Warrior General Games

Daaaamn, Xars be dropping stat bombs left n right up in this bitch!

Because you are thinking that these stats are the be all end all of the discussion without even actually thinking about the data. Take TE Post for example, it's been called 661 times this season in Vet against OWMB alone. It has a YPC of 11.11 which you think means that it normally wouldn't qualify for you Quick Hitter at 9 Yards....until you actually think.

TE Post has completed passes to WR3 72 times for a 15.4YPC. Wouldn't qualify for most until you look at where the WR is when the QB releases the ball, if the WR is still 9 yards or less from the LOS then it still qualifies for Quick Hitter. With 33 of those passes being completed at 13 yards or less it's a good chance that some would get the bonus.

TE Post has completed passes to the TE 97 times alone 9 yards or under, 100 times at 9-11 yards, 49 times at 12-14 yards, and 8 times at > 15 yards.

TE Post has completed passes to WR1 13 times, all under 9 yards.

TE Post has completed passes to WR2 8 times all between 11-18 yards.

TE Post has completed passes to HB 2 times for 5 & 4 yards each.


And that's just the completions we can see in this format, that number would definitely go up with Quick Hitter firing on nearly half of those passes.

Just so you can see what I'm talking about, this is you running TE Post which completed a pass to the TE for 11 yards. Where is the TE when the ball is released?

http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/215211/947572

More stats for you since you love them so much, we all know that you spam all the good deep passes and you still have ~310 completions of 11 yards or less where most of those are going to get the Quick Hitter bonus. That's 40% of all your completions.

If it's coded by WR position at QB release point, then 9 yards is too much.

If it's coded by where the WR catches the ball, 9 yards is fine.

Do you know which way it's coded?

And as I stated in my previous post..

Originally posted by Xars


(Sidebar: The analysis for TE Post for LZ Boys is:

SB TE Post 57.9% Comp% 6.7 YPA 11.50 YPC --- 30.5% 10+ YPC (52.67% of catches)

So TE Post would be buffed on 47+% of catches and nerfed on 52% of catches. That arguement can go either way depending on how significant the buff/nerf is.)


So I guess the conclusion is you agree with me on the other plays, but are choosing to make an issue of TE Post only?

Originally posted by Parab00n
More stats for you since you love them so much, we all know that you spam all the good deep passes and you still have ~310 completions of 11 yards or less where most of those are going to get the Quick Hitter bonus. That's 40% of all your completions.

And I don't have Quick Hitter on my QB.

So I wouldn't get the bonus on 40% of my completions.

I'd get it on none (0%).

it would have to be coded as where the wr is when the ball is released. if it is coded where the wr ctaches it then how can it really fire? the wr is moving when the qb throws. if it fires before the wr catches it affects where the wr is not where the wr catches it.

Originally posted by dredgar
it would have to be coded as where the wr is when the ball is released. if it is coded where the wr ctaches it then how can it really fire? the wr is moving when the qb throws. if it fires before the wr catches it affects where the wr is not where the wr catches it.

Easy. You could base it on where the QB's target is, which is determined before the ball is released.

Originally posted by Xars
And I don't have Quick Hitter on my QB.

So I wouldn't get the bonus on 40% of my completions.

I'd get it on none (0%).





It's an example of the team who throws the most deep passes in the game and the amount of times it could fire...

Originally posted by Xars
So I guess the conclusion is you agree with me on the other plays, but are choosing to make an issue of TE Post only?



I used the play that is being used the most this season, I could also do WR Hook since it's pretty close to 2nd. How about TE Crosses?


Originally posted by Xars
If it's coded by WR position at QB release point, then 9 yards is too much.

If it's coded by where the WR catches the ball, 9 yards is fine.

Do you know which way it's coded?



No clue, from what I can tell it doesnt fire while Quick Read or OTR is active which for most QBs is nearly every play. Considering the QB is guessing where the WR is going to be when he throws it I'd probably assume that its the WRs current location when the throw roll happens.

Saying all that, my point is that new plays and a new passing SA doesn't fix shit. Deep passes into double/triple coverage and how difficult it is to catch short passes is the problem that needs to be addressed. And before CD comes here and claims no one puts any points into Elusive/Power Running, you can't because if you sacrifice Speed/Quickness/Hands/CiT/etc, etc you are then you most likely aren't going to catch the ball to begin with.

Originally posted by Parab00n
Saying all that, my point is that new plays and a new passing SA doesn't fix shit.

True, but if adjusting QH or some other SA helps that wouldn't be a bad thing though.

Originally posted by Parab00n
Deep passes into double/triple coverage and how difficult it is to catch short passes is the problem that needs to be addressed.

Absolutely true. Double/Triple coverage should cause a huge nerf to WR CiT and a huge buff to CB Deflection/Interception/CoverTech. Short Passes should get some kind of natural buff.

Originally posted by Parab00n
And before CD comes here and claims no one puts any points into Elusive/Power Running, you can't because if you sacrifice Speed/Quickness/Hands/CiT/etc, etc you are then you most likely aren't going to catch the ball to begin with.

True.

Whatever gets changed, the Passing Game shouldn't be "Throw three times for a First Down" and succeed 80% of the time. That's the problem.

For S13, LogZilla has had 791 First Down plays. LZ has 553 First Downs and 122 TDs. That's an Offensive success rate of 85.33% conversion (or Efficiency). Punts, Field Goal attempts, Turnovers are non-conversions.

That means that the Fail Rate is 14.66% (1-85.33%). Which means on average that LZ gets 6.81 First Downs per Drive. Since the average completion for LZ is 14.0 yards, this means that Drives average 95 yards. (These numbers are certainly influenced upwards by CPU/inactive teams.)

The main culprit is plays like TE Drive. It's not the overall completion rate; it's the completion rate of 10+ YPC.

The key # is 40%. If a play can generate a 10+ YPC 40% of the time, it becomes spammable. Why? Because the Fail Rate math is (1-40%)^3. Even with a 60% fail rate per play, the three down fail rate is 21.6%. That means the average Drive becomes 4.6 First Downs (1/.216). That works out to 50-60 yard drives on average. And if that's the Global Average, then Pure Pass teams can drive that number lower, increasing the number of First Downs and thus longer drives.

Drop 10+ YPC to 30% (and raise the completion% a little on the dump off passes) and the efficiency of spamming a play drops precipitously. A 70% Fail rate over three plays is 34.3% - or an average drive of 2.9 First Downs or about 40 yards.

Originally posted by Xars
The main culprit is plays like TE Drive. It's not the overall completion rate; it's the completion rate of 10+ YPC.


I wonder if we could get Stobie to add this number to Analyzer?

fix things that are not game play. game admins spend way to much time tweaking game play and zero time fixing the website itself. not cool