Zeke:
What you don't seem to understand about AIG is that they are the re-insurers for virtually every other insurance company in this country.
What is a re-insurer? Simple:
Say I have a small local insurance company, and I have 5,000 in-force life insurance policies with an approximate total face value of $500,000,000 (roughly $100,000 apiece).
There's no way for me to have enough cash on hand to cover all, or even a significant percentage of those policies. I'm legally required to keep around 10% of the total value on hand - no big deal, I can use short-term credit swaps to keep that much around for the first few years while I build up premium reserves and re-invest capital.
However, what happens if more than 10% of those policies all of a sudden cash out? I'm screwed - and so are those insurers.
In order to prevent this, the federal government made rules a long time ago requiring that I also buy a re-insurance policy - literally, a low-premium guarantee from a really big company that indemnifies me against a run of policies needing to be paid off. The odds of this happening are low, but it has happened in the past, which is why the laws were put in place to protect policyholders.
AIG writes these reinsurance policies for everyone.
If they go under, suddenly no one has reinsurance. Where do you suppose any of those companies are going to be able to get reinsurance policies in a market like this?
Now, suddenly, the whole insurance industry collapses because no one can meet the regulatory requirements for re-insurance, and as soon as the public gets wind of this news, everyone stops buying insurance because they no longer have confidence in the ability of the insurer to pay their claims.
Except now we have another problem....
Most insurance companies do a lot more than life insurance.
The company I work for also does mortgage insurance. Mortgage insurance is basically like gap insurance on a car loan - it's a guarantee to the bank that if the borrower goes belly up, the insurance policy will pay off what the borrower should have put down on the house (traditionally 20%).
So without the REI, there's no one to write these policies, meaning banks will no longer be willing to approve mortgages with less than 20% down payment unless they're fed underwritten (FHA).
Suddenly the housing market is rocked even harder because people can't buy houses without a huge down payment (kind of like it was back in the 60's and prior)
See the dominoes starting to fall?
It gets worse.
Without REI, there is no insurance industry. Without the insurance industry, banks everywhere collapse. Without the banks, there is no credit. Without credit, every industry in the country screeches to a halt, and the Federal Government collapses in default.
So, if you're ready to embrace something far, far worse than the Great Depression - complete and total anarchy, with a nice side dish of food shortages and rioting, then by all means - let AIG crash and burn.
Some of us would prefer a systematic dismantling of AIG and the purging of their executive suites. Orderly, efficient, and without the nasty side effects of global economic collapse.