Warrior General Games

It's not 50/50 at that point, because it was 2/3 that you'd pick wrong out the gate.

So there is a 2/3 chance you picked wrong, meaning it's a statistically higher win rate to switch. By switching, you align yourself to the 2/3 chance instead of the 1/3rd chance.



That's the difference between odds being tied to the past or not, in most cases they are not. But since the choices are inherently linked in my scenario - it does matter.



If box 1 was the winner, and you look at the 3 options:


Contestant chooses 1, contestant chooses 2, contestant chooses 3.

Then:

Host eliminates door 2(or3), host eliminates door 3, host eliminates door 2.



Now the split occurs, and we see the results:

Switch-
Contestant switches to remaining door and loses, contestant switches to door 1 and wins, contestant switches to door 1 and wins

stay-
contestant remains with door 1 and wins, contestant remains with door 2 and loses, contestant remains with door 3 and loses





So the 50/50 doesn't apply anymore, it's 1/3 or 2/3.

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