WL ZETA CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PICTURE - after 15 games
Oh, Alpha wants one of these too? Cool. Go write one.
Also, figuring out the mess at #6 through #11 has reduced my sanity to about 37% of what it was this morning. Fortunately, the miniature flying lizard people here in the casbah are helping me rebalance my humours and regronificate my sharpies, and they will be accompanying me on my sporatical journey to the summit of Mount Eau Gallie, which is either the tallest peak in my county or the local landfill. Actually, both might be true. Ask me tomorrow, man.
Are you ready? Hang on...
1.) South Otto Fragile Porcelain Mice (13-2) - CLINCHED #1
Game 16: #7 New Orleans Gurupies (8-7)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Republic
South Otto has already clinched the #1 seed thanks to their earlier win over Republic. The Mice can officially take it easy for Game 16.
2.) Republic of Benin (12-3) - CLINCHED TOP-4
Game 16: #4 Odessa Mojo (11-4)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau; lost to South Otto; hasn't played Odessa yet; 320 points-allowed
If Republic beats Odessa, Republic will clinch the 2-seed, though no higher due to their prior loss to South Otto.
If Republic loses to Odessa, then Asau-Venom comes into play.
- If Asau gets upset by Venom and falls to 11-5, then Republic and Odessa would tie at 12-4, with Odessa taking #2 from the tie-breaker and Republic holding #3 ahead of Asau.
- But if Asau beats Venom, that sets up a 3-way tie at 12-4 between Asau, Republic and Odessa. All 3 teams would be 1-1 head-to-head, so the tie would be settled by Points-Allowed. Asau currently leads there at 282 (a 38-point gap over Republic), then Republic at 320 (a 35-point gap over Odessa), then Odessa at 355. Both of those gaps would be hard to close, so it would probably result in Asau at #2, Republic at #3, Odessa at #4.
3.) Asau Golden Eagles (11-4) - CLINCHED TOP-5
Game 16: #9 Venom Dotball Academy (7-8)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Odessa; lost to Republic, Orlando; 282 points-allowed
If Asau beats Venom, Asau clinches the 3-seed... or the 2-seed if Odessa also upsets Republic to set up a 3-way tie at 12-4 between Asau, Republic and Odessa. Such a tie would have to be settled by points-allowed since all 3 teams would have a 1-1 head-to-head record, and Asau has a nearly-insurmountable 38-point advantage in points-allowed, so they'd end up on top and would take the 2-seed.
If Asau gets upset by Venom and drops to 11-5, they can still hold onto the 3-seed, but only if Republic beats Odessa... whether Orlando wins or loses, Asau would win the resulting 3-way tie on points-allowed if Orlando wins or the resulting 2-way tie with Odessa if Orlando loses.
However, if Asau gets upset by Venom and Odessa upsets Republic, then Asau would drop to #4 if Orlando loses or to #5 if Orlando wins, due to Asau's prior loss to Orlando.
4.) Odessa Mojo (11-4) - CLINCHED TOP-5
Game 16: #2 Republic of Benin (12-3)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Orlando; lost to Asau; hasn't played Republic yet; 355 points-allowed
Win or lose, Odessa is going to finish as the 4-seed -- except for a couple of scenarios.
Odessa can actually finish as the 2-seed if they upset Republic AND if Venom upsets Asau. That would allow Odessa to finish in a tie at 12-4 with Republic while avoiding a tie with Asau, who Odessa already lost to earlier this season.
Odessa can also finish as the 3-seed if Odessa upsets Republic AND if Asau beats Venom. That would set up a 3-way tie at 12-4 between Asau, Republic and Odessa. All three teams would be 1-1 head-to-head, so Points-Allowed would break the tie. However, Asau is way out of reach, and Republic currently enjoys a 35-point advantage over Odessa in points-allowed, so Odessa would have to beat Republic by 36 points or more to take #3. Anything closer, and Odessa stays stuck at #4.
