Warrior General Games

Just got to watch the game, best game of the year by far.

Originally posted by MRichardson
Yeah, 3 rings, what an idiot!

I am not saying he is an idiot in general, just an idiot for going for it in that situation. I wonder if after the game he told his defense that he wasn't confident that they could stop him from going 75 yards in 2 minutes.

Originally posted by Skullkrusher
I am not saying he is an idiot in general, just an idiot for going for it in that situation. I wonder if after the game he told his defense that he wasn't confident that they could stop him from going 75 yards in 2 minutes.

Maybe the message was that he was confident that his offense would get it and confident that his defense could stop them if they didn't get it. I understand the call, just don't agree with the play selection in that situation. 3rd & 2 should have been a power run to at least force the Colts to use a timeout. If you want to go 5 WR on 4th down I am fine with it, but run it on 3rd down.

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

Originally posted by MattyP
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html


Nice stuff... But with only 1:20 on the board and one timeout? i don't think the odds of them getting a TD is all that great really... The Colts HAVE to pass, thus eliminating any threat of a running game... When your offense is that one dimensional, it is pretty easy to blanket the pass pretty well with 7+ Defenders.

The decision to go for it was not that bad of a decision, as Peyton would have plenty of time to march the field if you punt. The play call was terrible. Everyone in the stadium knew that they were going to throw the quick out at the sticks. I think a crossing route would have worked much better there. The Indy pass rush is not that scary.

Originally posted by msupoke
The decision to go for it was not that bad of a decision, as Peyton would have plenty of time to march the field if you punt. The play call was terrible. Everyone in the stadium knew that they were going to throw the quick out at the sticks. I think a crossing route would have worked much better there. The Indy pass rush is not that scary.

Funny, the two sack leaders over the the last 5+ years are Mathis and Freeney but the Indy pass rush is not that good? Are you serious?

Originally posted by rjssob
Originally posted by msupoke

The decision to go for it was not that bad of a decision, as Peyton would have plenty of time to march the field if you punt. The play call was terrible. Everyone in the stadium knew that they were going to throw the quick out at the sticks. I think a crossing route would have worked much better there. The Indy pass rush is not that scary.

Funny, the two sack leaders over the the last 5+ years are Mathis and Freeney but the Indy pass rush is not that good? Are you serious?

A crossing route would require a three step drop. Again, the Indy pass rush is not that scary. I did not say the pass rush is not good. I said that it is not so scary that they had to run that quick out. A full three step drop does not give the pass rush time to get to Brady.

Watch the replay Coach, Welker is running a crossing route....Patriots run gun 90% of the time so in essence there is no 3 step drop, rock the hips and throw. What should have happened:

3 TE Power Set on 3rd and 2 and run it to force a timeout and take advantage of an undersized Indy D Line or...
Go 5 Wide and let Brady come under for the sneak again forcing the timeout

4th Down - I hear you there, a little more patience and go with Moss or Welker, your money guys!

I completely agree with you about third down. Any good coach should be thinking about the next play when he calls the first one. If you are going to go for it on fourth, you don't have to necessarily throw on third. Pound the rock and move the chains that way. If you don't get it, then throw.

I did not see Welker, but he was not even an option. Brady was locked in on that out route, even before the snap. The secondary was keying on it because everyone knew it was coming. You can only go to the well so many times before a team catches on.

He ends up running across from left to right and is right behind Faulk...Brady knew he was going there though.

Originally posted by rjssob
He ends up running across from left to right and is right behind Faulk...Brady knew he was going there though.

I am sure Brady knew, but he was not considering any route but the out. I would have to see the play again. If Welker was there, then the fault falls on Brady and not Belichik.

Originally posted by MattyP
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html


I don't even think the percentages there give the Colts enough credit. It was without a doubt a great call.

Nobody mentions that they would have won had Faulk not bobbled the ball. Or if the line had given Brady time to make his reads and find an open Welker over the middle.

I'm all too familiar with fans blaming the coach for everything because he's the easiest target, what with me being an Eagles fan and whatnot, but it's annoying and it's a shame that it happens, or else most NFL coaches wouldn't act like scared irrational idiots.

If you want to do it yourself: http://belichick-decision.heroku.com/

Originally posted by FredEx
If you want to do it yourself: http://belichick-decision.heroku.com/

Pretty funny stuff!