Warrior General Games

Originally posted by Sarg01
Originally posted by KevinM



Can you post the power ranking breakdowns again? I love that stuff. It always makes more sense than the predictions themselves IMO.

Just to be clear, my ranking system is not associated with the rankings in this thread. The largest component of my system is roster strength, and in-game results are always referenced back to something. Stats reference back to conference-wide averages. Margin of victories reference back to strength of opponent.

It has the advantage of earlier accuracy and markedly less volatility, but it has a couple of downsides too. The biggest of them is it's not automated, so it takes me about 2 hours to do all the data entry. The next biggest is that since results aren't the largest component that record only indirectly influences the rankings. A 3-3 team can absolutely be ranked below a 2-4 team, etc.

I don't intend to take anything personal and give you grief over them. I jsut htink they're cool.

Sarg has done a good job with his ranking system over the past few seasons.

I love all the rankings it just helps add something to the game. Thanks for doing them guys.

Oh and BTW El Fuego intends to put up a HUGE fight against Christchurch in a few hours.

Originally posted by Sin City
I love all the rankings it just helps add something to the game. Thanks for doing them guys.

Oh and BTW El Fuego intends to put up a HUGE fight against Christchurch in a few hours.

Thanks Sin City. Look guys...the only reason I started doing these again was because nobody else was taking the initiative and the forums had become rather boring (in my opinion).

I never claimed that this spreadsheet was even close to accurate. For the most part I agree with you guys - certain variables can throw the projections way out there. I only wanted to 'spice up' the forums again. The scores it predicts can be wacky but MOST of the time it predicts the correct winner.

I certainly welcome anyone else doing these types of analysis. Sarg01's have always been the best, but (as he stated) they are very time consuming and thus it is unfair for us all to expect him to update it every couple of days.

Originally posted by gatorfan
Originally posted by Sin City

I love all the rankings it just helps add something to the game. Thanks for doing them guys.

Oh and BTW El Fuego intends to put up a HUGE fight against Christchurch in a few hours.

Thanks Sin City. Look guys...the only reason I started doing these again was because nobody else was taking the initiative and the forums had become rather boring (in my opinion).

I never claimed that this spreadsheet was even close to accurate. For the most part I agree with you guys - certain variables can throw the projections way out there. I only wanted to 'spice up' the forums again. The scores it predicts can be wacky but MOST of the time it predicts the correct winner.

I certainly welcome anyone else doing these types of analysis. Sarg01's have always been the best, but (as he stated) they are very time consuming and thus it is unfair for us all to expect him to update it every couple of days.



Well your list has certainly created some forum buzz.

Originally posted by Sarg01
Originally posted by KevinM

What the hell? I know how these formulas come together, and I'm staggered that we get such a high power ranking still. How many times do we have to lose before we stop getting this spotlight shone on us? lol

It ain't you - though it being you doesn't help since the sheet does like you.

The sheet seems to think the Horsemen have the worst D in the conference except for the two gutted teams. Per the numbers at the top of the page, it considers their D roughly twice as porous as that of the Tasmania Sand Gnats, which it considers the 4th worst D in the conference. By these numbers, it considers their D 6 times more porous than Tonga's and a whopping 24 times worse than Christchurch's.

The real irony is the Horsemen have one of the statistically best Ds in the conference.

The Four Horsemen will remain projected to get blown out from now on by every team because of this game:

http://goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=162419

I mean, their defense has to be horrible, since Los Cabalos was able to score on them. And their offense can't be that great either, only putting up 204 points .

It's deja vu from Oceania A3 from last season.

Ah, the good old prevent defense in action there I see. Cabalos scores with 37 seconds left to keep the margin under a mere 200 points!

i, for one, don't take anything personal in the picks. i find extremely interesting and check the forum for them often. in fact, if it wasn't for the picks, i probably wouldn't venture into the forum that much. so thanks to sarg and gatorfan for doing it.

btw sarg, are doing one today?

I enjoy all the rankings and the time people taking into doing them.

Originally posted by beouf
i, for one, don't take anything personal in the picks. i find extremely interesting and check the forum for them often. in fact, if it wasn't for the picks, i probably wouldn't venture into the forum that much. so thanks to sarg and gatorfan for doing it.

btw sarg, are doing one today?

Same here.

Originally posted by gatorfan
Originally posted by Sin City

I love all the rankings it just helps add something to the game. Thanks for doing them guys.

Oh and BTW El Fuego intends to put up a HUGE fight against Christchurch in a few hours.

Thanks Sin City. Look guys...the only reason I started doing these again was because nobody else was taking the initiative and the forums had become rather boring (in my opinion).

I never claimed that this spreadsheet was even close to accurate. For the most part I agree with you guys - certain variables can throw the projections way out there. I only wanted to 'spice up' the forums again. The scores it predicts can be wacky but MOST of the time it predicts the correct winner.

I certainly welcome anyone else doing these types of analysis. Sarg01's have always been the best, but (as he stated) they are very time consuming and thus it is unfair for us all to expect him to update it every couple of days.



You really should have just waited for me to get back from vacation

Man, I do love watching people get bent out of shape. You guys realize he's just putting numbers into spreadsheets, right?

Originally posted by G33
Originally posted by Sarg01

Originally posted by KevinM


What the hell? I know how these formulas come together, and I'm staggered that we get such a high power ranking still. How many times do we have to lose before we stop getting this spotlight shone on us? lol

It ain't you - though it being you doesn't help since the sheet does like you.

The sheet seems to think the Horsemen have the worst D in the conference except for the two gutted teams. Per the numbers at the top of the page, it considers their D roughly twice as porous as that of the Tasmania Sand Gnats, which it considers the 4th worst D in the conference. By these numbers, it considers their D 6 times more porous than Tonga's and a whopping 24 times worse than Christchurch's.

The real irony is the Horsemen have one of the statistically best Ds in the conference.

The Four Horsemen will remain projected to get blown out from now on by every team because of this game:

http://goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=162419

I mean, their defense has to be horrible, since Los Cabalos was able to score on them. And their offense can't be that great either, only putting up 204 points .

It's deja vu from Oceania A3 from last season.

Yup. If you plug 255-0 into that game, I bet the Horsemen suddenly look like contenders again in the rankings.

Originally posted by Sin City
I love all the rankings it just helps add something to the game. Thanks for doing them guys.

Oh and BTW El Fuego intends to put up a HUGE fight against Christchurch in a few hours.

That definitely was a fight. GG El Fuego!!

Originally posted by Stubbs
Originally posted by Sin City

I love all the rankings it just helps add something to the game. Thanks for doing them guys.

Oh and BTW El Fuego intends to put up a HUGE fight against Christchurch in a few hours.

That definitely was a fight. GG El Fuego!!

That was a big fight indeed. Enjoyable to watch, not being in it, of course!
Great game, to both teams.

And on a side note, our predicted spread with Cimmerian was pretty close, looking back on it. I'd like to wish the Barbarians a good game; you all have falled on some pretty hard luck this year. Keep on working at it, because I'd like to see you all back in the playoffs in Season 6, if not this season.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edit:
What a week this was for Zeta! Mauna Kea standing and delivering against Dunedin, moving themselves up to 6-1. The Christchurch/Fuego battle. How about the Alchemy upsetting the Horsemen this week? A close one with big playoff applications going the way of the Devils over the Warriors. This is nice to see!

Man, I'm glad that we finally validated all those close games with a quality win! This conference is fun to watch, there are definitely no sure things among the playoff contenders. Except probably for Tonga.