There's also one scenario where Odessa would drop down to the 5-seed: Odessa loses to Republic, Venom upsets Asau, and Orlando beats Sunday. That would set up a 3-way tie at 11-5 between Asau, Orlando, and Odessa. All three teams would be 1-1 head-to-head, so Points-Allowed would break the tie: Asau at 282, Orlando at 345, and Odessa at 355 as it stands now. There's only a 10-point gap between Orlando and Odessa, but Odessa would have to somehow close that gap in a scenario in which Orlando wins and Odessa loses, and that's not likely, so Odessa would be stuck at the bottom at #5.
5.) Orlando Prime Timers (10-5) - CLINCHED TOP-5
Game 16: #10 Sunday Funday (7-8)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau, Dogs; lost to Odessa; 345 points-allowed
The highest Orlando can go is #4... to get there, Orlando needs to defeat Sunday, and Venom needs to upset Asau. That would set up either a 2-way or 3-way tie at 11-5 depending on the outcome of Republic-Odessa. An Odessa loss would set up a 3-way round-robin tie with Asau, Orlando, and Odessa, to be settled by Points-Allowed, where Asau's 63-point edge is unbeatable but where Orlando's 10-point edge over Odessa might just be enough to hold #4. An Odessa win would set up a 2-way tie with Orlando and Asau, and Orlando's prior win over Asau would push them up to #4.
In all other scenarios, Orlando would remain at #5. An Asau win would put them out of Orlando's reach, and Orlando's prior loss to Odessa would hold them down in a tie. Fortunately, Orlando can't drop any further down than #5 even if Orlando loses to Sunday, thanks to their prior win over The Dogs.
6.) The Dogs Of War (9-6) - CLINCHED TOP-8
Game 16: #15 Nairobi Warthogs (3-12)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated New Orleans; lost to Orlando, Fire; 309 points-allowed
#6 is the ceiling for The Dogs... their prior loss to Orlando means they can't pass them in the standings, though The Dogs can at least clinch the 6-seed by taking care of business against Nairobi.
But... what if The Dogs get upset by Nairobi? Then the New Orleans and Fire games come into play.
- If both New Orleans and Fire lose, The Dogs stay ahead of them in the standings and hold onto #6.
- If New Orleans wins and Fire loses, The Dogs still hold #6 thanks to their prior win over New Orleans.
- If Fire wins and New Orleans loses, The Dogs's prior loss to Fire would drop The Dogs to #7.
- If New Orleans and Fire both win, the result is a 3-way tie at 9-7 with The Dogs, New Orleans, and Fire. All three teams are 1-1 head-to-head, so the tie would be broken by Points-Allowed, where the Dogs currently hold only a 1-point advantage over New Orleans and a 21-point advantage over Fire. The Dogs would probably drop to #7, maybe as low as #8 based on how many points everyone gives up in Game 16. However, that's the lowest The Dogs can go, no further.
7.) New Orleans Gurupies (8-7)
Game 16: #1 South Otto Fragile Porcelain Mice (13-2)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Fire, Venom; lost to Dogs, Sunday, Carthage; 310 points-allowed
If New Orleans upsets South Otto...
- If The Dogs win, New Orleans stays at #7 due to their prior win over Fire, regardless of whether Fire wins or loses.
- If The Dogs and Fire both lose, New Orleans stays at #7 due to their prior loss to The Dogs.
- If The Dogs lose and Fire wins, the result is a 3-way tie at 9-7 with The Dogs, New Orleans, and Fire. All three teams are 1-1 head-to-head, so the tie would be broken by Points-Allowed, where the Dogs currently hold only a 1-point advantage over New Orleans, who in-turn holds a 20-point advantage over Fire. New Orleans would have a legit shot at stealing #6 through points-allowed, and only a slim chance of slipping to #8.
If New Orleans loses to South Otto, well... hang on. To still make the playoffs, New Orleans would need 2 of these 3 teams to lose: Fire, Sunday, and Carthage. If 2 of those 3 teams lose, New Orleans will make the playoffs. If 2 of those 3 teams win, New Orleans is out... UNLESS one of these two scenarios happens:
- Fire, Venom, and Sunday all win while Carthage loses. That would set up a 3-way tie for the 8-seed, which New Orleans would probably win on points-allowed.
