User Pass
Home Sign Up Contact Log In
Forum > Season 14 Leagues (Dog Breeds) > Dachshund League > Dachshund Too-early Predictions
Page:
 
GoGetta
offline
Link
 
We are one of the two craziest leagues in the game .Hydrogen had a combined 228 wins last year, but more variance from first to last, whereas we had 212 with less variance. The least amount of wins any team in our league had last year was 13 (.433%). Top quality competition, completely re-hauled playbooks, unpredictable weather, lots of forum personalities... This league is going to freakin' rock. So let's take a moment to consider the merger and learn about the teams.

Alpha Division

Only one dachshund team returns here, and they weren't even part of the division last season. Originally moved from Gamma to separate the human controlled teams, they now share the division with three Labrador teams.

LUElinks LUEshis are a superstar team. Literally. Thirteen superstars is the most I've ever seen on one team. Meticulously budgeted since it's inception, Mysterio shows that you don't have to be led by a star to win (only surrounded). Orange Soda is the reigning MVP of both the league and hall of fame, and these guys have the capacity to score more points in a game than anyone else in the tier when they're clicking.

Southside Rebels are the holder of the silver ladder trophy in back to back seasons. Really impressive one-two punch from the coaching staff (Dredgar on D, Sov on O) and it shows. Pretty well balanced (56% Pass) with the personnel to back it up, they finished with the 2nd best defense and 4th best offense last season. Struggled with upper tier teams last season (1-5 record) but competed admirably, even losing a couple by one score.

PAIN NATION MIDGETS are the heaviest passing team in the tier. We're looking at an 84% clip, and threw for more than 2000 yards else than anyone in the tier last season. However, it wasn't at an efficient rate (51%) and led to some very poor stat differentials in points/yards. Why? Look no further than the defense. 4th worst total defense in the league last season, combined with being on the field more due to passing as opposed to running, and it culminated into a disappointing 3-11 league record (with a surprising 10-6 ladder, dunno about that one.) Big kudos to Stepside89 here, as he managed to overhaul the defense, adding 3 superstars, and an extra star OT to help with pass protection. They'll be trending up in the future, but chemistry hit might put them in a bind early.

New Jersey Generals are one of the only premiere run teams left, and (fun fact!) the only team to not have a single yard passing last season. Have one of the top offenses in the tier (top five) but it feels a bit bloated. They really did a number on weaker teams, but were a bit pedestrian on playoff-caliber ones. I can see the changes to the weather benefiting a team like NJ, but I think the buff to the passing game hurts them in the sense that everyone else's playbook can evolve more. A couple things going New Jerseys way: roster retention is 100% so no early snags, and having the whole team ran by one (or two, heh) guys, I think there's more potential for builds to complement and synergize with each other. Bdnannac's dot building capabilities will be on full display here this season.

Prediction

Southside is business as usual, taking the division, although LUELinks does not make it easy for them. Luelinks game will have more success in higher tiers, but their lack of balance will cause them to drop a game or two to knock them out of the division lead.


More after the break...
Edited by GoGetta on Mar 23, 2016 00:56:39
Edited by GoGetta on Mar 23, 2016 00:55:57
 
GoGetta
offline
Link
 
Beta Division

What little is left of Dachshund is mostly found here. It went from the only division of any interest in the league to the least competitive. I should probably phrase that a little differently. It's the least top-heavy of the divisions would probably be more appropriate. Deez Nuts, the Super Villains, and Enterprise return from Dachshund, and Jarvis Street Coffee Squirrels join them from Labrador.

Deez Nuts, man, where to start. They are one of the original Dachshund groups, only one of three remaining. What do the three have in common? They're the most successful. Nuts have made it to the championship three times running, but unfortunately weren't able to seal the deal (90s Bills anyone?) To date, they've always hovered towards the top of the tier, but have been right outside the door here, too (6th, 12th, and 10th placement in the ladder, seasoned/soph/rookie). Is this the season they step into the party? Personnel wise, there wasn't anything too loud, but they did really improve the receiving core, and picked up players on the defense from some solid agents. Milehigh was kind enough to let me look in on his team/forums this offseason (nobody tell him I'm still a coach) and from what I could gather, some really quality scout write-ups. Very analytical, well written, revealing write-ups. I fully expect a team like them to be able to take advantage of the passing sim changes.

