Knightmares. Next, they go to El Fuego for a game that also leans toward Christchurch. The following game is at home against Tasmania, a near-certain win; the game after is at Coney Island, which favors the Knightmares. They get a strong draw against Alice Springs, but I think Christchurch has the talent to pull through. What will likely keep the Knightmares out of 1st in the end will be a heartbreaking 6-point loss to Bikini Atoll in Week 5. Still, 2 rounds of homefield advantage are nothing to cry about!
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd

2. Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds: 2nd, 10-1
If any team has been on fire in Zeta, it's been the Mushroom Clouds; they proved this by tattooing the Barbarians this past week, 59-17. Now, the Shrooms get a HUGE test in this week's "Game of the Week" against Tonga, a team that's looking for revenge after two heartbreaks last season; this matchup leans toward Bikini Atoll, but it should be a four-quarter fight. The schedule REALLY slackens up after this, as Bikini Atoll travels to FPQA, a game that's almost a near-lock. There's a near-lock the following week as well as the Shrooms play Asau at home. Next, Bikini Atoll travels to Mauna Kea for a game that strongly favors the Shrooms. The final week brings an interesting game against the underrated Teeth Smashers; one would think this matchup would favor Bikini Atoll, but it'll be closer than the pundits will predict. By virtue of their victory over Christchurch, the Shrooms should lock up the #1-seed in Zeta when all the smoke clears
Predicted finish: 15-1, 1st

3. Dunedin Wolverines: 3rd, 10-1
Dunedin rolled to its fifth straight game of 30+ points, putting Coney Island down 33-7. I expect this week's matchup against Cimmerian to be more of the same, as I anticipate a Dunedin win. The week after, though, they travel to Tonga in a game that promises to be game-of-the-week material; based purely on matchups, this game ever-so-slightly favors Tonga, but a Dunedin "upset" wouldn't be out of the cards. They are rewarded in the next two weeks by games against FPQA and at Asau, which both are near-locks. The Alpha draw for the Wolverines is VERY interesting, as they go to Sydney to fave the Sea Dragons; this game does favor Sydney, but great gameplanning by Dunedin may avoid this. Beat Tonga, though, and a loss here is inconsequential to the rankings. Beat both, and we have a VERY interesting tie at the top. Just don't see it, though.
Predicted finish: 13-3, 4th

4. Tonga Thunderbirds: 10-1, 4th
The Thunderbirds just ripped of their 9th win in a row, pasting poor Asau 111-7. In this week's "Game of the Week", Tonga takes its potent rushing attack to Bikini Atoll; of course (as much as it pains me to say it) the Shrooms should be favored here, but a solid game by Tonga could shake up these predictions even more. The following week, Tonga has another nailbiter against Dunedin; this matchup slightly favors Tonga, but Dunedin is much better than many teams give them credit for, so this one comes down to execution. Tonga faces yet ANOTHER stiff test at The Horsemen the following week; Tonga should be favored here strictly by matchups, but never underestimate the work the Horsemen can do. The road after is a bit easier, as the Thunderbirds have Uluru at home, a game which favors Tonga. The Alpha Draw is Gainesville, which should be a near-lock for Tonga. So much is up in the air right now, but in the very least, Tonga controlls a lot of playoff destinies right now, so it should be interesting to watch.
Predicted finish: 14-2, 3rd

5. The Four Horsemen: 8-3, 5th
The Horsemen come in riding high on a 4-game streak after this week's 35-13 victory at Tasmania. Coney Island comes calling next week in a game which favors the Horsemen. The week after, the Horsemen travel to Cimmeria to play in a game that should likewise be a Horsemen win. The next week, the Horsemen have a strong test against the Thunderbirds at home; the matchup does swing Tonga's way, but if Tonga comes into this game on a slide, things could be mighty interesting here. The Horsemen close out their Zeta slate against FPQA, a near-lock. The Alpha game against South Austrailian should favor The Horsemen, but I personally feel that this game will be closer than most predict. A 4-1 finish is solid, but it won't be enough for a home playoff game; however, they still won from the #5-seed last year, so...
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th

6. El Fuego: 7-4, 6th
Fuego ended a very nasty 3-game skid (and a tumble down the rankings) with a solid 27-6 win over Uluru. Next week's game at Dirty South should be very little problem, as Fuego's a near lock to win. The next week against Christchurch is interesting; an upset win would be HUGE in the playoff picture, but regardless, I still see a Knightmare for Fuego. The following week, Fuego goes to Redscape to play a game where they are favored by a bit. Next, Fuego closes it's Zeta schedule against Chinese; on paper, Fuego is favored, but can the Chinese OC whip up a nasty pill for Chinese to swallow? The Alpha draw has them at home against Manilla, which is a draw Fuego should win handily. Likewise, I see a 4-1 run to close out the schedule here, but Fuego'd be wise to bring the heat every game!
Predicted finish: 11-5, 6th