- The big enchilada: Fire loses, while Venom, Sunday, and Carthage all win. That would set up a 5-way tie at 8-8, and New Orleans would probably hold onto the 8-seed thanks to a combination of head-to-head record and points-allowed.
8.) Fire Breathing Rubber Duckies (8-7)
Game 16: #12 All The King's Royal Men (6-9)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Dogs, Venom, Sunday; lost to New Orleans, Carthage; 330 points-allowed
I've gone cross-eyed figuring out New Orleans, so from here on out I'm not even going to worry about seeding. I'm just going to worry about whether or not a team will make the playoffs or not.
If Fire beats King, Fire makes the playoffs. Nice and simple.
If Fire loses, they're still probably in the playoffs anyway, thanks to their prior wins over Venom and Sunday. However, there is still a scenario in which Fire can still miss the playoffs. If Carthage wins and Fire loses, Fire is out of the playoffs due to Fire's prior loss to Carthage... unless New Orleans and Sunday both also win, which would set up either a 3-way or 4-way tie that would keep Fire in the 8-seed thanks to a combination of head-to-head record and points-allowed.
9.) Venom Dotball Academy (7-8)
Game 16: #3 Asau Golden Eagles (11-4)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Sunday; lost to New Orleans, Fire, Carthage; 345 points-allowed
Venom's prior losses to New Orleans, Fire and Carthage make their playoff hopes bleak. But there is actually one scenario -- just one -- in which Venom can still sneak into the 8-seed. Wanna know what it is? Watch this:
Venom upsets Asau, New Orleans loses to South Otto, Fire beats King, Sunday upsets Orlando, and Carthage beats Miami. That sets up a 3-way tie for the 8-seed at 8-8 between New Orleans, Venom and Sunday, and all three teams would have 1-1 head-to-head records, which sends it to Points-Allowed. Even then, however, New Orleans has a 35-point advantage over Venom (who in turn has a 45-point advantage over Sunday), so in addition, Venom would also have to somehow close that 35-point gap in Points-Allowed.
Impossible? No.
Likely? Also no.
10.) Sunday Funday (7-8)
Game 16: #5 Orlando Prime Timers (10-5)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated New Orleans, Carthage; lost to Fire, Venom; 390 points-allowed
If Sunday loses, of course, they're out.
If Sunday upsets Orlando, there are still only 4 scenarios in which Sunday can make the playoffs:
- New Orleans loses to South Otto, Fire loses to King, Venom loses to Asau, and Carthage beats Miami. That sets up a 4-way tie at 8-8, and Sunday would make the playoffs based on head-to-head record.
- New Orleans loses to South Otto, Fire beats King, Venom loses to Asau, and Carthage beats Miami. Sunday wins a 3-way tie based on head-to-head record and makes the playoffs.
- New Orleans loses to South Otto, Fire beats King, Venom upsets Asau, and Miami upsets Carthage. Sunday's prior win over New Orleans would put them into the playoffs.
- New Orleans loses to South Otto, Fire beats King, Venom upsets Asau, and Carthage beats Miami. The result is a 4-way tie at 8-8, and Sunday would probably make the playoffs as the 8-seed based on head-to-head record and points-allowed, but only if they can keep their 20-point advantage over Carthage.
In any other scenario, Sunday misses the playoffs.
11.) Carthage Clash (7-8)
Game 16: #13 Miami Red Hawks (4-11)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated New Orleans, Fire, Venom; lost to Sunday; 410 points-allowed
If Carthage loses, they miss the playoffs, of course.
If Carthage wins, their prior wins over New Orleans, Fire and Venom give them a long-shot chance to make the playoffs. Here's how they can still sneak in:
- New Orleans and Fire both lose. That would set up a favorable tie-breaker for Carthage, letting them finish #7 or #8.
- New Orleans upsets South Otto, King upsets Fire, and Sunday loses to Orlando. That would also set up a favorable tie-breaker to make the playoffs.
- New Orleans loses, Fire wins, and Sunday loses. Again, that would set up a favorable tie-breaker to make the playoffs.
In any other scenario, Carthage misses the playoffs.
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Is that it?
I think that's it.
Unless someone ties.