Enterprise Seminoles are, well, have you guys ever heard of a man named Roy Sullivan? He was a park ranger who was struck by lightning seven times (ironically died of suicide). That's basically Enterprise. In three seasons they've been in a tie for 4th place at the end of the season. In 4 seasons they failed to make the playoffs. Their stats on both sides of the ball last season reflect a mid-to-lower 2nd tier team. They made a big score this offseason though, picking up Big Naked Willie, the stud (heh) QB from the late Phoenix Undead. Superstar QBs never hurt. Also acquired a S* DT but he's a pass rush specialist, and won't be seen on the field vs. several teams in the league. Very effective pass rush build though, and they'll need that against Deez. Both teams covered in this division have bad streaks, let's see who breaks it first!

Super Villians Strike Back My man GE. Interesting team, very interesting. Let's start with the negative. That offense has done him no favors in three seasons time. It's a bit too broad of a scope. If you explained the concept of the offense to someone in real life, it would make some sense. But unfortunately it doesn't translate to the simulation. He's looking into reviving the goal line offense, so be on the lookout for that. The positive, is that defense is really built solidly. GE jumped on the zone wagon before most anyone else, and (after taking a sabbatical until they fixed it) it is finally paying dividends. Vader's the force (see what I did there?) that keeps this defense in motion, and to date is the only player that I've ever watched get three interceptions in a game (against me, thanks a lot.) I don't necessarily agree with him on certain statistics/builds, but got to give credit where it's due,they are working and this defense has a load of potential. Keep an eye out, GE is going to show you his dark side this season.

Jarvis Street Coffee Squirrels have the most adorable logo. This team began above average in rookie, before shooting way up in sophomore to a ladder trophy spot, then tumbled back down a ways last season. A few decent wins, but nothing real impressive. Why the regression? Looking into it, I don't see any real turnover from sophomore to seasoned, doesn't appear like they lost any superstars or anything. My postulation is they overperformed during rookie (due to great playcalling and coordination) but the lack of talent in the defensive department is catching up to them. I see a star strong safety, but I don't see anybody particularly speedy/blitz happy in the linebackers (I'm pegging the fast one to be around 72-75 speed). Even though they played up sophomore year, I think they did play down from their abilities this season, and the good news is they've got a guy that got the most out of them once, so it could happen again. They're in the division to do it. And they've retained their entire roster (save one inactive). Winning the early games will be a key for them to have a successful run at the division.


Prediction

Deez Nuts wins the division. Probably tying Enterprise. Both streaks continue?

Edited by GoGetta on Mar 23, 2016 01:47:27
Edited by GoGetta on Mar 23, 2016 01:47:04
 
GoGetta
offline
Link
 
Well, you guys are all going to get a head start on me testing the new receiver progressions. This is taking a lot more time than I originally planned. The positive, I'm currently incapable of going to school/work/even grocery shoppping right now, so I have a lot more time for GLB and GLB-related activities. Hopefully you all aren't sick of me yet.

Moving on to the last division!

Gamma Division

The last division of Dachshund. The one returning team (original Dachshund along with Deez and LUE) being the Urban Achievers. LUELinks was moved out under the consideration of too many superstars in one division. Joining in is a vicious slate of teams. The highly decorated Kentucky Mountaineers, the balanced and sound Niagara Rapids, and a very true wildcard in Kapitol Killers.

Little Lebowski Urban Achievers
Kings of Dachshund since the beginning, LLUA has won 3 straight league championships, and 47 out of 48 interdivision matchups (the lone loss being to a high quality LUELinks). This team has star power galore, and is scary balanced. Led by Trogdor the Burninator on offense (100 speed 89 conditioning power back) and Bear Jew on defense (8th in the entire hall of fame at the seasoned tier). Picked up an extra star on the offensive line, look for them to be less balanced this season to take advantage of a 10 ypc running game.

Kentucky Mountaineers LLUA is heavy in the hardware section, but Kentucky isn't far behind. You could make the argument that their path to their championships path was harder, too. Perennial ladder threats and 2x league champs, these guys are some of the best. The defense is the crème de la crème of the tier, and is just so far ahead of everyone, about 8% ahead in yardage and 31% in points allowed. Might be the best unit (offensive or defensive) in the tier. It's more impressive considering their offense played a bit uninspired this year. Looking over the data, it appears they're more of a TOP offense, grinding it out rather that looking for a shootout. It's worked well for them, and they snagged a few intertier wins (including an 18 win pro team) and held a notorious power running journeyman team to 45 (they scored 45 or more in 75% of their games). We're gonna have some solid unstoppable force vs. immovable object matchups here for some time to come. Plus Myrik's a freakin' wrestler and a hell of a nice guy. How cool is that?

