If you want a playoff picture for Zeta too, go write one. 
ALPHA CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PICTURE - after 14 games
1.) Graz Grizzlies (14-0) - CLINCHED #1
Game 15: #8 District 9 Prawns (8-6) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #13 Black Hand Goal Line Mafia (4-10) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau
Graz can take a quick vacation for the next few days, and when they come back, they'll still be the 1-seed. Their earlier win over Asau makes Games 15 and 16 irrelevant for them.
2.) Asau Golden Eagles (12-2) - CLINCHED TOP-4
Game 15: #5 Three Kingdom Warriors (9-5) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #9 Portland Rage (6-8) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Miami; lost to Graz, Coxsackie
Mathematically, Asau has only clinched a top-4 spot, but realistically, they've actually clinched a top-3 spot. The only way they could fall to #4 is if Coxsackie lost to either Chicago or Gold Coast (but not both), Asau lost to 3KW and Portland, and Miami defeated Hogwarts and Sunday, which would set up a 3-way tie at 12-4. The sticky part is Coxsackie getting upset by either Chicago or Gold Coast, neither of which is likely.
Coxsackie's easy finish does present a complication for Asau, though, since Coxsackie owns the tie-breaker over Asau. So, Asau has to stay ahead of them to stay at #2, and the only way to do that is for Asau to win both of their games as well. And both 3KW and Portland will be tough outs. But if Asau beats them both, they'll clinch #2.
If Asau drops one game and finishes 13-3, they'll end up tied with Coxsackie, lose the tie-breaker, and slip to #3.
If Asau drops both games and finishes 12-4, they'll still hold #3, even if Miami wins out to also finish 12-4, since Asau owns the tie-breaker over Miami.
3.) Coxsackie Hood Hugos (11-3) - CLINCHED TOP-5
Game 15: #14 Chicago Hedgehogs (4-10) {LIKELY WIN}
Game 16: #15 Gold Coast Vipers (3-11) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau, Three Kingdom; lost to Miami
Coxsackie's situation is pretty simple. They're almost certain to finish out with wins over Chicago and Gold Coast, so for the purposes of this write-up I'm just going to assume Coxsackie wins out and finishes 13-3. That means Coxsackie has realistically clinched a top-3 finish since Miami can't match that. And if Asau loses one or both of their final games, Coxsackie would leap-frog them to take the 2-seed, thanks to Coxackie owning the tie-breaker over Asau.
Simple, eh?
Now watch Chicago beat Coxsackie by 20 just to piss me off.
4.) Miami Red Hawks (10-4) - CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT
Game 15: #6 Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry (8-6) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #7 Sunday Funday (8-6) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Coxsackie, Three Kingdom, District 9; lost to Asau; hasn't played Hogwarts or Sunday yet; 383 points allowed
Even if Miami wins out against Hogwarts and Sunday, their ceiling seems to be the 4-seed. The only way they could get higher is for Coxsackie to somehow get upset by Chicago or Gold Coast, which is not likely.
If Miami splits their final 2 games to finish 11-5 (and assuming Coxsackie doesn't mange to lose both of their games), Miami would still clinch the 4-seed thanks to their earlier win over 3KW. Doesn't matter whether Miami's loss is to Hogwarts or to Sunday; the outcome is the same either way.
So, what happens if Miami loses both of their final 2 games to Hogwarts and Sunday? Well now it gets interesting.
The most fun scenario would be 3KW losing to Asau and beating Bloodweiser to finish 10-6, Hogwarts beating Chicago to finish 10-6, Sunday beating Portland to finish 10-6, and District 9 upsetting Graz and beating Padre to finish 10-6 -- for a 5-way tie at 10-6, spanning #4 through #8. 3KW would win on head-to-head record 3-1 and would take #4, and District would be at the bottom at 1-3 and would take #8. That would leave Miami, Hogwarts, and Sunday tied at 2-2 head-to-head, sending it to the points-allowed tie-breaker, where Hogwarts and Sunday have advantages of 82 points and 34 points, respectively. So Miami would probably end up #7 in such a 5-way tie.
If you take that 5-way scenario and tweak it so 3KW upsets Asau to finish 11-5, leaving a 4-way-tie at 10-6 between just Hogwarts, Sunday, Miami and District 9. Hogwarts and Sunday would be on top with head-to-head records of 2-1, while Miami and District 9 would be on the bottom with head-to-head records of 1-2 and would go to the points-allowed tie-breaker. Here, Miami has a substantial 44-point advantage, so Miami would most likely hold on to the #7 seed.