If someone ties, fuck you.
Oh, Alpha wants one of these too? Cool. Go write one.
Also, figuring out the mess at #6 through #11 has reduced my sanity to about 37% of what it was this morning. Fortunately, the miniature flying lizard people here in the casbah are helping me rebalance my humours and regronificate my sharpies, and they will be accompanying me on my sporatical journey to the summit of Mount Eau Gallie, which is either the tallest peak in my county or the local landfill. Actually, both might be true. Ask me tomorrow, man.
Are you ready? Hang on...
1.) South Otto Fragile Porcelain Mice (13-2) - CLINCHED #1
Game 16: #7 New Orleans Gurupies (8-7)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Republic
South Otto has already clinched the #1 seed thanks to their earlier win over Republic. The Mice can officially take it easy for Game 16.
2.) Republic of Benin (12-3) - CLINCHED TOP-4
Game 16: #4 Odessa Mojo (11-4)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau; lost to South Otto; hasn't played Odessa yet; 320 points-allowed
If Republic beats Odessa, Republic will clinch the 2-seed, though no higher due to their prior loss to South Otto.
If Republic loses to Odessa, then Asau-Venom comes into play.
- If Asau gets upset by Venom and falls to 11-5, then Republic and Odessa would tie at 12-4, with Odessa taking #2 from the tie-breaker and Republic holding #3 ahead of Asau.
- But if Asau beats Venom, that sets up a 3-way tie at 12-4 between Asau, Republic and Odessa. All 3 teams would be 1-1 head-to-head, so the tie would be settled by Points-Allowed. Asau currently leads there at 282 (a 38-point gap over Republic), then Republic at 320 (a 35-point gap over Odessa), then Odessa at 355. Both of those gaps would be hard to close, so it would probably result in Asau at #2, Republic at #3, Odessa at #4.
3.) Asau Golden Eagles (11-4) - CLINCHED TOP-5
Game 16: #9 Venom Dotball Academy (7-8)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Odessa; lost to Republic, Orlando; 282 points-allowed
If Asau beats Venom, Asau clinches the 3-seed... or the 2-seed if Odessa also upsets Republic to set up a 3-way tie at 12-4 between Asau, Republic and Odessa. Such a tie would have to be settled by points-allowed since all 3 teams would have a 1-1 head-to-head record, and Asau has a nearly-insurmountable 38-point advantage in points-allowed, so they'd end up on top and would take the 2-seed.
If Asau gets upset by Venom and drops to 11-5, they can still hold onto the 3-seed, but only if Republic beats Odessa... whether Orlando wins or loses, Asau would win the resulting 3-way tie on points-allowed if Orlando wins or the resulting 2-way tie with Odessa if Orlando loses.
However, if Asau gets upset by Venom and Odessa upsets Republic, then Asau would drop to #4 if Orlando loses or to #5 if Orlando wins, due to Asau's prior loss to Orlando.
4.) Odessa Mojo (11-4) - CLINCHED TOP-5
Game 16: #2 Republic of Benin (12-3)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Orlando; lost to Asau; hasn't played Republic yet; 355 points-allowed
Win or lose, Odessa is going to finish as the 4-seed -- except for a couple of scenarios.
Odessa can actually finish as the 2-seed if they upset Republic AND if Venom upsets Asau. That would allow Odessa to finish in a tie at 12-4 with Republic while avoiding a tie with Asau, who Odessa already lost to earlier this season.
Odessa can also finish as the 3-seed if Odessa upsets Republic AND if Asau beats Venom. That would set up a 3-way tie at 12-4 between Asau, Republic and Odessa. All three teams would be 1-1 head-to-head, so Points-Allowed would break the tie. However, Asau is way out of reach, and Republic currently enjoys a 35-point advantage over Odessa in points-allowed, so Odessa would have to beat Republic by 36 points or more to take #3. Anything closer, and Odessa stays stuck at #4.