Niagara Rapids are a team predominantly ran by one guy, Sabresfan61 (he also has a nice logo/avatar), and is a team that doesn't rely on a terrible amount of starpower. Looking over the stats, they appear to be Kentucky-lite. Another offense that controls ToP (4th best last season, 2 spots ahead of Kentucky) and a stout, seventh ranked defense. They have the lowest POSITIVE point differential, which should mean they are in close games often (5-5 record in games decided by 10 points or less). They're currently a comfortable 2nd tier team, taking care of some business in upper tiers last season but not pulling out any wins from the top dogs in seasoned. I'm expecting and hoping to see a lot of Jason Vaccaro this season. 69.6% on his receptions last season is reaaally impressive (only 6.7% drop rate) and with the ability to funnel the offense through the tight end this season, this guy could cause that offense to outperform expectations. His brother Joe is the one throwing him the ball, and he's got some numbers too. There's gonna be a lot of brotherly love to go around. Need to jump-start the running game; Ford Callaway is only averaging 4 YPC as a superstar, which seems like a combination of being a powerback without speed (slower to develop) and playcalling.

Kapitol Killers are a team I'm irrationally excited about. They lose some boneheaded games they shouldn't, but unlike a lot of other solid teams, these guys compete against the highest level opponents. They beat both Southside and Los Alamos, and competed HARD with Kentucky and Southside in earlier games. It's like in Madden or fantasy football: you like guys with potential and high ceilings rather than low floor what-you-see-is-what-you-get players. Ultimately, these guys do have an apparent ceiling (one superstar won't work forever) but the coaching has taken them pretty far. Love to have them in this league, as there's a ton of games where they can really ruin people's days.

Prediction:

LLUA wins Gamma division for the fourth time. Kentucky finishes one game behind and grabs the wild card.
Edited by GoGetta on Mar 23, 2016 02:47:22
 
GoGetta
offline
Link
 
Playoffs

(1)Southside vs (4) Kentucky

Tough call, these guys are 2-2 vs. each other historically. Southside has the latest win, and I give them the slight edge.

(2) LLUA vs (3) Deez Nuts

LLUA knocks Deez Nuts off (ohh wordplay) a round early, thus confusing everyone as to whether the streak continues or not.


Championship

(1) Southside vs (2) LLUA

Well I can't pick myself, that isn't fair. No, I actually believe this is pretty accurate. Southside and LLUA started off even (literally tying the first game) then have had some lopsided contests as of late. They've got an offense that has consistently produced against the LLUA defense, and I predict they win their first league trophy here.



Alright, this should be a solid start. So I feel better about how much time I put into this, if you guys could chat it up, that'd be pretty awesome. Would love to see other predictions, and maybe some week one writeups. Also, I'll introduce a contest tomorrow if anyone's interested, maybe throw another 1000 flex reward out for it.
Edited by GoGetta on Mar 23, 2016 02:59:23
 
briansimoneau
brain saimin
offline
Link
 
Love the predictions, especially since my HB is on Southside!
 
Link
 
Good write up
Edited by Myrik_Justiciar on Mar 23, 2016 08:20:18
 
Sutor
offline
Link
 
Nice write up GoGetta. Thanks
 
MileHighShoes
offline
Link
 
Looking forward to this season.
Deez Nuts may seem like they made some small changes to the roster, but they will be coming with much larger scale changes to game-plan, and builds. We won't be quite the same team as we have been, so look out guys. This season will certainly be VERY interesting.
 
Link
 
Originally posted by GoGetta
Beta Division

Prediction

Deez Nuts wins the division. Probably tying Enterprise. Both streaks continue?



Awesome write up! Except for the part where you don't have GE winning the division. Vader will take SVSB to the promise land!
Edited by Galactic Empire on Mar 23, 2016 11:06:07
 
GoGetta
offline
Link
 
If you guys could repay me by opening up to scrimmage to test the new progressions out, then we will be good =D
 
GoGetta
offline
Link
 
Does anyone have differing thoughts?
 
bdnannac
offline
Link
 
Great read! Thanks for the effort.
 
Sabresfan61
offline
Link
 
Great job on the write up. Hoping to bounce back after a down season.
 
Link
 
Originally posted by GoGetta
Does anyone have differing thoughts?


I might give a prediction later tonight if I get some time.
 
Majestic Gent
offline
Link
 
Originally posted by Galactic Empire
Awesome write up! Except for the part where you don't have GE winning the division. Vader will take SVSB to the promise land!


Mr. Peanut vs. Vader... can't wait!
 
Page:
 


You are not logged in. Please log in if you want to post a reply.