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Forum > USA A Leagues > USA A #6 > The Playoff Outlook
kurieg
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First, I will give an in depth overview of where the contentions are going into the final week, and who appears to have the inside track (based on matchup difficulty). Note that the Spreadsheet predictor is completely useless for cross-conference games, and I won't bother posting it.

The East -
The #1 and #2 seeds are locked up at this point, with the Wolfpack whipping everyone for #1, and the Slashers owning the tiebreaker over Memphis. The action begins at #3 and #4. Memphis plays an unpredictable and rebouding Spokane Dreem, while the Fury have an apparently easier matchup (No offense, for all I know the West is way better than the East ). Since the Fury own the tiebreaker here, the #3 and #4 spots could easily flip.

#5, 6, and 7 are completely up in the air. However, Philadelphia has a MUCH nastier game against the defensive powerhouse San Diego, while Sconnie and New Orleans have more manageable looking games. If Phillie loses, then they have the risk of falling behind PTT (if PTT beats Death Valley) and settling in the 8th spot. Finally, if PTT loses and Buffalo wins, PTT is out of the playoffs, and Buffalo is #8. Given the relative difficulty of their final matchup, I think this is quite possible.

Here's my final predicted matchup, with a W or L to indicate a win or loss in Week 16.

1. Wolfpack 16-0 W
2. Slashers 13-3 L (have no idea, just being humble, plus the Horde need this more)
3. Memphis 13-3 W (tough game but I think they win)
4. Fury 12-4 W
5. New Orleans 11-5 W
6. Sconnie 11-5 W
7. Philadelphia 10-6 L
8. Buffalo 9-7 W

Obviously, I'm saying PTT loses to Death Valley. From a really rough glance, I believe Death Valley has the type of game to give PTT problems. Really big game, though.


The West -
Richey obviously is #1, but 2-7 are all within a couple games. However, IMO there are much less interesting cross-conference matchups overall. The tough ones are San Diego vs Philly, Death Valley vs. PTT, and Barbarian vs. Slashers. Maybe I'm being humble, but I smell a West sweep here.

Finally, for the #8 spot, I sense a 7-9 3-way tie, as I expect Cleveland and Oklahoma to lose, but Denver to beat New England. This ends up a triangle, as Denver beat Cleveland who beat Oklahoma City who beat Denver. Next tiebreaker is total points scored, which should easily put Oklahoma in the playoffs. Currently, it's 392 (Ok), 285 (Cl), 261 (De).

Final predicted standings -
1. Richey 16-0 W
2. San Diego 13-3 W
3. Huskers 13-3 W
4. Mentone 12-4 W
5. Chicago 12-4 W
6. Death Valley 11-5 W
7. Barbarian 11-5 W
8. Oklahoma City 7-9 L


That's my guess! Should be a very interesting sim in a couple days!
 
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Seems well thoguht out for the West, I agree.
 
morid
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I would like to say.... Even though you are being humble and we don't need to win, we are gonna play to win. I think it will be a good matchup but The Slashers end 14-2 on the season!
 
Meldlm
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Good writeup!
 
mpowell
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Good writeup. So anyone prepared to make playoff predictions? Or shall we wait until the brackets are finalized on Sunday?
 
canes30
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I know that I am afraid to play the Horde. I hope that nothing crazy happens to match us up against them.

Good work on the write up, you really must have taken some time.
 
Turner3233
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Great work.

I am glad we are not in that 2-3 spot in the west. I wouldn't want the Horde or the Grave Diggers in week one. Hell, I don't want the Strikers either. They beat us pretty good last year.
 
opspearhead
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Crazy things happen in the playoffs. You can pretty much throw the seeds out the window. I will say that the obvious favorites in the West are Richey and the boosting Horde. It doesn't help much to be a favorite in such a competitive league though.
 
titanicwin
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I hope the Dream bring their "A" game and smash Memphis - moving us to the #3 spot. That being said, I think they have an easier matchup. The Elves aren't exactly pushovers, and they are fighting for a playoff spot (unlike the Dream). I am very unsure about this matchup.
 
Painmaker
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Very insightful and reasonable writeup. The PTT-Death Valley matchup should be interesting. I'm rooting for the Fury to move up to #3 as well - Memphis and New Orleans are both solid teams but Tennessee looks to have the perfect defense for stopping the Wolfpack attack.
 
kurieg
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Originally posted by mpowell
Good writeup. So anyone prepared to make playoff predictions? Or shall we wait until the brackets are finalized on Sunday?


I'd wait until the brackets! The odds of me getting all the games right is pretty damn small, and aside from #1-2 in the East and #1 in the West, everything could move.


Also, thanks for the kind words! I noticed the possible 3-way tie in the West and that got me interested in the possible outcomes. Since I had that Projectathron spreadsheet, I had good info readily available.

Good luck to everyone in Week 16 (except the Horde )!
Last edited Jul 11, 2008 19:52:34
 
WiSeIVIaN
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Originally posted by Turner3233
Great work.

I am glad we are not in that 2-3 spot in the west. I wouldn't want the Horde or the Grave Diggers in week one. Hell, I don't want the Strikers either. They beat us pretty good last year.


I appologize for you not being able to play the hedgehogs, the only 5-8 seed you want to play, lol.
 
AirMcMVP
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Originally posted by Painmaker
Very insightful and reasonable writeup. The PTT-Death Valley matchup should be interesting. I'm rooting for the Fury to move up to #3 as well - Memphis and New Orleans are both solid teams but Tennessee looks to have the perfect defense for stopping the Wolfpack attack.


I take THAT as the ultimate compliment.

We have done some major retooling since our last matchup. We'll just have to see how well things work out.
 
Painmaker
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Good luck to everyone still fighting toward the championship today. No 'gimmes' left at this level and whoever makes it from this group will be an instant power in AA3 (just like last season's conference champs).

Fury, remember to play on 'relaxed' so you won't be worn out for the next game!
 
AirMcMVP
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Originally posted by Painmaker
Good luck to everyone still fighting toward the championship today. No 'gimmes' left at this level and whoever makes it from this group will be an instant power in AA3 (just like last season's conference champs).

Fury, remember to play on 'relaxed' so you won't be worn out for the next game!


Yeah, and make sure your kicker gets lots of time at QB...oh wait, you do that already.
 


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