First off, all the team stats are copy/pasted into a spreadsheet and sorted. Then I fill out a matrix to identify which teams have played one another and which team won. Then all this is passed to the first set of matrices which calculates various things about your opponents and basically creates a bunch of averages. This is where I figure out how good your opponents are.
The data from these matrices are passed to a common sheet for all the data I am interested in. A few more things are calculated here (percentages). After this, data is passed to the second set of matrices which simulate out various parts of the season. Things like how many yards you would gain or points allowed. The setup is based on this league projector: http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=447611
The third set of matrices brings everything together and does a comparative analysis to determine who would win a head to head matchup if everyone played all 31 other teams. It then reports to a matrix similar to the one I use to input who won or lost. I then have this matrix dump the wins, losses, and ties into the common sheet. The team with the most wins gets the highest power rank and so on down.
What is taken into account in the determination of who won or lost is this:
-predicted points scored and allowed
-how likely you are to win based on record quality (i.e. who is more likely to beat good teams and not lose to bad ones)
-predicted yards gained and allowed
-predicted amount of turnovers for and against
This is the formula so far
Your points = (average points per game)*percent chance of win based on record + the points you are predicted to score + predicted yards / league average yards per point + predicted turnover ratio x 3
Your opponent gets the same formula. The team with the higher number of points wins that game.
I also put offense and defense ranks on there. Right now they are based on the predicted number of yards.
O=Overall (predicted yards)
P=Pass (predicted yards)
R=Rush (predicted yards)
If you are interested in using this spreadsheet head here:
http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=791249
=================================================================================================
Week 6 (Version 0.20 used)
Rank ..... Prv …… Offense ............ Defense ...... Team
................................ O/P/R .................. O/P/R
Lion
... 01 ...... 03 ..... 03 / 01 / 09 ......... 03 / 12 / 01 .... Tuscaloosa Bulls
... 02 ...... 02 ..... 07 / 06 / 12 ......... 01 / 01 / 02 .... Bombali Brown-Browns
... 03 ...... 04 ..... 01 / 11 / 01 ......... 05 / 15 / 03 .... Uganda Headhunters
... 06 ...... 08 ..... 15 / 28 / 05 ......... 09 / 20 / 06 .... Gambia Diamond Cutters
... 08 ...... 06 ..... 05 / 09 / 07 ......... 14 / 25 / 10 .... Seychelles Island Sea Wolves
... 11 ...... 12 ..... 10 / 12 / 08 ......... 02 / 02 / 08 .... Kalahari ThunderLizards
... 12 ...... 13 ..... 13 / 08 / 16 ......... 13 / 11 / 16 .... Kenya Naturals
... 15 ...... 17 ..... 09 / 03 / 21 ......... 19 / 31 / 09 .... StingTalk Yellow Jackets
... 16 ...... 13 ..... 20 / 22 / 17 ......... 06 / 07 / 11 .... Gabon Forest Dragons
... 19 ...... 15 ..... 12 / 23 / 04 ......... 23 / 23 / 19 .... Ivory Coast Long Dongs
... 22 ...... 23 ..... 24 / 16 / 26 ......... 20 / 19 / 24 .... Equatorial Guinea Flames
... 24 ...... 24 ..... 21 / 15 / 25 ......... 25 / 09 / 25 .... Eritrea Evarcha culicivora
... 25 ...... 21 ..... 19 / 17 / 18 ......... 28 / 29 / 26 .... West Nile Virus
... 28 ...... 29 ..... 22 / 21 / 24 ......... 31 / 08 / 32 .... Madagascar Horn Farm
... 31 ...... 30 ..... 31 / 30 / 30 ......... 30 / 26 / 30 .... Nile River Rush
... 32 ...... 32 ..... 32 / 32 / 32 ......... 32 / 32 / 31 .... Pretoria Dingoneks
Elephant
... 04 ...... 05 ..... 06 / 14 / 06 ......... 07 / 18 / 05 .... Kibwezi Choppaholix
... 05 ...... 07 ..... 04 / 02 / 14 ......... 04 / 04 / 07 .... Transatlantic Fear
... 07 ...... 01 ..... 02 / 05 / 02 ......... 16 / 30 / 04 .... Central African Wild Dogs
... 09 ...... 11 ..... 17 / 26 / 11 ......... 12 / 05 / 21 .... Tanzanian Terror
... 10 ...... 10 ..... 14 / 20 / 10 ......... 10 / 10 / 15 .... Krakow Tigers
... 12 ...... 09 ..... 08 / 07 / 13 ......... 08 / 06 / 13 .... Chicago Killer Frogs
... 12 ...... 16 ..... 18 / 31 / 03 ......... 11 / 13 / 14 .... Kilimanjaro Sno-Caps
... 17 ...... 17 ..... 25 / 25 / 19 ......... 15 / 21 / 12 .... Tunis Asps
... 18 ...... 19 ..... 11 / 04 / 20 ......... 17 / 14 / 23 .... Namibia Piranhas
... 20 ...... 26 ..... 27 / 27 / 22 ......... 21 / 22 / 17 .... Lacashire Wolverines Colts
... 21 ...... 20 ..... 16 / 19 / 15 ......... 22 / 27 / 18 .... Casablanca Sultans
... 23 ...... 22 ..... 29 / 29 / 23 ......... 24 / 24 / 20 .... Ghana Billy Goats
... 26 ...... 25 ..... 28 / 18 / 29 ......... 18 / 16 / 22 .... Sahara Spartans
... 27 ...... 27 ..... 23 / 13 / 27 ......... 27 / 17 / 28 .... Gotham City Jokers
... 29 ...... 28 ..... 26 / 10 / 31 ......... 26 / 03 / 29 .... Swaziland Southern Brown Mambas
... 30 ...... 31 ..... 30 / 24 / 28 ......... 29 / 28 / 27 .... North Afrika Korps Desert Foxes
The data from these matrices are passed to a common sheet for all the data I am interested in. A few more things are calculated here (percentages). After this, data is passed to the second set of matrices which simulate out various parts of the season. Things like how many yards you would gain or points allowed. The setup is based on this league projector: http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=447611
The third set of matrices brings everything together and does a comparative analysis to determine who would win a head to head matchup if everyone played all 31 other teams. It then reports to a matrix similar to the one I use to input who won or lost. I then have this matrix dump the wins, losses, and ties into the common sheet. The team with the most wins gets the highest power rank and so on down.
