Warrior General Games

Originally posted by Sov.
gg xars, i saw before the game you havent switched up your D all season so I got greedy and didnt account for an adjustment so when i saw you switched it up I thought you had us but our D held strong. seeing logzilla go below 50% was surprising, def a clear example of the downfall of passing this season

Nope same D. Not sure what wrinkle you saw, but that was the same D. Unless someone else put something in there. (Just checked - nope).

Grats on the win. Doubt even my best efforts would have yielded a different result.

With respect to Passing, I actually don't have an opinion as I haven't watched or game planned a single game for LZ this season (or SCO).

Keep thinking I will and keep getting too busy with work.

idk i am new to scout tool (beta testing the new version for stobie) so i could be wrong, but it shows you used a new 2wr and 2TE defensive plays that you havent used all season. weird, but yeah gg for sure. probably worth watching some of your games and adjusting your offensive playbooks a bit, plays like WR cross and TE drive seem to have taken a significant hit

Originally posted by TDiddy8701
yea, I have no clue what USC is thinking...

I'm with you on this one Rob... which doesn't happen often

If anyone knows passing on GLB2, it's Rob, Xars, and myself. I'm sure Xars would agree with what Rob said also.


Again, anyone with good CB builds can shut down the pass with the most basic of playbooks (two or three plays are all you really need)... Rob, Sov, Xars, and I typically torch other teams with our passing, but know good CB, S, and coverage LB builds, so we often hold each others QBs to very low marks. A good run defense needs a great defensive playbook (with can include outside run plays, zone, and CB blitzing schemes, that can make them very hard to build with tactics settings) to be successful.

if anything that makes you the worst candidates for this. you rely so heavily on the pass it prevents you from being objective. I have run all sorts of offenses from run only, pass only, formation specific almost every concept you can think of I have probably ran it for at least a season. I have tested so many plays but I always know that a passing offense that doesnt run the god plays will never be as productive as those that do. I'm not discrediting any of you but I feel you rely too much on the pass to really look at it.

Originally posted by USC_Trojans
if anything that makes you the worst candidates for this. you rely so heavily on the pass it prevents you from being objective. I have run all sorts of offenses from run only, pass only, formation specific almost every concept you can think of I have probably ran it for at least a season. I have tested so many plays but I always know that a passing offense that doesnt run the god plays will never be as productive as those that do. I'm not discrediting any of you but I feel you rely too much on the pass to really look at it.

The global data Rob posted is a large enough sample across so many teams and builds that it's highly useful. Passing would seem down.

The best Passing plays have been nerfed some for most teams. Passing is still a lopsided (skewed is typically the accurate term) bell curve. There aren't enough "average to above average" plays. Either most Passing plays just flat out suck or no one has figured out the builds necessary to execute them well.

So I just checked scout tool for LogZilla's Passing O. TE Drive, all three versions, are virtually unchanged. In fact, you could argue they have actually improved some.

But since I'm not watching the games, I don't want to only rely on stats.

Originally posted by Xars

So I just checked scout tool for LogZilla's Passing O. TE Drive, all three versions, are virtually unchanged. In fact, you could argue they have actually improved some.

But since I'm not watching the games, I don't want to only rely on stats.


You would be hard pressed to argue that it hasn't improved for Logzilla(based on stats alone). Saying that, I haven't watched a single Logzilla game or anyone besides DD this season. I don't really think the passing changes that were implemented this off season did anything, I think it has more to do with teams being focused on stopping the pass. Defenses are always a couple seasons behind because you can't change your focus, if rushing is the strongest when you are at Rookie-Seasoned then you most likely have a run stopping defense. If that Meta changes then you are pretty much stuck since the FA market in this game isn't that great. I think I've made this point before, but go back and compare lolRun defense bars back when the Stunners were on top to now. It is much, much lower.

Logzilla

S12:
SB TE Drive - 56.8% 8.6 YPA
SG TE Drive - 52.8% 7.6 YPA
SB Big TE Drive - Only ran 10 times

S13:
SB TE Drive - 55% 7.8 YPA
SG TE Drive - 56.8% 8.4 YPA
SB Big TE Drive - 54% 8.7 YPA

S14:
SB TE Drive - 58.2% 8.3 YPA
SG TE Drive - 59.4% 8.4 YPA
SB Big TE Drive - 47.3% 7.4 YPA (Pretty big drop here)

Madisons W/L success since S2 has almost been exactly reflective of the strength of running vs passing. The seasons GLB2 was a pass-heavy sim, we were very successful, when it was run-heavy, not so much.

Our pass/run ratio also usually reflects the strength of each in the sim... Seasons pass is strong, we go 80/20 or 85/15... currently we are 60/40ish, due to counter spamming effectiveness, and general strength of the run in the sim, so USC, we aren't anywhere near as reliable on the pass as we have been in the past.

We are weak against the pass compared to past seasons. It's not that passing is stronger, but we can not call optimal pass defenses due to counter spam. We are either terrible defending the run or the pass, or just bad at both.

Originally posted by TDiddy8701
currently we are 60/40ish, due to counter spamming effectiveness, and general strength of the run in the sim

If it's 60/40 how is it considered spam? Can't we stop calling it counter spam at this point? You've ran 13 counters all season and your real percentage is more around 80/20 this season... not sure where you got 60/40.

