Warrior General Games

Okay the second to last game is in the books and we are heading for the playoffs. But who will take the trip and who will stay out?

Already qualified are:
Louisiana - Gamma champion and best record
Boston - Alpha champions

Already out of the playoff race:
Oakland
the Goats
New Jersey
Busan
Kansas City
Traverse City

Teams that are still in the playoff race:
North Texas
Draco
Las Vegas
the Monsters

What has to happen that these teams make the playoffs?

North Texas Mean Greens (8-4-1) 98 points allowed, 208 points scored
They should have the tiebreaker over Draco (Head-to-head record is 1-0-1). But you never know how GLB handles the tie in the second division game. But assuming that everything works how it should, North Texas makes the playoffs by...
... winning the last game (but there could be a little twist, if Draco wins as well and LV ties its game)
... losing the last game and Draco is losing its game too
... tying the last game and Draco isn’t winning its game

Draco Dragons (8-4-1), 63 points allowed, 192 points scored
They should trail North Texas because of the head-to-head record (0-1-1). But like I said before, that GLB tie breaking script can be a bit bitchy. If everything works as intended (and I mean intended by logical rules, not by 'Bort that it works as intended'-intended) Draco makes the playoffs by...
... winning the last game and either North Texas or Las Vegas isn’t winning its game
… tying the last game and North Texas is losing its last game

Las Vegas (9-4), 131 points allowed, 162 points scored,
Las Vegas would have secured the wildcard spot already, but the 0-17 loss to the Monsters forces them into an early make-or-break game. Who is their opponent? The team with the best record in the league, Louisiana. This should be a very tough game for Las Vegas. They make the playoffs by…
… winning the last game
… not winning the last game and the Monsters aren’t winning their game and either North Texas or Draco isn’t winning their game.
… losing the last game and the Monsters are losing their game, giving up at least 13 more points than Las Vegas and either North Texas or Draco isn’t winning their game
… losing the last game and the Monsters are losing their game, giving up exactly 12 points more than Las Vegas, plus Las Vegas scores at least 17 more points than the Monsters and either North Texas or Draco isn’t winning their game (very, very hypothetical, but hey, have you ever watched the second half of the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final?), two matching scores would be LV loses 17-18 and the Monsters lose 0-30… just saying… it is possible…
…tying the last game and both North Texas and Draco winning their game, plus North Texas allows at least 34 points more than Las Vegas and/or Draco allows at least 69 points more than Las Vegas. Matching scores would be LV 0-0, North Texas 38-35 and/or Draco 77-69. (That’s more in the fairytale department)
…tying the last game and Draco is winning their game and North Texas is not winning their game

Flying Spaghetti Monsters (8-5), 119 points allowed, 178 points scored
… winning their game, Las Vegas loses their game, plus the Monsters aren’t giving up more than 12 points more than Las Vegas and either North Texas or Draco isn’t winning.

I hope I have looked at most possibilities but I am pretty sure, that there are some other things, I haven’t looked at.

So what are the matchups these teams have to face?

North Texas plays Kansas City (2-11).
Draco plays the Giants (7-6)
Las Vegas plays Louisiana (12-1)
The Monsters play Traverse City (3-10)

My prediction:
North Texas should come away with an easy victory and clinch the Beta division
Draco should come away with a win as well and will have to hope for Louisiana to win.
Las Vegas has a tough, tough game ahead. Louisiana can basically decide who they want to play in the first round. If Louisiana loses to Las Vegas, they will play them in the first round of the playoffs. If they win, they will very likely face Draco.
The Monsters should be able to win as well, but they need some crazy things to happen to have a chance to make the playoffs.

So my guess is that North Texas will take Beta and Draco will follow as the wildcard team. But again, everything will be decided in Las Vegas. If Louisiana brings a test gameplan we could see a little surprise.

Good luck to all teams (which is obviously a pretty stupid wish, because only two of these teams will make the playoffs).

I'm just happy to be in the conversation. And good god, has Draco really only allowed 63 points?

Originally posted by Absolut Zero
And good god, has Draco really only allowed 63 points?

I thought the same thing, they have shut out opponents 7 times...

Originally posted by Evil Sports Agent
I thought the same thing, they have shut out opponents 7 times...

Now I feel better about only scoring 3 points against them.

Originally posted by Absolut Zero
Now I feel better about only scoring 3 points against them.

They have lost their 4 games by combinded 23 points (10, 3, 3, 7 points)... What a shame.

EDIT: Boston has lost one game by 21 points...

Love it ESA!

we are coming for you boston.

when the number 2 meats teh number 3 seat. BE READY.

Originally posted by Absolut Zero
I'm just happy to be in the conversation. And good god, has Draco really only allowed 63 points?

hey i run a defense that works!

we blew it.... absolutely blew it.
I'm devestated. A lot of work and our team just collapsed for some reason late in the season.

Originally posted by iain35
we blew it.... absolutely blew it.
I'm devestated. A lot of work and our team just collapsed for some reason late in the season.

One game... And I dont talk about the Monsters... You stumbled over Traverse City in game 3.

But it is not over yet. Louisiana wasnt that great the last 3 games, you have a chance for a surprise.

You're right, it does come down to that traverse city game coming back to haunt me

Yup, its over, late season collapse and the early loss to traverse destroys us and we lose the wildcard on a tiebreak.
what a heartbreak

Originally posted by iain35
Yup, its over, late season collapse and the early loss to traverse destroys us and we lose the wildcard on a tiebreak.
what a heartbreak

Despite not making the playoffs, you had a pretty good season. Neither of us made the playoffs, but we threatened the wild card spot.

I don't think either your team or mine could take Louisiana right now. Add in that they've been experimenting on D recently, so I don't know what they'd actually roll out in the playoffs.