Good evening, everyone! Just three games to go to decide the Zeta playoff picture for Season 4! I tell you, the picture really came into focus this week, based on two games in particular. First, the Dunedin "upset" of Tonga locked Bikini Atoll, Dunedin, and Christchurch into home playoff games; the loser of this week's big Tonga-Horsemen matchup will be mathematically unable to snatch homefield away from any of the top three, so those spots are solid. Further down the playoff picture, the Uluru "upset" of Coney Island really made things a lot clearer there as well. The Coney Island loss mathematically locks Fuego and upstart Uluru into playoff spots. 7 spots are set, and now the battle for 8th is getting pretty spicy. Redscape drops out, since the tiebreakers as they stand make it impossible for them to join the fray. Four rivals remain: Chinese, Mauna Kea, Coney Island, and Cimmerian. Who will get that spot? Who will put a chokehold on the 4th homefield spot? This week will tell the tale.
Below, I predict that a whopping FOUR teams will finish with 7-9 records. Here are the projected head-to-head records of these teams, assuming no upsets. The Chinese would claim the final playoff spot, with 9th-11th being decided by tiebreakers, mainly points scored. Needless to say, for playoff purposes, this week's Chinese-Mauna Kea and Cimmerian-Uluru games are HUGE:
Chinese: 3-0
Coney Island: 1-2 (395 pts.)
Mauna Kea: 1-2 (349 pts.)
Cimmerian: 1-2 (293 pts.)
Now, onto the individual reports!
Games left: 3
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth
Standings:
1-Y: Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds, 12-1
2-Y: Dunedin Wolverines, 12-1
3-Y: Christchurch Knightmares, 12-1
4-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 10-3
5-X. The Four Horsemen, 10-3
6-X. El Fuego, 8-5
7. Uluru Rockies, 8-5
8. Chinese Bandits, 6-7
9. Mauna Kea Chenabogs, 6-7
10. Coney Island Warriors, 5-8
11. Cimmerian Barbarians, 5-8
Team scenarios:
1. Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds: 1st, 12-1
I tell you, it was just business as usual for the Shrooms, as they smashed FPQA 70-7; that's a dozen wins in a row, and this team has to be a prohibitive favorite for the top seed in this conference. There's almost no prayer of an upset this week as well, as Bikini Atoll faces Asau. In Week 15, Bikini Atoll finishes their Zeta schedule with surging Mauna Kea; however, I just cannot see how the Chenabogs would respond to that sort of firepower. Not that we don't have excitement here, though: the Alpha draw is interesting, as the Teeth Smashers travel to the Atoll; of course, you have to believe Bikini Atoll's going to win, but I look for the Teeth Smashers to give these Shrooms a test. With the victory over Christchurch, it looks like Bikini Atoll will claim the regular season crown.
Predicted finish: 15-1, 1st
2. Dunedin Wolverines: 2nd, 12-1
I think Dunedin might've put last week's report up in the locker room, because the Wolverines absolutely embarassed Tonga 41-23 to claim their 7th straight. Let's make it 8 straight, shall we, as Dunedin gets a near-lock against FPQA in their home finale. What the heck, let's make it 9, as Dunedin landing at Asau in Week 15 for another one that is a near-lock. However, I don't believe the Wolverines will make it 10, as they go to Sydney to face a solid Sea Dragons squad in a brutal Alpha draw; this game favors Sydney due to some mismatches, but we've learned never to count out Dunedin, who has some great gameplanning. Now, it means a TON in the playoff picture, as an upset could mean a 3-way tiebreak between the then 15-1 teams; likely Dunedin wouldn't be first due to points scored, but still, 2nd isn't a bad place to be.
Predicted finish: 14-2, 3rd
3. Christchurch Knightmares: 3rd, 12-1
The Knightmares claimed their 8th in a row this past week, defeating El Fuego in a nice defensive battle, 16-3. The Week 14 game for Christchurch is at home against Tasmania, and I feel comfortable calling this a near-lock. The following week, Christchurch travel to Coney Island for a game that the Knightmares should win handily. Alice Springs comes down to Christchurch in the Alpha draw; though the Fire is a very solid team, I still see the Knightmares prevailing. The Knightmares will probably lock up 2 home playoff games, but hoping for a Dunedin loss in Week 16 doesn't hurt, either.