7. Uluru Rockies: 7th, 6-5
Here's the first relatively new face, and here's where the predictions get very interesting! The Rockies had a rough game last week, falling 27-6 to a strong Fuego team. This week looks to be much lighter, as the Rockies have Tasmania at home in a game they will be likely to win. However, the next week, they have a game at Coney Island; this game is as close a virtual toss-up as we have in this playoff picture, but I'm inclined to give it to Coney Island based on blocking and rush defense advantages. The week after, the rockies have another close (and HUGE) game against Cimmerian, but I believe this one will go to the Rockies due to some advantages there (and it must, if the Rockies want to have a .500 record or better). The Zeta finale is at Tonga, where I don't see a win in the Rockies' future. The Alpha draw was awful to Uluru, as they face a primed Molokai team who should be heavily favored. The Week 13 and 14 games are huge. 0-2 might not be enough to get them to the playoffs whereas 1-1 should, but we'll see!
Predicted finish: 8-8, 7th

8. Chinese Bandits: 8th, 5-6
Here's the first of three teams at 5-6, and I believe their roster has the most talent of any of those 3 teams. The Bandits are coming off a 54-0 shutout pasting of Dirty South. They have a game at Christchurch up next, which should really favor Christchurch; with the talent here, though, an upset wouldn't be totally shocking. The following game is against Redscape, where the Bandits have a fairly decided advantage. Next, Chinese rolls into Mauna Kea to face off against Mauna Kea, where they again should be favored. The next week features a game at Fuego, where the Chinese should not be favored; however, if Chinese can put something together, this one might have upset potential. Much as Uluru above, the Alpha draw is rotten, as they go to a highly talented Easter Island team, who should be favored in this one. The 6-point win over Coney Island in Week 2 helps, and a win against Cimmerian MAY make the playoffs (with some help from Uluru), even at 7-9. But a dangerous 7-9 team they'd be.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 9th

9. Coney Island Warriors: 9th, 5-6
Last season's "Cardiac Kids" now find themselves on the outside-looking-in after the Week 2 loss at the Chinese. Not helping matters, Coney Island dropped its second straight to Dunedin this week, 33-7. Even worse, the remaining schedule is tough, but manageable. They go to the Horsemen next, where the Horsemen should have the decided advantage. Then, the Warriors go to Uluru; again, this game is a toss-up, but I believe the Warriors squeak one out by the enamel on their teeth to keep their playoff hopes afloat. Next, the Warriors go to Dirty South for a game that should be a lock for Coney Island. After that, the Warriors end their Zeta regular season against Christchurch, which looks bleak for Coney Island. However, the Alpha draw was VERY kind to the Warriors, as they face 1-10 Somoa in a game that's a near-lock for Coney Island. I cannot understate the importance of the Coney Island-Uluru game for many teams' playoff hopes. Lose, and Coney Island's out. Win, and they're most likely in.
Predicted finish: 8-8, 8th

10. Cimmerian Barbarians: 10th, 5-6
You wouldn't be able to tell it by the rankings, but they're not in terrible position, due to a Week 3 win over the Chinese. However, they were slammed in their last game against Bikini Atoll, 59-17. Their next game is at Dunedin, where I just cannot foresee a Cimmerian win. Cimmerian then plays host to The Horsemen in a game that should likewise favor the visitors. The next game, though, is HUGE for the Barbarians' season as they travel to Uluru to play a team that should be favored to win; an upset here could put the Barbarians looking at 8-8, where a loss would have them all but out of the playoffs. The next week, Cimmerian closes out their Zeta slate against Dirty South, a game that's a near-lock for the Barbarians. In the finale, Cimmerian plays host to 0-11 Origrammar, which is also a near-lock for the Barbarians. The difference between 8-8 (8th, behind Coney Island due to the head-to-head loss) and 7-9 (10th, thanks to the Chinese Week 2 loss) has never been so huge.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 10th

11. Mauna Kea Chenabogs: 11th, 4-7
Since the Chenabogs are just technically one game behind the final playoff spot, I felt obliged to include them there this week, though they'd need to go perfect in the final 5 to fully assure themselves a playoff birth. Their last game was a solid 44-7 home beating of FPQA. Next week, the Chenabogs travel to Redscape in a close battle of 4-7 teams in which I feel the Chenabogs have the edge; the winner will keep their scant playoff hopes alive, while the loser is all but eliminated from playoff contention. The next week, Mauna Kea has Asau at home, and this is one the Chenabogs should really win. The game after that is at Chinese, where I think the Bandits really have the upper hand; however, possibly riding 3 straight at this time, could an upset (and major playoff disruption) be too farfetched? The Zeta finale is against a locked-and-loaded Bikini Atoll team at home, and I don't see any possibility of an upset against the Shrooms. The Alpha draw is very favorable, as Mauna Kea travels to 3-10 Vanuatu in a game the Chenabogs should be highly favored in. The 4-point loss to Cimmerian earlier this season is heartbreaking, but still, would a 4-1 finish and 8-8 record be enough to make the playoffs? Their upset of projected #8-seed Coney Island gives this a SCANT chance, but a chance indeed. Wouldn't this be a shocker!
Predicted finish: 7-9, 11th

