Warrior General Games

Originally posted by Thunderoo
I've made the assumption that you won't get matched up against teams you're a coach (GM, OC, DC etc) of. Could explain some of the ridiculous repeated match ups at the top of the ladder.

Woops was drunk and tired; meant to say you don't play teams from your league which as the number of leagues is reducing will cause problems as well. Don't understand why it has to be some greedy algorithm that runs from 1st down to create matchups... Better off actually using something smart which tries to avoid repeats of matchups

ITT: A lot of people who have no understanding of streaks in random results.
I've seen a roulette wheel at a Las Vegas casino with the last 5 results being the same number (since the results are nicely displayed on an LED panel for you). I promise you they weren't cheating, and that's more possibilities than the GLB ladder. If that helps put it into perspective, and I'm sure it doesn't, but it should.
Basically you have a lot of observer bias and no clue on how likely streaks are in random results going on up in here.

A lack of strings of repeats is one of the easiest ways to spot a non-random sequence. You really think that if Bort/Corndog was manually picking them (and lol you think they have time to assign ladder matchups every 3 days) they'd assign so many repeats?

Originally posted by NiborRis
ITT: A lot of people who have no understanding of streaks in random results.
I've seen a roulette wheel at a Las Vegas casino with the last 5 results being the same number (since the results are nicely displayed on an LED panel for you). I promise you they weren't cheating, and that's more possibilities than the GLB ladder. If that helps put it into perspective, and I'm sure it doesn't, but it should.
Basically you have a lot of observer bias and no clue on how likely streaks are in random results going on up in here.

A lack of strings of repeats is one of the easiest ways to spot a non-random sequence. You really think that if Bort/Corndog was manually picking them (and lol you think they have time to assign ladder matchups every 3 days) they'd assign so many repeats?

I understand this but imo ladder match ups should not be independently random and should be influenced by the previous 4 or 5 match ups. I would much rather see the teams at the top play a range of games against each other rather than the same match ups over and over again.

Randomness also exacerbates the fact that for each team there is quite a limited pool of potential matchups. Ideally ladder match ups should be trying to maximise difference in schedule whilst minimising the matchup rank delta in each game.

Originally posted by NiborRis
You really think that if Bort/Corndog was manually picking them (and lol you think they have time to assign ladder matchups every 3 days) they'd assign so many repeats?

Well yeah ldo.

No shit it's random. It'd be nice if we didn't have this phenomenon happen three times to us in as many a seasons.

Let's put this into perspective:

SF's Ladder Schedule & Results for 3 Seasons:

Season 1:

Jan 26 20:00 @Maine Snails L 3-14
Jan 23 17:00 Portland Ronin W 27-7
Jan 20 14:00 @Doinitin Djibouti L 0-10
Jan 17 17:00 Hawaii Bulls W 20-10
Jan 14 21:00 Queen City Brewmasters L 14-17
Jan 11 7:00 Zorin World Order W 37-0
Jan 8 21:00 Carolina Pirates W 42-27
Jan 5 19:00 @Seattle Seahawks W 21-14
Jan 2 20:00 @Maine Snails L 7-10
Dec 30 15:00 ENMU GreyHounds W 20-0
Dec 27 9:00 A Good Day To Die W 7-3
Dec 24 21:00 Sons of Anarchy W 52-0
Dec 21 4:00 @Bloodless Brotherhood W 21-0
Dec 18 13:00 Hartford Rattlers W 24-10
Dec 15 20:00 @Fuzzy Merkins W 27-0
Dec 12 21:00 Wichita Stealth W 24-7

Obviously way more variation because of the fact that teams were flying up and down in the early ELO creation.

Season 2:

Mar 19 17:00 TT's Wolfpack of One L 21-24
Mar 16 17:00 Las Vegas Outlaws W 49-14
Mar 13 14:00 @Doinitin Djibouti W 21-14
Mar 10 17:00 Seattle Seahawks W 24-13
Mar 7 12:00 New Jersey Generals W 20-10
Mar 4 14:00 Queen City Brewmasters L 21-59
Mar 1 17:00 Jebediahs Oblong Ball Club W 31-14
Feb 26 17:00 @Queen City Brewmasters W 41-34
Feb 23 21:00 Somalia Pirates W 44-7
Feb 20 12:00 @Alpine L 7-34
Feb 17 17:00 @Portland Ronin W 34-31
Feb 14 12:00 Legacy L 0-9
Feb 11 17:00 @OG GLB W 38-7
Feb 8 18:00 @Doinitin Djibouti L 10-16
Feb 5 18:00 @Doinitin Djibouti L 9-21
Feb 2 18:00 @Doinitin Djibouti W 45-31

DD 3 times in a row (4x OVERALL). QCBC twice (in 3 games).

