Well, they're back. Last season's wildly popular (...and startlingly accurate) playoff prediction thread from yours truly, Oceania's resident loud mouthed asshole, (http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=291509 ) is back for another go round.
So without further ado...
Alpha
1. Brantford-- 16-0; 7-0 vs. Playoff teams. 5 Quality Wins*. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +11.29 points.
2. Fiji-- 14-2; 5-2 vs. Playoff teams. 2 Quality Wins, 1 Possible Fluke Loss**. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +5.14 points.
3. Newcastle-- 13-3; 5-3 vs. Playoff teams. 2 Quality Wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +1 point.
4. New England-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. Playoff teams. 3 quality wins, 1 Possible Fluke Loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +2.375 points.
5. Canberra-- 11-5; 3-5 vs. playoff teams. 3 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.25 points.
6. Emerald City-- 10-6; 2-6 vs. playoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -6.375 points.
7. West Scranton-- 10-6; 3-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.57 points.
8. Brisbane-- 8-8; 2-5 vs. plaoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was - 6 points.
Round 1:
Brantford over Brisbane (99.9% confidence level)
New England over Canberra (21% confidence level)
Fiji over West Scranton (95 % confidence level)
Emerald City over Newcastle (34% confidence level)
Round 2:
Brantford over New England (60% confidence level)
Fiji over Emerald City (88% confidence level)
Conference Final:
Brantford over Fiji (41% confidence level)
Zeta:
1. FFLW-- 16-0; 7-0 vs playoff teams. 7 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 27.28 points.
2. FFlivewire-- 14-2; 5-2 vs. playoff teams; 5 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 8.42 points.
3. Rawle Tech-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +1 point.
4. Tongan-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 1.5 points.
5. IC-- 11-5; 3-5 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was - 6.25 points.
6. Brisbane-- 11-5; 4-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -7.25 points.
7. The U-- 11-5; 3-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 2 possible fluke losses. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -9.57 points.
8. Las Vegas-- 10-6; 1-6 vs. playoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -19.71 points.
Round 1:
FFLW over Las Vegas (99.999% confidence level)
Tongan over IC (75% confidence level)
The U Canes over FFLivewire (71% confidence level)
Brisbane over Rawle Tech (12% confidence level)
Round 2:
FFLW over Tongan (81% confidence level)
The U Canes over Brisbane (41% confidence level)
Conference final: FFLW over The U (41% confidence level)
PRO FINAL:
FFLW over Brantford (21% confidence level)
*Quality wins are defined as wins by more than one possession over teams that have a winning percentage of .667 or better.
**Possible Fluke Losses are defined as losses by a fiend goal or less.
* % Confidence level is NOT the same as odds of winning, it is the confidence of the statement. It is the same as the level of confidence you would get from using the three sigma rule on a normal distribution.
So without further ado...
Alpha
1. Brantford-- 16-0; 7-0 vs. Playoff teams. 5 Quality Wins*. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +11.29 points.
2. Fiji-- 14-2; 5-2 vs. Playoff teams. 2 Quality Wins, 1 Possible Fluke Loss**. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +5.14 points.
3. Newcastle-- 13-3; 5-3 vs. Playoff teams. 2 Quality Wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +1 point.
4. New England-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. Playoff teams. 3 quality wins, 1 Possible Fluke Loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +2.375 points.
5. Canberra-- 11-5; 3-5 vs. playoff teams. 3 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.25 points.
6. Emerald City-- 10-6; 2-6 vs. playoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -6.375 points.
7. West Scranton-- 10-6; 3-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.57 points.
8. Brisbane-- 8-8; 2-5 vs. plaoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was - 6 points.
Round 1:
Brantford over Brisbane (99.9% confidence level)
New England over Canberra (21% confidence level)
Fiji over West Scranton (95 % confidence level)
Emerald City over Newcastle (34% confidence level)
Round 2:
Brantford over New England (60% confidence level)
Fiji over Emerald City (88% confidence level)
Conference Final:
Brantford over Fiji (41% confidence level)
Zeta:
1. FFLW-- 16-0; 7-0 vs playoff teams. 7 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 27.28 points.
2. FFlivewire-- 14-2; 5-2 vs. playoff teams; 5 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 8.42 points.
3. Rawle Tech-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +1 point.
4. Tongan-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 1.5 points.
5. IC-- 11-5; 3-5 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was - 6.25 points.
6. Brisbane-- 11-5; 4-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -7.25 points.
7. The U-- 11-5; 3-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 2 possible fluke losses. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -9.57 points.
8. Las Vegas-- 10-6; 1-6 vs. playoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -19.71 points.
Round 1:
FFLW over Las Vegas (99.999% confidence level)
Tongan over IC (75% confidence level)
The U Canes over FFLivewire (71% confidence level)
Brisbane over Rawle Tech (12% confidence level)
Round 2:
FFLW over Tongan (81% confidence level)
The U Canes over Brisbane (41% confidence level)
Conference final: FFLW over The U (41% confidence level)
PRO FINAL:
FFLW over Brantford (21% confidence level)
*Quality wins are defined as wins by more than one possession over teams that have a winning percentage of .667 or better.
**Possible Fluke Losses are defined as losses by a fiend goal or less.
* % Confidence level is NOT the same as odds of winning, it is the confidence of the statement. It is the same as the level of confidence you would get from using the three sigma rule on a normal distribution.
Last edited Jul 14, 2008 09:49:15