PLAYOFF SCENARIOS FOR WORLD LEAGUE - ALPHA CONFERENCE - AFTER 15 GAMES
1.) Portland Niners (14-1) - CLINCHED #1 SEED
Game 16: #8 South Side Mafia (8-7)
Portland can safely plug in their punter at QB and let him run QB Draw plays all game long if they like... win or lose, Portland has clinched the #1 seed. NEXT!
2.) Asau Golden Eagles (11-4) - CLINCHED TOP-3
Game 16: #3 Cincinnati Shockers (10-5)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts, has yet to play Cincinnati
An ill-timed loss to UFC has suddenly left Asau vulnerable to losing their grip on the #2 seed. A loss to Cincinnati would put both Asau and Cincy at 11-5, with Cincy breaking the tie on head-to-head and taking #2 and Asau dropping down to #3. But they can't drop any further than #3... even if Cincy beats Asau and Hogwarts beats Nairobi to force a 3-way tie at 11-5, Hogwarts has previously lost to both Asau and Cincy and would drop to the bottom in the tie-breaker. So, #3 is the floor for Asau. And of course, beat Cincy and they stay at #2.
3.) Cincinnati Shockers (10-5) - CLINCHED TOP-4
Game 16: #2 Asau Golden Eagles (11-4)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts, Padre, Miami; has yet to play Asau
After a rocky start to the season, Cincinnati has clawed their way back to the top. A win over Asau in the finale means they'll own the tie-breaker over both Asau and Hogwarts and will vault up to the 2-seed. If Cincy loses to Asau, they can still keep the #3 seed if Hogwarts loses to Nairobi. And if Cincy loses and Hogwarts wins, Cincy would drop, but no further than #4... their earlier wins over Hogwarts, Padre and Miami mean they would come out on top of any possible tie-breaking scenario.
4.) Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry (10-5) - CLINCHED TOP-6
Game 16: #12 Nairobi Warthogs (6-9)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Padre; lost to Asau, Cincinnati, Miami; 345 points-allowed
The best possible scenario for Hogwarts is to defeat Nairobi and for Asau to beat Cincy, in which case Hogwarts would vault up to #3. If Hogwarts wins and Cincy beats Asau, that would set up a 3-way tie at 11-5 between Asau, Cincy and Hogwarts, and Hogwarts's earlier losses to both teams means they'd come out on the bottom and stay at #4. But that's the furthest Hogwarts can go if they win, no lower than #4.
So what if Nairobi upsets Hogwarts? Hogwarts could still finish #4 at 10-6, but due to Hogwarts' earlier loss to Miami, Hogwarts would need Miami to get upset by Doofenshmirtz to finish at 9-7 and avoid a tie. (As long as Miami loses, Padre's game wouldn't matter, since Hogwarts would win any ties over Padre.)
If Hogwarts loses and Padre and Miami both win, that would set up either a 3-way or 4-way tie at 10-6, depending on whether or not Cincy wins or loses too. But even if Cincy loses to create a 4-way tie, it basically becomes a 3-way tie anyway... Cincy's head-to-head record is 3-0, while the head-to-head records for Hogwarts, Padre and Miami are all either 1-2 (with Cincy included) or 1-1 (without Cincy included). So, it would come down to the points-allowed tie breaker between Hogwarts (345), Miami (412 / -67), and Padre (414 / -69). Hogwarts would probably end up on top at #4... they're not likely to lose such a sizeable gap in points-allowed in just one game.
If Hogwarts loses, Padre loses, and Miami wins, that would tie Hogwarts and Miami at 10-6 below Cincy and Asau. Miami has already defeated Hogwarts, so Hogwarts would slide to #5.
