Starting with Alpha - Zeta will come later as I get time to work on it.
6 teams I see as locks for the playoffs.
Here's my predicted finish for them, along with predicted records.
#1 Blaze (14-2): They have control of the #1 seed and only one potential playoff team remaining on their schedule.
#2 HHWC/MPHD winner (14-2): I'm not going to make a call on that game, but I am going to predict that the winner also beats Osaka for now. Even if they don't, the winner will hold H2H tiebreakers over the loser and Lincoln and should get the #2 seed.
#3 HHWC/MPHD loser (13-3): There's a scenario where HHWC is the loser, also loses to Osaka, and So Cal beats Lincoln, where So Cal is the #3 seed at 12-4.
#4 Lincoln (13-3): Winner of Lincoln/So Cal should have this spot. I'm predicting Lincoln but it's not a lock.
#5 So Cal BDC (11-5): I don't think Osaka is going to get the wins they need to overtake them in the standings.
#6 Nairobi (10-6): This team isn't one of my 6 locks, but I think they win out and grab the #6 seed.
#7 Osaka (10-6): Brutal schedule remaining but I think they pull one win and end up in the #7 spot with 10 wins.
That leaves just one spot left for the remaining teams, most of whom play each other. I'd say Korb, Wrath, ESL, Hali, Smurfs are all still alive. Krungthep is still technically in it but they have Lincoln/Blaze left and I don't see them winning out.
Without getting into game specifics, I predict the final standings:
Korb (8-8)
Wrath (8-8)
ESL (7-9)
Hali (7-9)
Smurfs (5-11)
With Korb getting the 8 seed by virtue of H2H win against Wrath in week 10.
These predictions mean that anyone getting to 9-7 should feel like they can make it - I think it highly unlikely that three teams, including Nairobi, can get to 9 wins for those last two spots. I'm guessing one 8-8 will make it, and it will come down to tiebreakers.
6 teams I see as locks for the playoffs.
Here's my predicted finish for them, along with predicted records.
#1 Blaze (14-2): They have control of the #1 seed and only one potential playoff team remaining on their schedule.
#2 HHWC/MPHD winner (14-2): I'm not going to make a call on that game, but I am going to predict that the winner also beats Osaka for now. Even if they don't, the winner will hold H2H tiebreakers over the loser and Lincoln and should get the #2 seed.
#3 HHWC/MPHD loser (13-3): There's a scenario where HHWC is the loser, also loses to Osaka, and So Cal beats Lincoln, where So Cal is the #3 seed at 12-4.
#4 Lincoln (13-3): Winner of Lincoln/So Cal should have this spot. I'm predicting Lincoln but it's not a lock.
#5 So Cal BDC (11-5): I don't think Osaka is going to get the wins they need to overtake them in the standings.
#6 Nairobi (10-6): This team isn't one of my 6 locks, but I think they win out and grab the #6 seed.
#7 Osaka (10-6): Brutal schedule remaining but I think they pull one win and end up in the #7 spot with 10 wins.
That leaves just one spot left for the remaining teams, most of whom play each other. I'd say Korb, Wrath, ESL, Hali, Smurfs are all still alive. Krungthep is still technically in it but they have Lincoln/Blaze left and I don't see them winning out.
Without getting into game specifics, I predict the final standings:
Korb (8-8)
Wrath (8-8)
ESL (7-9)
Hali (7-9)
Smurfs (5-11)
With Korb getting the 8 seed by virtue of H2H win against Wrath in week 10.
These predictions mean that anyone getting to 9-7 should feel like they can make it - I think it highly unlikely that three teams, including Nairobi, can get to 9 wins for those last two spots. I'm guessing one 8-8 will make it, and it will come down to tiebreakers.
Wasn't CRR going to coast with no gameplanning to a home playoff game?
