Originally posted by Havoc
Ok, it's been over a decade since my graduate stats classes, but if I remember correctly 3 standard devs above the mean in a normal distribution is around 90%, so his confidence number is saying that he is 95% sure that the favored team has a 90% chance of winning!
So overall he's giving the favored team an ~85.5% chance of winning, but just saying it in a fancy way 
You're off a bit on the math, but at least heave the concept correct...
...again, however, all was rendered moot by the Invaders massive boosting (between 35-40% of your team boosted). Keep in mind that after all that boosting (which Fiji did barely any to none) you still only won the game by 4...despite having a large level gap advantage(42 overall to 39).
Overall, entirely too much has been made of it anyway. I do, however, stand by my pre-boost numbers, and feel that if you had not boosted, you would have lost. That, however, is pure speculation, and I'm not interested in continuing that conversation any further.
Also of note, while my alpha predictions this year were a bit off...if you look at the Zeta side of the house, I nailed it from the get go...which I think, lends a little more credibility to my "boost" theory for the alpha predictions.