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd
4. Tonga Thunderbirds: 10-3, 4th
OUCH. The high-flying Wolverines laid an absolute whipping on Tonga, 41-23 last week. No rest for the weary, though, as slip-sliding Tonga faces a third straight solid opponent at The Horsemen this week; I feel sheepish favoring Tonga here, as these are two teams moving in opposite directions, but I think the talent at Tonga pulls them through this storm. The journey gets a bit easier for Week 15, as the Thunderbirds face Uluru at home; I have to favor Tonga here, but after the way this last stretch has went, anything's possible. The Alpha draw is actually very favorable for the Thunderbirds, who see Gainesville, which is just about a near-lock. The Thunderbirds have already locked up the 4-5 game with the Horsemen; basically, the $1M+ in playoff revenue rides on the game this week.
Predicted finish: 13-3, 4th
5. The Four Horsemen: 10-3, 5th
The Horsemen rolled to their 6th straight win, blanking Cimmerian resoundingly, 45-0. In Week 14, the Horsemen catch Tonga at the absolute best time for them; of course, I'm favoring Tonga based on the matchups, but the time is absolutely right for a Horsemen upset. The Horsemen close out their Zeta schedule in Week 15 against FPQA, which is pretty much a near-lock. The Alpha game against South Austrailian, however is an interesting one, though it should favor The Horsemen; however, keep a watch here though, as this is one of the more intriguing matchups in an already solid Week 16 slate. I see a 2-1 finish, good enough for 5th. Win this week, though, and Tonga has to come right back for Round 1!
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th
6. El Fuego: 8-5, 6th
It's not totally surprising that Christchurch downed Fuego this week; in fact, I think Fuego put up a very solid defensive effort. If there's any reward, Fuego travels to Redscape this week in a game which Fuego should win fairly easily. In Week 15, Fuego closes it's Zeta slate against Chinese; I have to take Fuego here, but the Chinese have a bunch of talent and are currently fighting for their playoff lives, so this one will be pretty tight! The Alpha draw has Fuego at home against Manilla at home, and Fuego should have no troubles against the Gorillaz. 3-0 looks likely to end the schedule, assuming solid work from Fuego down the stretch.
Predicted finish: 11-5, 6th
7. Uluru Rockies: 7th, 8-5
Welcome to the playoffs for the first time, Rockies! You did what you had to, "upsetting" Coney Island by a convincing 37-20 score. This takes some of the luster off the game against Cimmerian this week, but I still think the Rockies will get to 9 wins after this contest. The last Zeta game is at Tonga in Week 15, and I cannot favor Uluru, but if Tonga drops one to the Horsemen this week, this one could get mighty interesting! However, the Alpha draw is BRUTAL, as they have to go to a Molokai team who's the prohibitive favority in Alpha; no upset here, methinks. 1-2 looks like the finish here, but the playoff spot's clinched, so it's not as consequential now.
Predicted finish: 9-7, 7th
8. Chinese Bandits: 8th, 6-7
This week's game of "Musical Chairs" for the 8th playoff spot has ended, and now the Chinese are in the seat after thumping Redscape 42-17. This week, Chinese rides into Mauna Kea for a HUGE, and I do mean HUGE, face-off; the winner of this game has the driver's seat to a playoff game, while the loser has likely dug themselves too deep a hole to climb from. Likewise, the next week features a big game at Fuego, and I think the Chinese can't be favored to win; however, the Chinese certainly have the talent to do it, and 2-in-a-row now would likely lock them into the playoffs. The Bandits' Alpha matchup sees them playing at a solid Easter Island squad; Easter Island should be favored over the Chinese here. The 6-point win over Coney Island is huge now, but the 11-point loss to Cimmerian negates that. The way it shakes out now, as crazy as it sounds, a 7-9 team will likely make the postseason. Frankly, if you see the top of the page, I think it'll be the Chinese; going 3-0 against like competition never hurt anyone!