What is taken into account in the determination of who won or lost is this:
-predicted points scored and allowed
-how likely you are to win based on record quality (i.e. who is more likely to beat good teams and not lose to bad ones)
-predicted yards gained and allowed
-predicted amount of turnovers for and against
This is the formula so far
Your points = (average points per game)*percent chance of win based on record + the points you are predicted to score + predicted yards / league average yards per point + predicted turnover ratio x 3
Your opponent gets the same formula. The team with the higher number of points wins that game.
I also put offense and defense ranks on there. Right now they are based on the predicted number of yards.
O=Overall (predicted yards)
P=Pass (predicted yards)
R=Rush (predicted yards)
If you are interested in using this spreadsheet head here:
http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=791249
=================================================================================================
Week 6 (Version 0.20 used)
Rank ..... Prv …… Offense ............ Defense ...... Team
................................ O/P/R .................. O/P/R
Lion
... 01 ...... 03 ..... 03 / 01 / 09 ......... 03 / 12 / 01 .... Tuscaloosa Bulls
... 02 ...... 02 ..... 07 / 06 / 12 ......... 01 / 01 / 02 .... Bombali Brown-Browns
... 03 ...... 04 ..... 01 / 11 / 01 ......... 05 / 15 / 03 .... Uganda Headhunters
... 06 ...... 08 ..... 15 / 28 / 05 ......... 09 / 20 / 06 .... Gambia Diamond Cutters
... 08 ...... 06 ..... 05 / 09 / 07 ......... 14 / 25 / 10 .... Seychelles Island Sea Wolves
... 11 ...... 12 ..... 10 / 12 / 08 ......... 02 / 02 / 08 .... Kalahari ThunderLizards
... 12 ...... 13 ..... 13 / 08 / 16 ......... 13 / 11 / 16 .... Kenya Naturals
... 15 ...... 17 ..... 09 / 03 / 21 ......... 19 / 31 / 09 .... StingTalk Yellow Jackets
... 16 ...... 13 ..... 20 / 22 / 17 ......... 06 / 07 / 11 .... Gabon Forest Dragons
... 19 ...... 15 ..... 12 / 23 / 04 ......... 23 / 23 / 19 .... Ivory Coast Long Dongs
... 22 ...... 23 ..... 24 / 16 / 26 ......... 20 / 19 / 24 .... Equatorial Guinea Flames
... 24 ...... 24 ..... 21 / 15 / 25 ......... 25 / 09 / 25 .... Eritrea Evarcha culicivora
... 25 ...... 21 ..... 19 / 17 / 18 ......... 28 / 29 / 26 .... West Nile Virus
... 28 ...... 29 ..... 22 / 21 / 24 ......... 31 / 08 / 32 .... Madagascar Horn Farm
... 31 ...... 30 ..... 31 / 30 / 30 ......... 30 / 26 / 30 .... Nile River Rush
... 32 ...... 32 ..... 32 / 32 / 32 ......... 32 / 32 / 31 .... Pretoria Dingoneks
Elephant
... 04 ...... 05 ..... 06 / 14 / 06 ......... 07 / 18 / 05 .... Kibwezi Choppaholix
... 05 ...... 07 ..... 04 / 02 / 14 ......... 04 / 04 / 07 .... Transatlantic Fear
... 07 ...... 01 ..... 02 / 05 / 02 ......... 16 / 30 / 04 .... Central African Wild Dogs
... 09 ...... 11 ..... 17 / 26 / 11 ......... 12 / 05 / 21 .... Tanzanian Terror
... 10 ...... 10 ..... 14 / 20 / 10 ......... 10 / 10 / 15 .... Krakow Tigers
... 12 ...... 09 ..... 08 / 07 / 13 ......... 08 / 06 / 13 .... Chicago Killer Frogs
... 12 ...... 16 ..... 18 / 31 / 03 ......... 11 / 13 / 14 .... Kilimanjaro Sno-Caps
... 17 ...... 17 ..... 25 / 25 / 19 ......... 15 / 21 / 12 .... Tunis Asps
... 18 ...... 19 ..... 11 / 04 / 20 ......... 17 / 14 / 23 .... Namibia Piranhas
... 20 ...... 26 ..... 27 / 27 / 22 ......... 21 / 22 / 17 .... Lacashire Wolverines Colts
... 21 ...... 20 ..... 16 / 19 / 15 ......... 22 / 27 / 18 .... Casablanca Sultans
... 23 ...... 22 ..... 29 / 29 / 23 ......... 24 / 24 / 20 .... Ghana Billy Goats
... 26 ...... 25 ..... 28 / 18 / 29 ......... 18 / 16 / 22 .... Sahara Spartans
... 27 ...... 27 ..... 23 / 13 / 27 ......... 27 / 17 / 28 .... Gotham City Jokers
... 29 ...... 28 ..... 26 / 10 / 31 ......... 26 / 03 / 29 .... Swaziland Southern Brown Mambas
... 30 ...... 31 ..... 30 / 24 / 28 ......... 29 / 28 / 27 .... North Afrika Korps Desert Foxes
Last edited Aug 13, 2008 17:02:11
