Warrior General Games

First, I'd like to say thank you to my good friend Satchmo-N-Dizzy for providing me with this incredibly easy to use spreadsheet to calculate this stuff. He is truly a mad genius. He's doing all of GLB a huge service by passing it on to one person in each league all across GLB, so you should be seeing these all over the place shortly. The information is top notch. As you know, formatting is a B*tch in these forums, so I apologize if this isn't the easiest to read. Nonetheless, enjoy.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Fortaleza Longhorns 16 0 0 100% 611 55
2 Austin Orangebloods 15 1 0 94% 572 125
3 Compton Cougars 13 3 0 81% 448 209
4 More Cowbells 13 3 0 81% 423 212
5 South Bend Red Raiders 12 4 0 75% 419 216
6 Rocky Mountain Snipers 11 5 0 69% 607 238
7 Panthers Syndicate 10 6 0 63% 296 208
8 Cochabamba Pirates 9 7 0 56% 392 273
9 Mojave Desert Lions 7 9 0 44% 301 290
10 Omaha BA Mofo's 6 10 0 38% 295 355
11 Sout Park ManBearPigs 5 11 0 31% 308 374
12 College Station Aggies 4 12 0 25% 192 336
13 Sacramento South Side Psychos 4 12 0 25% 236 307
14 Dallas Texans 2 14 0 13% 143 553
15 Mile High Mustangs 1 15 0 6% 104 465
16 Austin Extreme 0 16 0 0% 28 1,053



EASTERN CONFERENCE

Rk Team L T % PF PA
1 Las Vegas Flyin' Elves 16 0 0 100% 1,027 23
2 Tricity Cardinals 14 2 0 88% 791 179
3 Slaycity Slayers 13 3 0 81% 643 169
4 Turin Falcons 13 3 0 81% 582 156
5 Colony 195 Defenders 12 4 0 75% 449 220
6 Dirty South Brew Crew 10 6 0 63% 558 278
7 North Shore Sharks 10 6 0 63% 458 257
8 Dayton Goatse 8 8 0 50% 475 333
9 Shelby Bearcats 8 8 0 50% 420 360
10 D.C. Corruption 7 9 0 44% 358 283
11 Chicago Hitmen 6 10 0 38% 384 327
12 Blacksburg Gobblers 5 11 0 31% 198 306
13 Philadelphia Nighmare 3 13 0 19% 151 511
14 Kansas Twisters 2 14 0 13% 111 1,032
15 Middle Tennessee Fightin' Catfish 1 15 0 6% 70 1,016
16 Buffalo Stampede 0 16 0 0% 37 1,239

well done

Nice.

Paul, are the last two columns points for and points against?

Oh, woops. That was a dumb question... the column names are right above it.

It's Monday morning. Too much sun and beer this weekend. Even the giant Red Bull hasn't completely cleared the cobwebs.

This may be stupid as well, but you're going whole season correct? This is obviously homerism, but I strongly believe, that Omaha will win more than 6 games this season! I don't see us dropping from 11 wins to 6 in one season

Originally posted by HSKRCHMPS
This may be stupid as well, but you're going whole season correct? This is obviously homerism, but I strongly believe, that Omaha will win more than 6 games this season! I don't see us dropping from 11 wins to 6 in one season

You know, I agree with you. It could be a user error on my part.

Let me double check the western inputs. I had the East messed up at first too. If you guys see anything else that looks way out of the ordinary, then let me know.

Originally posted by HSKRCHMPS
This may be stupid as well, but you're going whole season correct? This is obviously homerism, but I strongly believe, that Omaha will win more than 6 games this season! I don't see us dropping from 11 wins to 6 in one season

Alright, this is how it has you finishing out:

Sacramento South Side Psychos 17 16
Cochabamba Pirates 16 26
Rocky Mountain Snipers 15 36
Mojave Desert Lions 17 20
Sout Park ManBearPigs 21 24
More Cowbells 12 35
College Station Aggies 23 13
South Bend Red Raiders 10 40
Compton Cougars 10 36

You guys have a quality win over the Syndicate but two bad wins, relative to other teams, that aren't doing so hot right now--the Mile High Mustangs and Dallas Texans. That is dragging you down.

With only 5 games worth of data, the calculations won't be 100% accurate. Within a game or two, it should look more like the final standings. When Satchmo did this for us last season, it was ridiculously accurate after about 8 or 9 games.

Here is his explanation:

Originally posted by Satchmo-N-Dizzy
What is the algorithm?

The algorithm is actually very simple. It uses a comparative analysis of scores across all games to arrive at factors for each team (expressed as a %). The analysis will easily determine the SoS that a team has played to date vs what said team will play over the remainder of the season. It becomes more and more accurate as the season wears on. However, it has no ability to recognize or account for significant changes to rosters (gutting, recruiting) that may occur during the season.

There is far too little data to arrive at a consensus for week 16 games against the other conference, so it is not unusual to see the algorithm arrive at considerably different conclusions based on the perspective. But within a given conference, the results has been impressive thus far.

The concept...

A team 'A' that averages 56 PF and 6 PA is to play a team 'B' that averages 21 PF and 4 PA. How does one determine the better team going in? By looking at those numbers relative to the teams played to date. Team A's average opponent scores 36 ppg while allowing 28. Team B's average opponent scores 24 and allows 7. That means that Team A scores 200% of the norm allowed against its opponents while allowing 17%. Team B also scores 300% but allows only 14%.

Simplified, the algorithm would take Team A's 200% and multiply it by the 4 PA by Team B (8), then take the 17% and multiply it by 21 (3.5). For Team B it would take 300% and multipy it by 6 (18), then the 14% multipled by 56 (8). The algorithm would then resolve these numbers by taking the mean of each result = Team A will score... (8 + 8) / 2 = 8. Team B will score... (3.5 + 18) / 2 = 11.75. The projection picks Team B.

In practice, the algorithm will look at each game played by a team independently. So upward (or downward) trends will not be tempered by league averages. The determined percentage is, in essence, an average. And, of course, the projected score is and average as described above. However, the numbers that drive the analysis are much more volitile. This allows for greater accuracy based on trends and will typically gain in strength during the season.

Thanks Paul. I see how it works, but the fact that we held a lead to a top 2 team (you) until the 4th quarter should tell you that maybe this system could be a little flawed. I don't even want to think about the work you put into this, and I do appreciate it. I just look forward to proving it wrong. To be honest, I see a strong possibility of 2 more losses, and maybe 3, but in a perfect world, we win from here on out!

Hey Paul, can you post the Fortaleza projected scores?

no because yall suck

Originally posted by lc512
Hey Paul, can you post the Fortaleza projected scores?

Sure.

Dallas Texans 79 2
Panthers Syndicate 28 3
Austin Orangebloods 17 6
Sacramento South Side Psychos 41 2
Cochabamba Pirates 37 4
Rocky Mountain Snipers 34 6
Mojave Desert Lions 39 3
Sout Park ManBearPigs 48 3
More Cowbells 26 5

We might have to boost before we play you guys after all.

It also seems that you guys will be giving up quite a few safeties.

I'm thinking the Cowbells will finish closer to 10-6, but 12-4 sounds mighty nice to me...

dammnn i gotta start making some adjustments.... i dont wanna lose 3 games this season!

kemp do mind posting the cougars projected game scores? thanks