Those seem to be the worst possible scenarios for Miami losing their final 2 games: dropping to #7, but no lower. There's also a scenario in which Miami could drop their final 2 games and still hold the #4 seed: 3KW would need to lose to Asau, Hogwarts would need to lose to Chicago, Sunday would need to lose to Portland, and District 9 would need to lose to either Graz or Padre. That would put Miami and 3KW tied at 10-6 and everyone else at 9-7 or lower, and Miami owns the tie-breaker over 3KW and would hold the 4-spot.
There are 29 other scenarios that could play out in the event Miami loses their final two games, but in the interests of time I'll just say that they could result in Miami finishing anywhere from #5 to #7.
5.) Three Kingdom Warriors (9-5) - CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT
Game 15: #2 Asau Golden Eagles (12-2) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #12 Bloodweiser Bugle All Stars (4-10) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts, Sunday, District 9; lost to Coxsackie, Miami; 367 points allowed
Coxsackie is highly unlikely to drop their final 2 games against Chicago and Gold Coast, so the best 3KW can really hope for at this point is for Miami to lose their last 2 games and 3KW to upset Asau and win their gimme-game over Bloodweiser. That would put 3KW at 11-5, safely above everyone else for the 4-seed. If Miami splits their final 2 games, then Miami and 3KW would tie at 11-5, and Miami owns the tie-breaker, which would push 3KW down to #5.
But that appears to be the lowest 3KW can go. Even if they lose to Asau, they'd still almost certainly beat Bloodweiser to finish at 10-6. Hogwarts, Sunday, Miami, and/or District 9 could all tie 3KW at 10-6, but 3KW has already defeated Hogwards, Sunday and District 9. So barring a shocking loss to Bloodweiser, 3KW has clinched a top-5 finish.
6.) Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry (8-6)
Game 15: #4 Miami Red Hawks (10-4) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #14 Chicago Hedgehogs (4-10) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated District 9; lost to Three Kingdom, Sunday, Portland; hasn't played Miami yet; 301 points allowed
Hogwarts has reason to be nervous... their earlier loss to Portland means they could be vulnerable if Hogwarts drops their last two games to Miami and Chicago and Portland upsets Sunday and Asau to force a tie at 8-8... not the likliest outcome, but it's World League -- crazy stuff happens here. If Sunday and District 9 each won at least one more game, that would leave Hogwarts and Portland tied, with Portland taking #8 and Hogwarts dropping to #9. If Sunday followed their loss to Portland with a loss to Miami to create a 3-way tie at 8-8, Hogwarts's 0-2 head-to-head record would also push them down to #9, so that's no help. If District 9 lost their games with Graz and Padre to create their own 3-way tie at 8-8, Hogwarts would be in better shape... with everyone's head-to-head records being 1-1, the tie would be broken by points-allowed, where Hogwarts has a 100+ advantage over both teams, so Hogwarts would hold #7. And if Sunday and District 9 both lose their final two games to create a 4-way tie at 8-8, Hogwarts and Sunday would be on the bottom with 1-2 head-to-head records, but Hogwarts has a 48-point advantage over Sunday in points-allowed and would hold the 8-spot.
So, those are the worst-case scenarios for Hogwarts. A single-win for Hogwarts means they can avoid those entirely and clinch a playoff spot. I'm considering Chicago a toss-up game just because they've shown the potential for an upset here, but Hogwarts ought to be able to at least take care of business against Chicago, even if they lose to Miami first.
So how high can Hogwarts go if they beat Chicago and Miami to finish 10-6? No higher than #5, it looks like, and they'd need to catch just the right combination of teams in a multi-team tie.
7.) Sunday Funday (8-6)
Game 15: #9 Portland Rage (6-8) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #4 Miami Red Hawks (10-4) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts; lost to Three Kingdom, District 9; hasn't played Miami or Portland yet; 349 points allowed
Basically, Sunday needs a win or a Portland loss to clinch a playoff spot.
Sunday can save themselves a lot of trouble by just beating Portland in Game 15. Lose, however, and suddenly they're vulnerable... a Portland upset of Asau in Game 16 would mean that Sunday would need to upset Miami in Game 16 to clinch a playoff spot.