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There are 8 different games that could change the outcome of the standings from #4 to #11 in a ridiculously large combination of potential variations. There's simply no way to go through all of them, so instead, let me start with the most likely scenario: no upsets in Game 16, the higher-ranked team defeats the lower-ranked team in each game. If that happens, this would be the result:
1.) Portland (15-1)
2.) Asau (12-4)
3.) Hogwarts (11-5)
4.) Cincinnati (10-6)
5.) Padre (10-6)
6.) Miami (10-6)
7.) Venom (9-7)
8.) Dogs (9-7)
9.) South Side (8-8)
10.) Brazilian (7-9)
11.) Orlando (7-9)
Additional analysis below...
5.) Padre's Parrish (9-6) - CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT
Game 16: #11 Orlando Prime Timers (7-8)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Miami, Venom, South Side; lost to Cincy, Hogwarts, Dogs; 414 points-allowed
They've gone about as high as they can go... #5 is the cap for Padre, unless one of the crazy scenarios up above takes place and Padre miraculously closes their 60+ points-allowed gap with Hogwarts somehow.
If Padre loses, things get hairy... they could end up in a 3-way tie at 9-7 with Venom and Dogs, and with head-to-head being 1-1 for all 3, it would go to points-allowed, with Padre over 100 points behind Venom and Dogs. So Padre would drop to #8 for sure.
Now just for fun, let's toss in South Side upsetting Portland as well to ALSO finish 9-7 to create a 4-way tie. In that case, things actually improve for Padre thanks to their win over South Side, which would give them a 2-1 head-to-head record along with Venom. At that point, it would switch to points-allowed between only Padre and Venom. Again, Padre has a 100+-point disadvantage, but would drop no further than #7.
So, Padre has officially clinched a playoff spot. It's just a matter of which spot.
6.) Miami Red Hawks (9-6) - CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT
Game 16: #15 Doofenshmirtz Evil Incorporated (4-11)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts, Venom, South Side; lost to Cincy, Padre, Dogs; 412 points-allowed
In the no-upsets scenario, Miami ends up at the bottom of a 3-way tie with Cincy and Padre, both of whom Miami has already lost to. If Padre gets upset by Orlando, Miami could climb to #5. If Hogwarts loses to create a 4-way tie, that still doesn't help Miami; as explained above, the tie-breaker would go to points-allowed, and Miami is not likely to catch Hogwarts, which would leave Miami at #5 or possibly even #6 behind Padre.
So... what if disaster strikes? What if Doofenshmirtz somehow upsets Miami? That would set up a 3-way tie at 9-7 with Venom and Dogs, with a 1-1 head-to-head record for err'body. In points-allowed, Miami trails both Venom and Dogs by over 100, so Miami would slip to #8.
Now just for fun, let's toss in South Side upsetting Portland as well to ALSO finish 9-7 to create a 4-way tie. But just like with Padre, Miami has already defeated South Side, so their 2-1 head-to-head record would pair them up against Venom in points-allowed. Miami trails by over 100, but would end up at #7, no further.
So, Miami has also officially clinched a playoff spot.
7.) Venom Dotball Academy (8-7)
Game 16: #10 Brazilian Dirty Sanchez (7-8)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated South Side, Dogs; lost to Padre, Miami, Orlando; yet to play Brazilian; 288 points-allowed
Let's look at what would appear on-paper to be the best possible scenario for VDA: VDA and Dogs win, Padre and Miami lose, and a 4-way tie at 9-7 is the result. However, Venom's head-to-head record among those 4 teams is a meager 1-2, which would relegate them to the bottom half along with Miami, also 1-2. From there, points-allowed would settle things, and with a 100+-point advantage over Miami, Venom would take #7.
So, what VDA actually wants is for Padre OR Miami to lose -- but not both. VDA and The Dogs lost to both of them, and Padre and Miami are basically tied in points-allowed, so it doesn't matter which team loses. Just as long as it's just one of them and not both of them. In that case, there would just be a 3-way tie at 9-7 between VDA, Dogs, and either Padre or Miami. Everybody's head-to-head record would be 1-1, so it would go to points-allowed. And here it gets interesting: Dogs 286, Venom 288, Miami 412, Padre 414. Either Miami or Padre would finish at the bottom, so it would basically come down to whether the Dogs or VDA give up more points in their final game. The Dogs have an easier final opponent and would probably take the top spot at #6, but crazier things have happened, so #6 is not out of VDA's reach here either, though #7 is far more likely for VDA.