Predicted finish: 7-9, 8th
9. Mauna Kea Chenabogs: 9th, 6-7
What a difference two weeks makes! The Chenabogs have went from barely being included in this prediction to statistically tied for the final playoff spot, thanks to a 38-7 win over fledgling Asau. However, this week's game is against a Chinese team that also has a 6-7 record, and I just don't think the Chenabogs have the guns to do it; however, never sleep on the team that's peaking at the right time. The Zeta finale is against the Zeta conference leader, Bikini Atoll, and I'm almost certain the Chenabogs don't have the strength to withstand this one. However, the Alpha draw is quite favorable, as the Chenabogs travel to play a down-on-its-luck Vanuatu squad, and Mauna Kea will definitely be favored in this contest. The 4-point loss to Cimmerian earlier this season is crushing with these playoff standings as garbled as they are. Win against Chinese, you're probably in; lose, you're almost certainly not.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 10th
10. Coney Island Warriors: 10th, 5-8
Dropping 4 straight is never good. Dropping your 4th straight against an opponent you almost HAD to beat to claim a playoff spot is even worse, but that's what happened in that 37-20 loss. However, the Warriors should snap that streak this week as they travel to Dirty South to play a game that really should be a near-lock. After that, the Warriors finish their Zeta slate against Christchurch; now, in all likelihood, they have to win this one to slide into the playoffs, and if they can't beat Uluru, I can't possibly see them beating an overwhelming Christchurch squad. However, the all-important Alpha draw was very sweet to the Warriors, as they face a weak Somoa squad in a game that is just about a near-lock for them. The "Cardiac Kids" didn't have enough heart (yes, bad pun) to beat Uluru, and now they need a pulse-stopping (yes, another) game against the Knightmares, and I think the clock's run out on them.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 9th
11. Cimmerian Barbarians: 11th, 5-8
Cimmerian dropped their third straight this week, absolutely getting pummeled by the Horsemen, 45-0. This week's game at Uluru is HUGE for Cimmerian; an upset means they can parlay momentum into a playoff bid, while a loss means that they're pretty much banished from this poll. The Week 15 Zeta finale against the relegation-bound Dirty South team should pose absolutely no problems in this near-lock. Incredibly, the Barbarians have a near-lock the following week as well, against a vastly inferior Origrammar squad. As low as they are in the rankings right now, they have the BEST shot to run the table and get into the playoffs. I still say 2-1, but hey, upset Uluru, and they get in by the enamel on their teeth.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 11th
------------------------------------------------------------
As always, I truly do thank you for the kind compliments; they really mean a lot to me, and they really help inspire me to get these editions out late on the night before games. I apologize to Alpha, but I'm just not going to be able to do them this season for you all; I just don't have enough time in the day. Again, as always, I mean no disrespect to any team, for I call the games as I think they're going to roll. Good luck in Week 14, everyone, and I'll have a new batch out come Friday night!
Below, I predict that a whopping FOUR teams will finish with 7-9 records. Here are the projected head-to-head records of these teams, assuming no upsets. The Chinese would claim the final playoff spot, with 9th-11th being decided by tiebreakers, mainly points scored. Needless to say, for playoff purposes, this week's Chinese-Mauna Kea and Cimmerian-Uluru games are HUGE:
Chinese: 3-0
Coney Island: 1-2 (395 pts.)
Mauna Kea: 1-2 (349 pts.)
Cimmerian: 1-2 (293 pts.)
Now, onto the individual reports!
Games left: 3
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth
Standings:
1-Y: Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds, 12-1
2-Y: Dunedin Wolverines, 12-1
3-Y: Christchurch Knightmares, 12-1
4-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 10-3
5-X. The Four Horsemen, 10-3
6-X. El Fuego, 8-5
7. Uluru Rockies, 8-5
8. Chinese Bandits, 6-7
9. Mauna Kea Chenabogs, 6-7
10. Coney Island Warriors, 5-8
11. Cimmerian Barbarians, 5-8
Team scenarios:
1. Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds: 1st, 12-1
I tell you, it was just business as usual for the Shrooms, as they smashed FPQA 70-7; that's a dozen wins in a row, and this team has to be a prohibitive favorite for the top seed in this conference. There's almost no prayer of an upset this week as well, as Bikini Atoll faces Asau. In Week 15, Bikini Atoll finishes their Zeta schedule with surging Mauna Kea; however, I just cannot see how the Chenabogs would respond to that sort of firepower. Not that we don't have excitement here, though: the Alpha draw is interesting, as the Teeth Smashers travel to the Atoll; of course, you have to believe Bikini Atoll's going to win, but I look for the Teeth Smashers to give these Shrooms a test. With the victory over Christchurch, it looks like Bikini Atoll will claim the regular season crown.