If Sunday drops both games to finish 8-8 and Portland follows their win over Sunday with an upset of Asau to also finish 8-8, Portland is in big trouble. A direct tie with just Portland at 8-8 means Portland would take the 8-spot and push Sunday out. Same with a 3-way tie at 8-8 between Sunday, District 9, and Portland (or a 4-way tie with Hogwarts added in). A 3-way tie including Hogwarts instead of District 9 would be better... Sunday's points-allowed advantage over Portland would help Sunday hold the 8-spot then.
The highest possible finish for Sunday appears to be #6, barring a shocking 3KW loss to Bloodweiser. The tie-breakers just don't break right for Sunday to get any higher.
8.) District 9 Prawns (8-6)
Game 15: #1 Graz Grizzlies (14-0) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #11 Padre's Parrish (4-10) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Sunday, Portland; lost to Miami, Three Kingdom, Hogwarts; 427 points allowed
I can only find one scenario in which District 9 can miss the playoffs: they lose to Graz and Padre to finish 8-8, Portland upsets Sunday and Asau to finish 8-8, Hogwarts loses to Miami and Chicago to finish 8-8, and Sunday upsets Miami to finish 9-7. That would create a 3-way tie at 8-8 between District 9, Portland, and Hogwarts, with each team holding a 1-1 head-to-head record. On points-allowed, Portland holds an 11-point advantage over District 9 that would probably be bigger in this scenario, and Hogwarts holds a 126-point advantage over District 9. So, District 9 would be screwed -- they'd drop to #9.
Pretty much any other scenario, even if District 9 loses their last 2 games, still keeps them in the 8-spot thanks to their wins over Sunday and Portland. And of course just one more win by District 9 punches their ticket for the playoffs, though the 7-spot appears to be their ceiling.
9.) Portland Rage (6-8)
Game 15: #7 Sunday Funday (8-6) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #2 Asau Golden Eagles (12-2) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts; lost to District 9; hasn't played Sunday yet; 416 points allowed
If Portland loses a game, they're done.
If Portland upsets both Sunday and Asau, they still need help to sneak into the playoffs. Basically, they'd need a scenario in which they tie Hogwarts, Sunday, or both so they can leverage a tie-breaker into the 8-spot. A tie with just District 9 doesn't help at all.
Basically, Portland is a long shot for the playoffs... but they're not dead yet.
ALPHA CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PICTURE - after 14 games
1.) Graz Grizzlies (14-0) - CLINCHED #1
Game 15: #8 District 9 Prawns (8-6) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #13 Black Hand Goal Line Mafia (4-10) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau
Graz can take a quick vacation for the next few days, and when they come back, they'll still be the 1-seed. Their earlier win over Asau makes Games 15 and 16 irrelevant for them.
2.) Asau Golden Eagles (12-2) - CLINCHED TOP-4
Game 15: #5 Three Kingdom Warriors (9-5) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #9 Portland Rage (6-8) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Miami; lost to Graz, Coxsackie
Mathematically, Asau has only clinched a top-4 spot, but realistically, they've actually clinched a top-3 spot. The only way they could fall to #4 is if Coxsackie lost to either Chicago or Gold Coast (but not both), Asau lost to 3KW and Portland, and Miami defeated Hogwarts and Sunday, which would set up a 3-way tie at 12-4. The sticky part is Coxsackie getting upset by either Chicago or Gold Coast, neither of which is likely.
Coxsackie's easy finish does present a complication for Asau, though, since Coxsackie owns the tie-breaker over Asau. So, Asau has to stay ahead of them to stay at #2, and the only way to do that is for Asau to win both of their games as well. And both 3KW and Portland will be tough outs. But if Asau beats them both, they'll clinch #2.
If Asau drops one game and finishes 13-3, they'll end up tied with Coxsackie, lose the tie-breaker, and slip to #3.
If Asau drops both games and finishes 12-4, they'll still hold #3, even if Miami wins out to also finish 12-4, since Asau owns the tie-breaker over Miami.
3.) Coxsackie Hood Hugos (11-3) - CLINCHED TOP-5
Game 15: #14 Chicago Hedgehogs (4-10) {LIKELY WIN}
Game 16: #15 Gold Coast Vipers (3-11) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau, Three Kingdom; lost to Miami
Coxsackie's situation is pretty simple. They're almost certain to finish out with wins over Chicago and Gold Coast, so for the purposes of this write-up I'm just going to assume Coxsackie wins out and finishes 13-3. That means Coxsackie has realistically clinched a top-3 finish since Miami can't match that. And if Asau loses one or both of their final games, Coxsackie would leap-frog them to take the 2-seed, thanks to Coxackie owning the tie-breaker over Asau.
