Warrior General Games

hah! glwarriors is gameplanning hard for Air Raid this time after his forum meltdown from our first matchup with Warsaw. Even did a not-so-subtle scrimmage against Compton this morning to take a stab at my offense.

I've made some fairly sizeable changes to the Air Raid O for this one. Not that I expect them to do anything good or useful, but something needs to be shook up. We're just not efficient enough this season. Looking forward to seeing how we handle what will undoubtedly be a double-down on his preference to blitz hard.

I'll probably end up getting us shutout

Ran over the Hookers

Is it just me? From a Pro perspective it seems like the Journeyman teams aren't haven't nearly the success that they were at the start of the season.

Originally posted by Rom_Fox
I wonder if the game against the pro ranks are inhibiting change in the journeyman rankings. Games that are lost against pro teams don't hurt as much so the upper ranked teams don't fall terribly far and since the teams at 8 and below tend to get matched with similar or lower ranked Journeyman teams they don't get big boosts for winning.

Well, what it means is that teams are playing against teams closer to their own ratings, which is what the original system intended. But by only playing other teams in the same tier you'd see some bigger gaps in the matchups at the top of the ladder - the Bulls would have to play down every game, and now they can play someone rated similar to them (or in this case, much much higher).

The lack of change in rankings is more a function of the stability of the elo ratings in general once you get a sufficient baseline of games. Look at the top 10 overall, there hasn't been nearly as much change this season as the last few (the shakeup of the top 5-6 these last few days not withstanding). It took the Bogans about 8 games to move from 11th to 10th.

Originally posted by NiborRis
Ran over the Hookers

Is it just me? From a Pro perspective it seems like the Journeyman teams aren't haven't nearly the success that they were at the start of the season.

Lot of pros got a huge SA advantage midway through the season that is contributing to that.

ugh, tell me about it... my only Journeyman loss this season was to Hawaii. I can't seem to ever get a chance to move up the rankings...

no offense to Vase or Glasgow, but until I lose to one of them... I'd like to think I'm #3

btw, why is the boss now coaching Glasgow as well as Hawaii?

Originally posted by NiborRis
Well, what it means is that teams are playing against teams closer to their own ratings, which is what the original system intended. But by only playing other teams in the same tier you'd see some bigger gaps in the matchups at the top of the ladder - the Bulls would have to play down every game, and now they can play someone rated similar to them (or in this case, much much higher).

The lack of change in rankings is more a function of the stability of the elo ratings in general once you get a sufficient baseline of games. Look at the top 10 overall, there hasn't been nearly as much change this season as the last few (the shakeup of the top 5-6 these last few days not withstanding). It took the Bogans about 8 games to move from 11th to 10th.

I don't think that the first statement is true - we've been playing pro only teams within +- 20 of us - that's a big swing. The teams in our own ladder don't have a chance to beat us head to head and if we lose to lower ranked pro teams it doesn't seem to hurt us as badly in terms of rankings.

it's clear that for the top ladder it's not trivial to move up or down, one would assume because there are power scores that are hidden behind the overall ranking which provides greater separation that just 1 vs. 5 or whatever. However, if you are ranked 11 in Journeyman why should it take a year to move to 9 if you win out? I'm not sure that is a terribly far-fetched situation.

Feel free to respond with opinion stated as fact.

Originally posted by TDiddy8701

no offense to Vase or Glasgow, but until I lose to one of them... I'd like to think I'm #3



don't sell yourself short! we like to think of you as #2!

Originally posted by Rom_Fox
I don't think that the first statement is true - we've been playing pro only teams within +- 20 of us - that's a big swing. The teams in our own ladder don't have a chance to beat us head to head and if we lose to lower ranked pro teams it doesn't seem to hurt us as badly in terms of rankings.

it's clear that for the top ladder it's not trivial to move up or down, one would assume because there are power scores that are hidden behind the overall ranking which provides greater separation that just 1 vs. 5 or whatever. However, if you are ranked 11 in Journeyman why should it take a year to move to 9 if you win out? I'm not sure that is a terribly far-fetched situation.

Feel free to respond with opinion stated as fact.

We can't see the underlying elo score. It may very well be that those 2 spots you'd like to jump from 11 to 9 are across a massive chasm of score value.

Originally posted by Rom_Fox
I don't think that the first statement is true - we've been playing pro only teams within +- 20 of us - that's a big swing. The teams in our own ladder don't have a chance to beat us head to head and if we lose to lower ranked pro teams it doesn't seem to hurt us as badly in terms of rankings.

it's clear that for the top ladder it's not trivial to move up or down, one would assume because there are power scores that are hidden behind the overall ranking which provides greater separation that just 1 vs. 5 or whatever. However, if you are ranked 11 in Journeyman why should it take a year to move to 9 if you win out? I'm not sure that is a terribly far-fetched situation.

Feel free to respond with opinion stated as fact.

You don't have to assume anything about hidden power scores, it's a stated fact from GLB that they use elo ratings. Those ratings are hidden because reasons and so all we see is the rankings.
It's well documented how elo ratings change with the games you play - it's based on your rating and the rating of the team you play and the result of the game. The top of the ladder has REALLY high elo ratings compared to the rest - at least that's our guess since it's hidden - so one game isn't enough to make anyone surpass anyone else. It took a bad half season for SF to drop out of the top 5.

Your change in ranking isn't jsut about you - it's about every other team. You can't say "I won out, I should have gone up" without also saying what happened to #10 and #9. That's part of why the Bogans took a long damn time to catch #10 from #11 - because Seattle was winning a bunch of games too.

Originally posted by TDiddy8701
ugh, tell me about it... my only Journeyman loss this season was to Hawaii. I can't seem to ever get a chance to move up the rankings...

no offense to Vase or Glasgow, but until I lose to one of them... I'd like to think I'm #3

btw, why is the boss now coaching Glasgow as well as Hawaii?

I get what you are saying but it's not like we haven't beaten your team, I know your excuse is that you weren't paying attention at the end of last season but that isn't my problem: http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/game/75228

From my perspective our game this season was a bit of a fluke, we almost double you guys up on yardage and still lost.

Also, Boss is just running some scrims between us and Hawaii, he isn't actually our new coach.

i like reading these. I always look forward to it, just dont post in the thread a lot, my team likes to fall just below the write ups always lol. good work though.

Originally posted by Galithor
We can't see the underlying elo score. It may very well be that those 2 spots you'd like to jump from 11 to 9 are across a massive chasm of score value.

granted - it is also likely the the higher aged teams have higher elo scores isn't it? (maybe not, I don't know) thus losing to a lower ranked pro team would do less to impact a journeyman team's ranking than losing to a similarly ranked but lower elo journeyman team.

the rankings seem a lot less fluid this year, but I have no data to really base than on (hence 'seem')

or maybe all the rank 8-15 teams are losing or are just not close to being as good to Lost Lounge as they seem from the rankings.

From the standpoint of keeping interest up I'm not sure that having limited fluidity is a desirable outcome

Originally posted by Rom_Fox


From the standpoint of keeping interest up I'm not sure that having limited fluidity is a desirable outcome

^This. And the fact that T Diddy can keep talking trash against Yorick. Not that we'd win...

ever thought that maybe I just like to "stir the pot"?

HBurg beats Nashville (Pro) 14-0... woo! First time they've been shut out all season. Gave up alot of yardage, but pass rush was in full effect today... 28 hurries, 9 sacks, 3 FFs/FRs

lost lounge up 2 spots for 1 win this is kinda thing im talking about. The system seems unbalanced as im pretty sure the quality of our opponents has been better rank wise