Predicted finish: 15-1, 1st
2. Dunedin Wolverines: 2nd, 12-1
I think Dunedin might've put last week's report up in the locker room, because the Wolverines absolutely embarassed Tonga 41-23 to claim their 7th straight. Let's make it 8 straight, shall we, as Dunedin gets a near-lock against FPQA in their home finale. What the heck, let's make it 9, as Dunedin landing at Asau in Week 15 for another one that is a near-lock. However, I don't believe the Wolverines will make it 10, as they go to Sydney to face a solid Sea Dragons squad in a brutal Alpha draw; this game favors Sydney due to some mismatches, but we've learned never to count out Dunedin, who has some great gameplanning. Now, it means a TON in the playoff picture, as an upset could mean a 3-way tiebreak between the then 15-1 teams; likely Dunedin wouldn't be first due to points scored, but still, 2nd isn't a bad place to be.
Predicted finish: 14-2, 3rd
3. Christchurch Knightmares: 3rd, 12-1
The Knightmares claimed their 8th in a row this past week, defeating El Fuego in a nice defensive battle, 16-3. The Week 14 game for Christchurch is at home against Tasmania, and I feel comfortable calling this a near-lock. The following week, Christchurch travel to Coney Island for a game that the Knightmares should win handily. Alice Springs comes down to Christchurch in the Alpha draw; though the Fire is a very solid team, I still see the Knightmares prevailing. The Knightmares will probably lock up 2 home playoff games, but hoping for a Dunedin loss in Week 16 doesn't hurt, either.
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd
4. Tonga Thunderbirds: 10-3, 4th
OUCH. The high-flying Wolverines laid an absolute whipping on Tonga, 41-23 last week. No rest for the weary, though, as slip-sliding Tonga faces a third straight solid opponent at The Horsemen this week; I feel sheepish favoring Tonga here, as these are two teams moving in opposite directions, but I think the talent at Tonga pulls them through this storm. The journey gets a bit easier for Week 15, as the Thunderbirds face Uluru at home; I have to favor Tonga here, but after the way this last stretch has went, anything's possible. The Alpha draw is actually very favorable for the Thunderbirds, who see Gainesville, which is just about a near-lock. The Thunderbirds have already locked up the 4-5 game with the Horsemen; basically, the $1M+ in playoff revenue rides on the game this week.
Predicted finish: 13-3, 4th
5. The Four Horsemen: 10-3, 5th
The Horsemen rolled to their 6th straight win, blanking Cimmerian resoundingly, 45-0. In Week 14, the Horsemen catch Tonga at the absolute best time for them; of course, I'm favoring Tonga based on the matchups, but the time is absolutely right for a Horsemen upset. The Horsemen close out their Zeta schedule in Week 15 against FPQA, which is pretty much a near-lock. The Alpha game against South Austrailian, however is an interesting one, though it should favor The Horsemen; however, keep a watch here though, as this is one of the more intriguing matchups in an already solid Week 16 slate. I see a 2-1 finish, good enough for 5th. Win this week, though, and Tonga has to come right back for Round 1!
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th
6. El Fuego: 8-5, 6th
It's not totally surprising that Christchurch downed Fuego this week; in fact, I think Fuego put up a very solid defensive effort. If there's any reward, Fuego travels to Redscape this week in a game which Fuego should win fairly easily. In Week 15, Fuego closes it's Zeta slate against Chinese; I have to take Fuego here, but the Chinese have a bunch of talent and are currently fighting for their playoff lives, so this one will be pretty tight! The Alpha draw has Fuego at home against Manilla at home, and Fuego should have no troubles against the Gorillaz. 3-0 looks likely to end the schedule, assuming solid work from Fuego down the stretch.
Predicted finish: 11-5, 6th
7. Uluru Rockies: 7th, 8-5
Welcome to the playoffs for the first time, Rockies! You did what you had to, "upsetting" Coney Island by a convincing 37-20 score. This takes some of the luster off the game against Cimmerian this week, but I still think the Rockies will get to 9 wins after this contest. The last Zeta game is at Tonga in Week 15, and I cannot favor Uluru, but if Tonga drops one to the Horsemen this week, this one could get mighty interesting! However, the Alpha draw is BRUTAL, as they have to go to a Molokai team who's the prohibitive favority in Alpha; no upset here, methinks. 1-2 looks like the finish here, but the playoff spot's clinched, so it's not as consequential now.