Simple, eh?
Now watch Chicago beat Coxsackie by 20 just to piss me off.
4.) Miami Red Hawks (10-4) - CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT
Game 15: #6 Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry (8-6) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #7 Sunday Funday (8-6) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Coxsackie, Three Kingdom, District 9; lost to Asau; hasn't played Hogwarts or Sunday yet; 383 points allowed
Even if Miami wins out against Hogwarts and Sunday, their ceiling seems to be the 4-seed. The only way they could get higher is for Coxsackie to somehow get upset by Chicago or Gold Coast, which is not likely.
If Miami splits their final 2 games to finish 11-5 (and assuming Coxsackie doesn't mange to lose both of their games), Miami would still clinch the 4-seed thanks to their earlier win over 3KW. Doesn't matter whether Miami's loss is to Hogwarts or to Sunday; the outcome is the same either way.
So, what happens if Miami loses both of their final 2 games to Hogwarts and Sunday? Well now it gets interesting.
The most fun scenario would be 3KW losing to Asau and beating Bloodweiser to finish 10-6, Hogwarts beating Chicago to finish 10-6, Sunday beating Portland to finish 10-6, and District 9 upsetting Graz and beating Padre to finish 10-6 -- for a 5-way tie at 10-6, spanning #4 through #8. 3KW would win on head-to-head record 3-1 and would take #4, and District would be at the bottom at 1-3 and would take #8. That would leave Miami, Hogwarts, and Sunday tied at 2-2 head-to-head, sending it to the points-allowed tie-breaker, where Hogwarts and Sunday have advantages of 82 points and 34 points, respectively. So Miami would probably end up #7 in such a 5-way tie.
If you take that 5-way scenario and tweak it so 3KW upsets Asau to finish 11-5, leaving a 4-way-tie at 10-6 between just Hogwarts, Sunday, Miami and District 9. Hogwarts and Sunday would be on top with head-to-head records of 2-1, while Miami and District 9 would be on the bottom with head-to-head records of 1-2 and would go to the points-allowed tie-breaker. Here, Miami has a substantial 44-point advantage, so Miami would most likely hold on to the #7 seed.
Those seem to be the worst possible scenarios for Miami losing their final 2 games: dropping to #7, but no lower. There's also a scenario in which Miami could drop their final 2 games and still hold the #4 seed: 3KW would need to lose to Asau, Hogwarts would need to lose to Chicago, Sunday would need to lose to Portland, and District 9 would need to lose to either Graz or Padre. That would put Miami and 3KW tied at 10-6 and everyone else at 9-7 or lower, and Miami owns the tie-breaker over 3KW and would hold the 4-spot.
There are 29 other scenarios that could play out in the event Miami loses their final two games, but in the interests of time I'll just say that they could result in Miami finishing anywhere from #5 to #7.
5.) Three Kingdom Warriors (9-5) - CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT
Game 15: #2 Asau Golden Eagles (12-2) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #12 Bloodweiser Bugle All Stars (4-10) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts, Sunday, District 9; lost to Coxsackie, Miami; 367 points allowed
Coxsackie is highly unlikely to drop their final 2 games against Chicago and Gold Coast, so the best 3KW can really hope for at this point is for Miami to lose their last 2 games and 3KW to upset Asau and win their gimme-game over Bloodweiser. That would put 3KW at 11-5, safely above everyone else for the 4-seed. If Miami splits their final 2 games, then Miami and 3KW would tie at 11-5, and Miami owns the tie-breaker, which would push 3KW down to #5.
But that appears to be the lowest 3KW can go. Even if they lose to Asau, they'd still almost certainly beat Bloodweiser to finish at 10-6. Hogwarts, Sunday, Miami, and/or District 9 could all tie 3KW at 10-6, but 3KW has already defeated Hogwards, Sunday and District 9. So barring a shocking loss to Bloodweiser, 3KW has clinched a top-5 finish.