There's also one scenario where Odessa would drop down to the 5-seed: Odessa loses to Republic, Venom upsets Asau, and Orlando beats Sunday. That would set up a 3-way tie at 11-5 between Asau, Orlando, and Odessa. All three teams would be 1-1 head-to-head, so Points-Allowed would break the tie: Asau at 282, Orlando at 345, and Odessa at 355 as it stands now. There's only a 10-point gap between Orlando and Odessa, but Odessa would have to somehow close that gap in a scenario in which Orlando wins and Odessa loses, and that's not likely, so Odessa would be stuck at the bottom at #5.
5.) Orlando Prime Timers (10-5) - CLINCHED TOP-5
Game 16: #10 Sunday Funday (7-8)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau, Dogs; lost to Odessa; 345 points-allowed
The highest Orlando can go is #4... to get there, Orlando needs to defeat Sunday, and Venom needs to upset Asau. That would set up either a 2-way or 3-way tie at 11-5 depending on the outcome of Republic-Odessa. An Odessa loss would set up a 3-way round-robin tie with Asau, Orlando, and Odessa, to be settled by Points-Allowed, where Asau's 63-point edge is unbeatable but where Orlando's 10-point edge over Odessa might just be enough to hold #4. An Odessa win would set up a 2-way tie with Orlando and Asau, and Orlando's prior win over Asau would push them up to #4.
In all other scenarios, Orlando would remain at #5. An Asau win would put them out of Orlando's reach, and Orlando's prior loss to Odessa would hold them down in a tie. Fortunately, Orlando can't drop any further down than #5 even if Orlando loses to Sunday, thanks to their prior win over The Dogs.
6.) The Dogs Of War (9-6) - CLINCHED TOP-8
Game 16: #15 Nairobi Warthogs (3-12)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated New Orleans; lost to Orlando, Fire; 309 points-allowed
#6 is the ceiling for The Dogs... their prior loss to Orlando means they can't pass them in the standings, though The Dogs can at least clinch the 6-seed by taking care of business against Nairobi.
But... what if The Dogs get upset by Nairobi? Then the New Orleans and Fire games come into play.
- If both New Orleans and Fire lose, The Dogs stay ahead of them in the standings and hold onto #6.
- If New Orleans wins and Fire loses, The Dogs still hold #6 thanks to their prior win over New Orleans.
- If Fire wins and New Orleans loses, The Dogs's prior loss to Fire would drop The Dogs to #7.
- If New Orleans and Fire both win, the result is a 3-way tie at 9-7 with The Dogs, New Orleans, and Fire. All three teams are 1-1 head-to-head, so the tie would be broken by Points-Allowed, where the Dogs currently hold only a 1-point advantage over New Orleans and a 21-point advantage over Fire. The Dogs would probably drop to #7, maybe as low as #8 based on how many points everyone gives up in Game 16. However, that's the lowest The Dogs can go, no further.
7.) New Orleans Gurupies (8-7)
Game 16: #1 South Otto Fragile Porcelain Mice (13-2)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Fire, Venom; lost to Dogs, Sunday, Carthage; 310 points-allowed
If New Orleans upsets South Otto...
- If The Dogs win, New Orleans stays at #7 due to their prior win over Fire, regardless of whether Fire wins or loses.
- If The Dogs and Fire both lose, New Orleans stays at #7 due to their prior loss to The Dogs.
- If The Dogs lose and Fire wins, the result is a 3-way tie at 9-7 with The Dogs, New Orleans, and Fire. All three teams are 1-1 head-to-head, so the tie would be broken by Points-Allowed, where the Dogs currently hold only a 1-point advantage over New Orleans, who in-turn holds a 20-point advantage over Fire. New Orleans would have a legit shot at stealing #6 through points-allowed, and only a slim chance of slipping to #8.
If New Orleans loses to South Otto, well... hang on. To still make the playoffs, New Orleans would need 2 of these 3 teams to lose: Fire, Sunday, and Carthage. If 2 of those 3 teams lose, New Orleans will make the playoffs. If 2 of those 3 teams win, New Orleans is out... UNLESS one of these two scenarios happens:
- Fire, Venom, and Sunday all win while Carthage loses. That would set up a 3-way tie for the 8-seed, which New Orleans would probably win on points-allowed.