12. Redscape Diplomats: 12th, 4-7
Much akin to Mauna Kea, it would take a perfect record at this point to get the Diplomats to the playoffs, and I just don't see that happening. In their last game, the Diplomats were hammered by Christchurch 38-3. This week, Redscape takes on Mauna Kea in the "4-7 Bowl"; I predict Mauna Kea here, but it wouldn't be earth-shattering to see a Redscape upset. Next, Redscape goes to the Chinese, where I likewise don't foresee a win in the Diplomats' future. The following week, the Diplomats are home against Fuego, where again, I see another loss down the stretch. The Diplomats go to Tasmania in the Zeta finale, where I think they'll buck the string of losses and put up a decent win. They might as well just get a hotel room, because they're facing another team from Tasmania in the Alpha finale; however, I don't project them to win that one, due to a talent difference. 1-4 seems likely to me, and that's just not playoff material.
Predicted finish: 5-11, 12th
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I thank everyone who enjoyed these last season, as they were great inspiration for me to bring them back again this season. I hope you enjoyed them as much as I enjoy writing (and learning about) everyone's teams. As always, I have no bones against any team; I just call the games as I see them. Best of luck to everyone in Week 12, and keep moving forward!


awesome job, my Warriors need to get back that mojo we had last season!

btw, GO HOOS! I'm flying up this week and will be in Scott screaming my drunk ass off on Saturday!


~j
 
SWVAHoo
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Originally posted by jamez009
awesome job, my Warriors need to get back that mojo we had last season!

btw, GO HOOS! I'm flying up this week and will be in Scott screaming my drunk ass off on Saturday!


~j


Sweet, I'm heading down to C'Ville Saturday for the big game, too! Making a 3-hour trip one-way just to see it, since I came into some tickets just last night. And I really think it's going to be closer than a LOT of people predict. That, or I'm out of $100! GO HOOS!

And I thank you all so much for your nice comments about the playoff predictions; I'm glad I can be doing something that makes the conference a bit more fun. If I have enough time tonight after law school readings, I'll churn out a fresh batch of Zeta predictions (and if I'm feeling especially spiffy, Alpha, but it'll be a bit of work)!
 
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Bah, UVA. I'm a Maryland fan.
 
TEUFELHOUNDEN
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GO NOLES!
 
Nirav
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I second the GO NOLES! Obviously
 
SWVAHoo
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Originally posted by Brian the Stunt Bum
Bah, UVA. I'm a Maryland fan.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04B9ndvQKCM
Note the ridiculous pro-Terrapin broadcasting, even though the NCAA rulebook states that the ball is spotted where the ball is when the body first touches out of bounds.

Originally posted by TEUFELHOUNDEN
GO NOLES!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isiAyJwdprE
And yes, it's the correct call, as the replay proved.

WAHOO-WA!
 
Scapino
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Wow 13 years to find a good replay.

GO NOLES!!
 
Willam
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To hell with all of the ACC (except Wake Forest)


GO ECU!!! It's a GREAT day to be a Pirate!!!
 
SWVAHoo
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Originally posted by Scapino
Wow 13 years to find a good replay.

GO NOLES!!


Here's one a bit more recent. Also was the last time FSU was ranked in the Top 5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1ExnRxjczM

And I was there .

Originally posted by Willam
To hell with all of the ACC (except Wake Forest)


GO ECU!!! It's a GREAT day to be a Pirate!!!


Haha, you laugh, but the ECU game scares us Virginia fans. I swear, you all would 2nd second in the ACC Coastal this year. No joke.

 
Willam
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Originally posted by cdcollins
Originally posted by Scapino

Wow 13 years to find a good replay.

GO NOLES!!


Here's one a bit more recent. Also was the last time FSU was ranked in the Top 5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1ExnRxjczM

And I was there .

Originally posted by Willam

To hell with all of the ACC (except Wake Forest)


GO ECU!!! It's a GREAT day to be a Pirate!!!


Haha, you laugh, but the ECU game scares us Virginia fans. I swear, you all would 2nd second in the ACC Coastal this year. No joke.



Unfortunately, it's all about money. With 4 teams already in the state, the ACC wouldn't gain ANY tv revenue by letting ECU in so it will never happen. That's ok, though, C-USA has come along way and I'm happy to be in it.
 
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