Warrior General Games

After reaching 3 star On An Island on several of my players I've been watching for it in games and also had defensive schemes in which would try and leave these players in single coverage most of the time.

The Player

CB - Jordan Foles http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/player/18725

Has 3* On An Island, 71 man cov (at time of sims), 70 coverage tech, 70 deflection, 40 vert and 30 diving.

Hypothesis

3* OaI has a 75% chance of firing; we'll assume this is if you have 100 man cov awareness so we'll say that the actual chance for Jordan is 75%*0.71 = 53.23% chance of firing whenever the conditions are met.

If we go through the last 2 games played by the Bogans we have 11 plays where it's clear the firing conditions are met (a handful more where it's debatable so I've excluded those, not that OaI fires on those either!)

Results

vs Faber Animals (League):

http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/36769/2723924
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/36769/2723956
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/36769/2724004
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/36769/2724500
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/36769/2724536
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/36769/2724549
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/36769/2725373
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/36769/2725427

vs Las Vegas Outlaws

http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/50950/2671456
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/50950/2672041
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/50950/2672438

OaI doesn't fire once in 11 clear triggering situations.

Discussion

If we are to assume that our original hypothesis of 53.25% chance of firing and assume that all of these plays produced a roll for the SA then there is a 0.0233% chance of this occuring. I'm going to continue to collect plays for Jordan and may go through my other 2/3* OaI players (2*: http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/player/21078, http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/player/21079, http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/player/21088. 3*: http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/player/21081, http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/player/21234)

I think it's clear that something in my assumptions is wrong so there are a few possible options as to what's causing these results:

1. There is no roll for OaI in these plays. This is because either I'm not interpreting the conditions correctly or there is a significant bug in the sim which doesn't trigger a roll under certain common conditions. Maybe the way it checks for a ball entering deflection range requires the defender to pass some additional awareness check?

2. The estimated firing percentage of 53.25% is wrong. This number is probably incorrect but I expect it to be within the ball park; I could work out if the method is correct on the more common SAs such as 3rd Down Stopper. Another possible bug is that there is an extra or missing 0 somewhere in the code which causes this to be a 5.325% chance or similar in which case the observed results would be entirely expected.

Conclusion

I think it's clear there is something fucked up about OaI, i'll continue to add results as games are played.

Does OaI have a visual trigger per Bort or C-dawg? That could be the flaw.

Originally posted by InRomoWeTrust
Does OaI have a visual trigger per Bort or C-dawg? That could be the flaw.

http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/35987/1896754?player_id=23532

This play probably raises more questions than answers because that guy is no where near deflection range. Maybe there is a greater than or equal to in code instead of less than or equal to (for the 4 yards).

Originally posted by InRomoWeTrust
Does OaI have a visual trigger per Bort or C-dawg? That could be the flaw.

Yes... we have all seen one of the 5 times in all GLB that it has triggered. It has a visual text code. Also... the WR still caught the ball because deflection is fuck all broken.... but one issue at a time.

Originally posted by Thunderoo
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/35987/1896754?player_id=23532

This play probably raises more questions than answers because that guy is no where near deflection range. Maybe there is a greater than or equal to in code instead of less than or equal to (for the 4 yards).

Interesting is, that OaI seems to trigger twice in that play...

Originally posted by Thunderoo
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/35987/1896754?player_id=23532

This play probably raises more questions than answers because that guy is no where near deflection range. Maybe there is a greater than or equal to in code instead of less than or equal to (for the 4 yards).

I've only ever seen it fire when my CB is about 4 yards away from the WR much like in your replay.

last time I have seen it fire, there it was the same...maybe sth is messed up in the code? Ony firing when the CB is on his very own?^^

Maybe they hosed the code and the defender with On an Island also has to be 4+ yards away

Lazy coders?

Looked at the replays linked, looks like the CB is always within 4 yards. Perhaps they forgot to code in the "no other defender" part.

Originally posted by kurieg
Looked at the replays linked, looks like the CB is always within 4 yards. Perhaps they forgot to code in the "no other defender" part.



It looks like there can't be any other defenders within 4 other yards of the CB. It doesn't matter if there is a defender right on top of the receiver.

Originally posted by Longhornfan1024
It looks like there can't be any other defenders within 4 other yards of the CB. It doesn't matter if there is a defender right on top of the receiver.

Every replay I linked has no other defender anywhere near.

perhaps a bug in the code causing the sa to think the wr is a defender?

vs Oklahoma Outlaws [Ladder]

http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/51857/2831672
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/51857/2832166
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/51857/2832399
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/51857/2832423
http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/replay/51857/2832527

Another 5 rolls and not one activation.

Note that there also have not been any activations from my other 5 players with OaI (3 are 2* and 2 are 3*)

This bug having a massive impact on our game plans as if it would reliably fire we could shut down multiple WRs per game. Boosting Man Awareness on each of these players as high as possible (95-100 on most) to get the best possible chance of it firing.

Originally posted by Thunderoo
Every replay I linked has no other defender anywhere near.

The play you linked that everyone is discussion has the DT right near the receiver.