Neither pass nor run is overpowered right now, the sim is actually pretty fucking decent. If you're not able to stop one or the other, it's a build issue.

I usually defend run USC, but your argument is just laughable at this point.

I think it's pretty damn decent right now too. We built to stop the pass.. which we can, but struggle against the run. (Build issue) The only thing I will add to USC's argument.... If I tell you I'm going to run a sweep out of the BIG I to the left it isn't going to do very well because you will stop it. If you told me you are going to run TE Drive Every time you are going to still complete it 50% of the time for 10+ yards. The SPAM plays should be able to be almost 100% shut down BOTH ways if you know it is coming.

Ok, here's how I look at Offensive stats. (And quite frankly how all of you should too - because yes, I'm right. )

Offense Efficiency - formula = (First Downs Earned + TDs) / (First Downs Started)

Basically, punts, FGs, turnovers are all outcomes where a First Down isn't achieved. The achievement of a First Down eventually leads to more First Downs until a TD is scored.

So I took the Top 25 teams and only used games against the current Top 25 teams. Games are running today so some got today's game and some didn't but that shouldn't matter all that much.

Here are the stats (sorted by Avg # of First Downs per Drive - last number):

S14 Top Ladder Teams ID Run% First Down Plays First Down Earned TDs O Eff Avg Drive
DA 733 48 734 513 123 86.65% 7.49
DD 156 53 605 423 79 82.98% 5.87
Hostile Takeover 897 13 659 459 84 82.40% 5.68
Bronx Bombers 1296 29 584 409 72 82.36% 5.67
LogZilla Boys 397 3 696 492 78 81.90% 5.52
Zombie Apocalypse 1291 82 393 256 65 81.68% 5.46
Central Falcons 1051 76 499 337 68 81.16% 5.31
Madison Bulldogs 373 19 586 381 81 78.84% 4.73
MEM 78 91 481 299 78 78.38% 4.63
Blood, Sweat & Beers 1367 0 564 379 60 77.84% 4.51
Hawaii Bulls 161 32 518 344 58 77.61% 4.47
Columbus Cobras 1148 1 462 320 33 76.41% 4.24
Animal Kingdom 1380 100 473 289 70 75.90% 4.15
Freakville Sampcats 1372 44 586 378 66 75.77% 4.13
Whoville Whos 933 31 431 277 34 72.16% 3.59
Marvel's Avengers 1379 5 521 338 33 71.21% 3.47
Michigan Madness 433 17 482 298 41 70.33% 3.37
Robot Lords of Tokyo 23 38 491 297 44 69.45% 3.27
Miami Sharktopus 1294 47 385 235 32 69.35% 3.26
Missingno Space Monkey 1370 16 459 286 25 67.76% 3.10
Rock City Mayhem 1377 16 428 255 33 67.29% 3.06
San Antonio Gunslingers 1124 25 407 247 19 65.36% 2.89
Dakota Dragons 1262 49 394 237 19 64.97% 2.86
Music City Miracle 43 15 486 286 29 64.81% 2.84
Green Bay Packers 75 5 455 218 9 49.89% 2.00

Conclusion:

Balanced teams like DA and DD lead the pack. The top Pass heavy teams (Bronx, HT, LZ) are still right up there. Run Heavy teams like ZA and CF are right behind the Pass Heavy teams, but probably within the margin of error.

The ranks of 2 through 7 are separated by (82.98% to 81.16%) 1.82%. The Top teams are within the margin of error I'd say.

The outlier is DA. Is anyone surprised it's Rob? Didn't think so.

Builds and play calling still matter as BSB and Columbus are Pass Heavy teams that aren't in the elite Top 5. AK is a 100% run team and isn't elite either. Freakville, Miami and Dakota are close to balanced but not elite either.

Passing and Rushing seem pretty balanced overall. The key is still builds and play calling.

When I look at the above and sort by play calling %, the general result is this:

If you're close to PURE Passing, adding in Rushing helps.
If you're close to PURE Rushing, adding in Passing helps.

Isn't that the idea?

Yeah, I think most people have been saying this is the most balanced the sim may have ever been.

Doesn't mean there aren't still issues (like counters), but it is nice to see that positive progress has been made over the last 14 seasons.

Nice work Xars, I imagine that took quite a bit of time to compile that.

Thanks for all that info Xars. Excellent work as always. I think my view on the state of passing may have been slightly off.

Up through season 11 I went pass heavy on all my teams that I OC'ed because it was easier and better than any other options. I had a feeling that balanced offenses were going to take a step forward so I made the adjustment for DA and planned Hall of Fame as a balanced attack. Then last season happened and the game completely changed. Suddenly I was losing to teams I would never lose to before when I went heavy passing on DA and Porn.

It may be totally build and playcalling related, but I have seen the passing game get shut down in ways I never remember happening before. I knew I couldn't lean 100% on the pass game anymore and made the switch for all my teams. Is the passing game worse or did the other offenses just catch up? I guess balanced and run heavy just caught up.

With that said, I still believe passing took a slight step backwards. This is from watching all my teams, but again it may just be defensive builds.

Maybe counters being OP was kind of key to the balance of everything after all? Will toning them down slightly wreck the balance we currently have? While I love the current balance, I still think counters go for TD's way too often against soooo many different playcalls.