6.) Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry (8-6)
Game 15: #4 Miami Red Hawks (10-4) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #14 Chicago Hedgehogs (4-10) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated District 9; lost to Three Kingdom, Sunday, Portland; hasn't played Miami yet; 301 points allowed
Hogwarts has reason to be nervous... their earlier loss to Portland means they could be vulnerable if Hogwarts drops their last two games to Miami and Chicago and Portland upsets Sunday and Asau to force a tie at 8-8... not the likliest outcome, but it's World League -- crazy stuff happens here. If Sunday and District 9 each won at least one more game, that would leave Hogwarts and Portland tied, with Portland taking #8 and Hogwarts dropping to #9. If Sunday followed their loss to Portland with a loss to Miami to create a 3-way tie at 8-8, Hogwarts's 0-2 head-to-head record would also push them down to #9, so that's no help. If District 9 lost their games with Graz and Padre to create their own 3-way tie at 8-8, Hogwarts would be in better shape... with everyone's head-to-head records being 1-1, the tie would be broken by points-allowed, where Hogwarts has a 100+ advantage over both teams, so Hogwarts would hold #7. And if Sunday and District 9 both lose their final two games to create a 4-way tie at 8-8, Hogwarts and Sunday would be on the bottom with 1-2 head-to-head records, but Hogwarts has a 48-point advantage over Sunday in points-allowed and would hold the 8-spot.
So, those are the worst-case scenarios for Hogwarts. A single-win for Hogwarts means they can avoid those entirely and clinch a playoff spot. I'm considering Chicago a toss-up game just because they've shown the potential for an upset here, but Hogwarts ought to be able to at least take care of business against Chicago, even if they lose to Miami first.
So how high can Hogwarts go if they beat Chicago and Miami to finish 10-6? No higher than #5, it looks like, and they'd need to catch just the right combination of teams in a multi-team tie.
7.) Sunday Funday (8-6)
Game 15: #9 Portland Rage (6-8) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #4 Miami Red Hawks (10-4) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts; lost to Three Kingdom, District 9; hasn't played Miami or Portland yet; 349 points allowed
Basically, Sunday needs a win or a Portland loss to clinch a playoff spot.
Sunday can save themselves a lot of trouble by just beating Portland in Game 15. Lose, however, and suddenly they're vulnerable... a Portland upset of Asau in Game 16 would mean that Sunday would need to upset Miami in Game 16 to clinch a playoff spot.
If Sunday drops both games to finish 8-8 and Portland follows their win over Sunday with an upset of Asau to also finish 8-8, Portland is in big trouble. A direct tie with just Portland at 8-8 means Portland would take the 8-spot and push Sunday out. Same with a 3-way tie at 8-8 between Sunday, District 9, and Portland (or a 4-way tie with Hogwarts added in). A 3-way tie including Hogwarts instead of District 9 would be better... Sunday's points-allowed advantage over Portland would help Sunday hold the 8-spot then.
The highest possible finish for Sunday appears to be #6, barring a shocking 3KW loss to Bloodweiser. The tie-breakers just don't break right for Sunday to get any higher.
8.) District 9 Prawns (8-6)
Game 15: #1 Graz Grizzlies (14-0) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #11 Padre's Parrish (4-10) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Sunday, Portland; lost to Miami, Three Kingdom, Hogwarts; 427 points allowed
I can only find one scenario in which District 9 can miss the playoffs: they lose to Graz and Padre to finish 8-8, Portland upsets Sunday and Asau to finish 8-8, Hogwarts loses to Miami and Chicago to finish 8-8, and Sunday upsets Miami to finish 9-7. That would create a 3-way tie at 8-8 between District 9, Portland, and Hogwarts, with each team holding a 1-1 head-to-head record. On points-allowed, Portland holds an 11-point advantage over District 9 that would probably be bigger in this scenario, and Hogwarts holds a 126-point advantage over District 9. So, District 9 would be screwed -- they'd drop to #9.
Pretty much any other scenario, even if District 9 loses their last 2 games, still keeps them in the 8-spot thanks to their wins over Sunday and Portland. And of course just one more win by District 9 punches their ticket for the playoffs, though the 7-spot appears to be their ceiling.
9.) Portland Rage (6-8)
Game 15: #7 Sunday Funday (8-6) {TOSS-UP}
Game 16: #2 Asau Golden Eagles (12-2) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts; lost to District 9; hasn't played Sunday yet; 416 points allowed
If Portland loses a game, they're done.
If Portland upsets both Sunday and Asau, they still need help to sneak into the playoffs. Basically, they'd need a scenario in which they tie Hogwarts, Sunday, or both so they can leverage a tie-breaker into the 8-spot. A tie with just District 9 doesn't help at all.
Basically, Portland is a long shot for the playoffs... but they're not dead yet.