Predicted finish: 9-7, 7th
8. Chinese Bandits: 8th, 6-7
This week's game of "Musical Chairs" for the 8th playoff spot has ended, and now the Chinese are in the seat after thumping Redscape 42-17. This week, Chinese rides into Mauna Kea for a HUGE, and I do mean HUGE, face-off; the winner of this game has the driver's seat to a playoff game, while the loser has likely dug themselves too deep a hole to climb from. Likewise, the next week features a big game at Fuego, and I think the Chinese can't be favored to win; however, the Chinese certainly have the talent to do it, and 2-in-a-row now would likely lock them into the playoffs. The Bandits' Alpha matchup sees them playing at a solid Easter Island squad; Easter Island should be favored over the Chinese here. The 6-point win over Coney Island is huge now, but the 11-point loss to Cimmerian negates that. The way it shakes out now, as crazy as it sounds, a 7-9 team will likely make the postseason. Frankly, if you see the top of the page, I think it'll be the Chinese; going 3-0 against like competition never hurt anyone!
Predicted finish: 7-9, 8th
9. Mauna Kea Chenabogs: 9th, 6-7
What a difference two weeks makes! The Chenabogs have went from barely being included in this prediction to statistically tied for the final playoff spot, thanks to a 38-7 win over fledgling Asau. However, this week's game is against a Chinese team that also has a 6-7 record, and I just don't think the Chenabogs have the guns to do it; however, never sleep on the team that's peaking at the right time. The Zeta finale is against the Zeta conference leader, Bikini Atoll, and I'm almost certain the Chenabogs don't have the strength to withstand this one. However, the Alpha draw is quite favorable, as the Chenabogs travel to play a down-on-its-luck Vanuatu squad, and Mauna Kea will definitely be favored in this contest. The 4-point loss to Cimmerian earlier this season is crushing with these playoff standings as garbled as they are. Win against Chinese, you're probably in; lose, you're almost certainly not.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 10th
10. Coney Island Warriors: 10th, 5-8
Dropping 4 straight is never good. Dropping your 4th straight against an opponent you almost HAD to beat to claim a playoff spot is even worse, but that's what happened in that 37-20 loss. However, the Warriors should snap that streak this week as they travel to Dirty South to play a game that really should be a near-lock. After that, the Warriors finish their Zeta slate against Christchurch; now, in all likelihood, they have to win this one to slide into the playoffs, and if they can't beat Uluru, I can't possibly see them beating an overwhelming Christchurch squad. However, the all-important Alpha draw was very sweet to the Warriors, as they face a weak Somoa squad in a game that is just about a near-lock for them. The "Cardiac Kids" didn't have enough heart (yes, bad pun) to beat Uluru, and now they need a pulse-stopping (yes, another) game against the Knightmares, and I think the clock's run out on them.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 9th
11. Cimmerian Barbarians: 11th, 5-8
Cimmerian dropped their third straight this week, absolutely getting pummeled by the Horsemen, 45-0. This week's game at Uluru is HUGE for Cimmerian; an upset means they can parlay momentum into a playoff bid, while a loss means that they're pretty much banished from this poll. The Week 15 Zeta finale against the relegation-bound Dirty South team should pose absolutely no problems in this near-lock. Incredibly, the Barbarians have a near-lock the following week as well, against a vastly inferior Origrammar squad. As low as they are in the rankings right now, they have the BEST shot to run the table and get into the playoffs. I still say 2-1, but hey, upset Uluru, and they get in by the enamel on their teeth.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 11th
------------------------------------------------------------
As always, I truly do thank you for the kind compliments; they really mean a lot to me, and they really help inspire me to get these editions out late on the night before games. I apologize to Alpha, but I'm just not going to be able to do them this season for you all; I just don't have enough time in the day. Again, as always, I mean no disrespect to any team, for I call the games as I think they're going to roll. Good luck in Week 14, everyone, and I'll have a new batch out come Friday night!
Last edited Aug 28, 2008 11:36:55