Apr 19 14:00 OG GLB TBD
Apr 16 17:00 OG GLB W 27-0
Apr 13 14:00 OG GLB L 38-45
Apr 10 12:00 Monmouth EVIL MONKEYS W 24-17
Apr 7 18:00 @Doinitin Djibouti L 0-58
Apr 4 14:00 @Queen City Brewmasters L 20-37
Apr 1 12:00 TT's Wolfpack of One W 44-37
Mar 29 14:00 TT's Wolfpack of One W 28-18
Mar 26 12:00 TT's Wolfpack of One W 34-21

TT's team in 3 games in a row (4 if you count the previous season).

OG now 3 times in a row. Oh and we also got our obligatory QCBC and DD games too (obv a function of being top 10).

I know this is all confirmation bias... but it's just nuts how this is happening.

Originally posted by Galithor
In your case, it was 50/50 to be you or LL playing Salty.

so basically... if we beat salty, swap #1 and #2, good chance we play again in the next ladder game, in our 4th head to head ladder game

sigh



there's got to be a point ladder logic favors playing seasoned teams over playing a similar ranked soph team like 4 or 5 times

Lets talk about random

http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/team/357


Apr 16 17:00.....All Rapacious Wolverines.....W 17-10
Apr 13 12:00.....@All Rapacious Wolverines.....W 10-7
Apr 10 19:00.....@Denver Broncos.....L 7-14
Apr 7 10:00.....Tacoma Tugs.....L 10-24
Apr 4 10:00.....All Rapacious Wolverines.....W 23-21
Apr 1 19:00.....@All Rapacious Wolverines.....W 21-13
Mar 29 7:00.....LSU Tigers.....W 20-17
Mar 26 19:00.....@All Rapacious Wolverines.....W 10-6

ugh, i figured around 3 or 4, the code would start to prefer other teams... apparently it doesn't matter at all how often you play someone

Originally posted by TDiddy8701
so basically... if we beat salty, swap #1 and #2, good chance we play again in the next ladder game, in our 4th head to head ladder game

sigh



there's got to be a point ladder logic favors playing seasoned teams over playing a similar ranked soph team like 4 or 5 times

It chooses a team ranked within 10 ranks of you, and has exclusive weighting for teams in your tier. So if Salty is the only team within ten ranks that's a sophomore team, you'll play them 100% of the time.

The logic never favors tiers other than your own. The only time you should play a seasoned team in your situation is if there are no sophomore teams within 10 ranks of you, or the sophomore teams that are within 10 ranks have already been matched up with someone else. That's how it's designed to work currently according to my understanding. Perhaps it should change, but that's how it works right now. The sophomore top 5 sees each other alot because there's typically only 1-2 teams within range when it comes time to pick opponent. When the 6-15 ranks are matched up, it's more common for there to be 3-4 options at least.

So, looking at possible sophomore matchups on 4-22-14 in an attempt to futher learning on how matchups are determined for the sophomore top 10:

Salty will play a seasoned team this week. No sophomore within 10 ranks.
Harrisonburg will play either LL or Engage with Zorp!
LL will play a seasoned team if Harrisonburg draws Zorp!
Zorp! is in an interesting spot if they don't get drawn by Harrisonburg. They could get Atlantic City, Louisiana, or Air Raid. Who else here wants to see Yukiko vs Cleveland?
Atlantic City could play anyone down to DD 2.0 if not matched up against Zorp!
Louisiana adds Andes and Falkirk to the potential targets list if not matched up against Zorp! or Atlantic City.
Air Raid doesn't add any teams to the target list. Same list as whatever is left after Louisiana list, assuming not already matched up against those above.
Falkirk, if not already matched up with someone above, adds Hawaii to the target list.
DD 2.0 has the same situation as Falkirk. Hawaii is the lowest ranked potential opponent.
finishing out the top ten, assuming that Andes hasn't been matched up above already, they add Glasgow to the target list. Nobody ranked below Glasgow has the potential of being paired up against a top 10 sophomore team.

thanks for clearing up some of the logic...

i'll most likely be playing LL, as Zorp is a league opponent, which I believe is a factor in deciding ladder games

Originally posted by TDiddy8701
thanks for clearing up some of the logic...

i'll most likely be playing LL, as Zorp is a league opponent, which I believe is a factor in deciding ladder games

Lost Lounge has already played two league opponents in ladder matches (ah, the joys of being in Oberon). I think it matters not at all.

Praise baby Jesus

i know its just rookie, but Baby Banger is playing All Madden for a 2nd time in a row.

Originally posted by drake262
i know its just rookie, but Baby Banger is playing All Madden for a 2nd time in a row.

lol...omg, this game must be so bad if u hve to play them twice in a row