- The big enchilada: Fire loses, while Venom, Sunday, and Carthage all win. That would set up a 5-way tie at 8-8, and New Orleans would probably hold onto the 8-seed thanks to a combination of head-to-head record and points-allowed.
8.) Fire Breathing Rubber Duckies (8-7)
Game 16: #12 All The King's Royal Men (6-9)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Dogs, Venom, Sunday; lost to New Orleans, Carthage; 330 points-allowed
I've gone cross-eyed figuring out New Orleans, so from here on out I'm not even going to worry about seeding. I'm just going to worry about whether or not a team will make the playoffs or not.
If Fire beats King, Fire makes the playoffs. Nice and simple.
If Fire loses, they're still probably in the playoffs anyway, thanks to their prior wins over Venom and Sunday. However, there is still a scenario in which Fire can still miss the playoffs. If Carthage wins and Fire loses, Fire is out of the playoffs due to Fire's prior loss to Carthage... unless New Orleans and Sunday both also win, which would set up either a 3-way or 4-way tie that would keep Fire in the 8-seed thanks to a combination of head-to-head record and points-allowed.
9.) Venom Dotball Academy (7-8)
Game 16: #3 Asau Golden Eagles (11-4)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Sunday; lost to New Orleans, Fire, Carthage; 345 points-allowed
Venom's prior losses to New Orleans, Fire and Carthage make their playoff hopes bleak. But there is actually one scenario -- just one -- in which Venom can still sneak into the 8-seed. Wanna know what it is? Watch this:
Venom upsets Asau, New Orleans loses to South Otto, Fire beats King, Sunday upsets Orlando, and Carthage beats Miami. That sets up a 3-way tie for the 8-seed at 8-8 between New Orleans, Venom and Sunday, and all three teams would have 1-1 head-to-head records, which sends it to Points-Allowed. Even then, however, New Orleans has a 35-point advantage over Venom (who in turn has a 45-point advantage over Sunday), so in addition, Venom would also have to somehow close that 35-point gap in Points-Allowed.
Impossible? No.
Likely? Also no.
10.) Sunday Funday (7-8)
Game 16: #5 Orlando Prime Timers (10-5)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated New Orleans, Carthage; lost to Fire, Venom; 390 points-allowed
If Sunday loses, of course, they're out.
If Sunday upsets Orlando, there are still only 4 scenarios in which Sunday can make the playoffs:
- New Orleans loses to South Otto, Fire loses to King, Venom loses to Asau, and Carthage beats Miami. That sets up a 4-way tie at 8-8, and Sunday would make the playoffs based on head-to-head record.
- New Orleans loses to South Otto, Fire beats King, Venom loses to Asau, and Carthage beats Miami. Sunday wins a 3-way tie based on head-to-head record and makes the playoffs.
- New Orleans loses to South Otto, Fire beats King, Venom upsets Asau, and Miami upsets Carthage. Sunday's prior win over New Orleans would put them into the playoffs.
- New Orleans loses to South Otto, Fire beats King, Venom upsets Asau, and Carthage beats Miami. The result is a 4-way tie at 8-8, and Sunday would probably make the playoffs as the 8-seed based on head-to-head record and points-allowed, but only if they can keep their 20-point advantage over Carthage.
In any other scenario, Sunday misses the playoffs.
11.) Carthage Clash (7-8)
Game 16: #13 Miami Red Hawks (4-11)
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated New Orleans, Fire, Venom; lost to Sunday; 410 points-allowed
If Carthage loses, they miss the playoffs, of course.
If Carthage wins, their prior wins over New Orleans, Fire and Venom give them a long-shot chance to make the playoffs. Here's how they can still sneak in:
- New Orleans and Fire both lose. That would set up a favorable tie-breaker for Carthage, letting them finish #7 or #8.
- New Orleans upsets South Otto, King upsets Fire, and Sunday loses to Orlando. That would also set up a favorable tie-breaker to make the playoffs.
- New Orleans loses, Fire wins, and Sunday loses. Again, that would set up a favorable tie-breaker to make the playoffs.
In any other scenario, Carthage misses the playoffs.
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Is that it?
I think that's it.
Unless someone ties.
If someone ties, fuck you.
