Warrior General Games

Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk 16 games (AND final rating for non-playoff teams)...

FFLW Caninites Zeta 243.74
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 205.85
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 201.87
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 142.82
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 142.46
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 120.72
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 119.01
New England Burning Pride Alpha 111.90
Canberra Strike Alpha 97.21
IC Incinerators Zeta 91.44
The U Canes Zeta 90.39
Brisbane Gods Zeta 81.00
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 58.12
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 55.86
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 53.51
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 15.27
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 7.26
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha -8.80
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -14.89
Tasmania Devils Alpha -15.53
Big Island Growas Zeta -16.05
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -58.69
Perth Scorpions Alpha -86.04
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -121.32
Saipan Fighters Zeta -126.35
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -131.79
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -153.09
Auckland Flames Alpha -157.94
Outback Astronauts Zeta -188.13
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -200.76
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -239.18
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -313.78

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Predicted Win Probabilities (prorated +56.67 elo for home team) for upcoming wk 17 playoff games based on Elo data...

Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.806
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.801
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.725
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.698
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.696
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.635
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.619
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.601
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.399
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.381
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.365
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.304
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.302
The U Canes Zeta 0.275
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.199
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.194


note: Teams > 0.640 predicted win probability can be said to be 'greatly favored' in predicted win probability.

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Upcoming playoff Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:


Canberra Strike (11-5-0) at *New England Burning Pride (12-4-0) [game rating: 194.43]

IC Incinerators (11-5-0) at *Tongan Crimson Auha (12-4-0) [game rating: 182.88]


* - Favored by predicted win probability
*** - Greatly favored by predicted win probability

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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 16 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.

notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].

Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.

NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.

Both games certainly worthy of the game of the week status on paper.

Good luck to those in the playoffs, and chin up to those that just missed out.

*Runs to a farm and starts shooting horses*

I like a formula that has us ranked behind both teams we beat in the past 2 games...

lol

Can someone tell me what the hell is an "elo" ranking? I think I prefer ballsac's predictions, this just seems like nerd data. Man this forum has gotten soft as hell.

Originally posted by Vilita
I like a formula that has us ranked behind both teams we beat in the past 2 games...

lol

And you're ahead of two teams you lost to; what's your point? It's impossible to build a ranking system without having anyone be below a team that they beat.

Originally posted by BradyFTW
Originally posted by Vilita

I like a formula that has us ranked behind both teams we beat in the past 2 games...

lol

And you're ahead of two teams you lost to; what's your point? It's impossible to build a ranking system without having anyone be below a team that they beat.

But not teams we lost to in the past 2 games

Originally posted by badkarma
Can someone tell me what the hell is an "elo" ranking? I think I prefer ballsac's predictions, this just seems like nerd data. Man this forum has gotten soft as hell.

FYI genius, there is a link in his post to the formula and how the nerd data is calculated. I also like "ballsac's" rankings but they are also numbers based. This is just a more widely accepted formula. It's ok, we understand numbers can be confusing to some people, we won't hold it against you.

lol...ballsac

Originally posted by kevins4484
lol...ballsac

yep, I have one of those...

...(and it has balls in it, too...)

Originally posted by badkarma
Can someone tell me what the hell is an "elo" ranking?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTjy_LW8DGM


dunno:

Originally posted by iowastylee


FYI genius, there is a link in his post to the formula and how the nerd data is calculated. I also like "ballsac's" rankings but they are also numbers based. This is just a more widely accepted formula. It's ok, we understand numbers can be confusing to some people, we won't hold it against you.

Just sayin these forums went to shit when people stopped talking football and started talking about calculations.

You may not understand the difference but the people without pocket protectors will.

Originally posted by badkarma
Originally posted by iowastylee



FYI genius, there is a link in his post to the formula and how the nerd data is calculated. I also like "ballsac's" rankings but they are also numbers based. This is just a more widely accepted formula. It's ok, we understand numbers can be confusing to some people, we won't hold it against you.

Just sayin these forums went to shit when people stopped talking football and started talking about calculations.

You may not understand the difference but the people without pocket protectors will.

I should use a pocket protector, I just got a pen stain on my damn lab coat. Anyway, I can talk football with the best of them, but I still like a ranking system that is based on numbers rather than personal opinion. If you can make a ranking system with all of your "football knowledge" and by looking at little dots running around your screen then feel free...I'm waiting.

Originally posted by badkarma
Originally posted by iowastylee



FYI genius, there is a link in his post to the formula and how the nerd data is calculated. I also like "ballsac's" rankings but they are also numbers based. This is just a more widely accepted formula. It's ok, we understand numbers can be confusing to some people, we won't hold it against you.

Just sayin these forums went to shit when people stopped talking football and started talking about calculations.

You may not understand the difference but the people without pocket protectors will.

You do realize that we're playing a simulator, right? This game is basically a series of calculations

Originally posted by BradyFTW
Originally posted by badkarma

Originally posted by iowastylee




FYI genius, there is a link in his post to the formula and how the nerd data is calculated. I also like "ballsac's" rankings but they are also numbers based. This is just a more widely accepted formula. It's ok, we understand numbers can be confusing to some people, we won't hold it against you.

Just sayin these forums went to shit when people stopped talking football and started talking about calculations.

You may not understand the difference but the people without pocket protectors will.

You do realize that we're playing a simulator, right? This game is basically a series of calculations

Don't crush his hopes and dreams...