But... what if VDA gets upset by Brazilian? That would set up a 3-way tie at 8-8 with Brazilian and South Side, and Brazilian's 2-0 head-to-head record would put them at #8 and VDA at #9 -- out of the playoffs. Not even Orlando upsetting Padre to join the tie at 8-8 would help, since Orlando has defeated Venom but lost to Brazilian. If The Dogs somehow got upset by Tyrrhenian, that could push Venom up to #8 over Brazilian based on head-to-head record and points-allowed... but what are the odds of The Dogs actually losing to the Sea Wasps? Slim to none.
So for VDA, barring something crazy, it's win and they're in, lose and they're out.
8.) South Side Mafia (8-7)
Game 16: #1 Portland Niners (14-1)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Dogs, Orlando; lost to Padre, Miami, Venom, Brazilian; 337 points-allowed
Assuming that the only Game 16 upset is South Side over Portland, the resulting 3-way tie at 9-7 would put South Side in at #8 based on their 1-1 head-to-head record behind Venom (2-0) but ahead of The Dogs (0-2). But if you muddy the waters with Padre or Miami getting upset and joining the tie 9-7, the tie-breakers for both head-to-head and points-allowed start breaking against South Side, pushing them down to #9 and out of the playoffs. Then South Side would need Venom or The Dogs to also get upset to help South Side stay at #8.
If South Side loses, their only hope for the playoffs is for The Dogs Of War to somehow, someway, lose to Tyrrhenian. That would set up a tie at 8-8 between South Side and The Dogs, which South Side would win to take #8. Same outcome if both The Dogs and VDA get upset: South Side takes #8. But if The Dogs win and it's VDA that gets upset, that won't help South Side, since they lost to VDA already and thus would lose the tie-breaker to slip to #9.
Put simply, South Side needs to defeat Portland, or they need The Dogs to lose to the Sea Wasps. Neither one is likely.
9.) The Dogs Of War (8-7)
Game 16: #16 Tyrrhenian Sea Wasps (0-15)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Padre, Miami, Brazilian, Orlando; lost to Venom, South Side; 286 points-allowed
Win, and they're probably in... unless of course South Side upsets Portland and locks The Dogs out of the playoffs. Toss in Padre and/or Miami getting upset, and The Dogs could climb surprisingly high in the playoff seedings.
Lose, and... well... quite frankly, anyone who loses to an 0-15 opponent in Game 16 probably doesn't deserve to be in the playoffs anyway.
10.) Brazilian Dirty Sanchez (7-8)
Game 16: #7 Venom Dotball Academy (8-7)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated South Side, Orlando; lost to Dogs; yet to play Venom; 435 points-allowed
Lose to VDA, and Brazilian is out. Not a difficult conclusion to reach.
If BDS upsets VDA, however, their earlier win over South Side means they'd come out on top of the resulting 3-way tie at 8-8 between BDS, South Side and VDA, which would give BDS the #8 seed. The Dogs getting upset by Tyrrhenian could muddy up the waters, but that's not likely at all.
Basically, for BDS, it's win and they're in, lose and they're out.
11.) Orlando Prime Timers (7-8) - ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFF CONTENTION
Game 16: #5 Padre's Parrish (9-6)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Venom; lost to South Side, Dogs, Brazilian; 373 points-allowed
A loss to Padre means Orlando's playoff hopes are done.
If Orlando upsets Padre, that's still not enough to reach the playoffs; they'd just finish #10. Add in BDS upsetting VDA, and it's still not enough... in the resulting 4-way tie at 8-8, Orlando's head-to-head record would be 1-2, not good enough to reach the #8 spot.
Orlando is officially eliminated from playoff contention.
