Warrior General Games

Some of you may be starting to notice something about the ratings. As teams get closer and closer to having effectively the same strength of schedule (i.e. the "round robin" comes to a close), the rankings will shake themselves into an order that is based completely on wins and losses. There will be a slight shift after week 16 as each team plays an out of conference game.


..Rank.............Team.Name.............(W-L)....Rating...Change

....1....Grinnell.Pioneers.............(14- 0)..0.9044...-.0162
....2....Las.Vegas.Super.Bears.........(14- 0)..0.8993...-.0089
....3....Samoa.Gangsters...............(13- 1)..0.8646...-.0134
....4....Washington.Steroid.lovers.....(12- 2)..0.8160...+.0165
....5....Orlando.Prime.Timers..........(12- 1)..0.8158...+.0114
....6....Northbrook.Nightmare..........(11- 3)..0.7273...+.0158
....7....Melbourne.Assassins...........(10- 3)..0.7203...+.0198
....8....Wollongong.Hippos.............(11- 3)..0.7118...+.0065
....9....Portland.Rain.................(10- 4)..0.6736...-.0009
...10....Danish.Contract.Killers.......(9 - 5)..0.6301...+.0234
...11....Darwin.Devils.................(9 - 5)..0.6283...+.0041
...12....Papeete.Bulldogs..............(8 - 6)..0.5648...-.0294
...13....FantasyFootball.com.Inmates...(8 - 6)..0.5625...-.0182
...14....Tasmania.Devils...............(8 - 6)..0.5625...+.0311
...15....Aussie.Slamers................(8 - 6)..0.5486...-.0323
...16....Fiji.Ventures.................(8 - 6)..0.5398...-.0217
...17....New.Caledonia.Cows............(8 - 6)..0.5346...-.0335
...18....Perth.Pirates.................(8 - 6)..0.5294...-.0248
...19....Cagayan.Vindicators...........(6 - 8)..0.4375...+.0278
...20....Canberra.Roos.................(6 - 8)..0.4375...+.0213
...21....Eastern.Savages...............(4 -10)..0.3419...+.0450
...22....Sydney.Bloomin.Onions.........(4 -10)..0.3368...-.0273
...23....Amarillo.Super.Frogs..........(4 -10)..0.3027...+.0102
...24....Jakarta.Typhoons..............(4 -10)..0.3021...-.0052
...25....Brisbane.Bombers..............(3 -11)..0.2847...-.0240
...26....Hamilton.Mustangs.............(3 -11)..0.2743...+.0101
...27....Guam.Tigers...................(2 -11)..0.2221...+.0062
...28....Hawaiian.Warriors.............(2 -12)..0.1926...-.0324
...29....Buffalo.Bison.................(1 -13)..0.1597...+.0151
...30....Firmament.Mystic.Prophets.....(1 -12)..0.1578...-.0406
...31....Pocatello.Predators...........(1 -13)..0.1285...+.0019
...32....Newcastle.Jaguars.............(0 -14)..0.0919...-.0334

our rating went down... (grinnell), does that mean we should have won by more??

Originally posted by Geoffers
our rating went down... (grinnell), does that mean we should have won by more??

It simply means your strength of schedule went down. Assuming you and Las Vegas both win next week, I think you're going to be tied since every team will have played every team. I might be wrong in that aspect, but the formula he uses is based on wins and strength of schedule, not strength of victory.

Originally posted by Geoffers
our rating went down... (grinnell), does that mean we should have won by more??
No, it means that the teams that you already played lost more than they won this week.

Originally posted by drzoidberg
Originally posted by Geoffers

our rating went down... (grinnell), does that mean we should have won by more??

It simply means your strength of schedule went down. Assuming you and Las Vegas both win next week, I think you're going to be tied since every team will have played every team. I might be wrong in that aspect, but the formula he uses is based on wins and strength of schedule, not strength of victory.

Exactly, as this ranking method is based on past performance and is not really a predictor of future performance, in a round robin situation where every team ends up playing every other team, at the end of the season everyone's strength of schedule is the same, therefore the rankings simply become based on wins and losses.

Just for fun, I'm looking into ways to adjust the rankings based on various other factors for next season.

LOL we're up Orlando by .0002, that's classic

up again! go eastern!

....7....Melbourne.Assassins...........(10- 3)..0.7203...+.0198
....8....Wollongong.Hippos.............(11- 3)..0.7118...+.0065

LOL at this. An extra win yet still below them.

Originally posted by tisichase
....7....Melbourne.Assassins...........(10- 3)..0.7203...+.0198
....8....Wollongong.Hippos.............(11- 3)..0.7118...+.0065

LOL at this. An extra win yet still below them.

I think it's because you had a grind-it-out battle with a 4-10 team. Gotta admit, was a great game though. Nice to know we're improving this much.

it helps that we tied with a (then) undefeated team. btw, u are also in a dif conference, ever give thought to the fact that our strength of sched might be harder? its not about wins and losses entirely, its about opponent wins and losses after your game with a team as well. so that game you plays at the start of the season helps determine this.

Originally posted by justin5745
it helps that we tied with a (then) undefeated team. btw, u are also in a dif conference, ever give thought to the fact that our strength of sched might be harder? its not about wins and losses entirely, its about opponent wins and losses after your game with a team as well. so that game you plays at the start of the season helps determine this.
The potential difference in the conference's strength of schedule is miniscule, as the only possible difference is in the number of ties that occurred in the conference. After tomorrow, every team will have practically the same strength of schedule, regardless of conference.

Originally posted by Mornacale
Originally posted by justin5745

it helps that we tied with a (then) undefeated team. btw, u are also in a dif conference, ever give thought to the fact that our strength of sched might be harder? its not about wins and losses entirely, its about opponent wins and losses after your game with a team as well. so that game you plays at the start of the season helps determine this.
The potential difference in the conference's strength of schedule is miniscule, as the only possible difference is in the number of ties that occurred in the conference. After tomorrow, every team will have practically the same strength of schedule, regardless of conference.

^

well, there ya go. you answered your own question. we have a tie.

and plus, looking at your conference. we have winning teams till the 11th spot. yours has winning teams till the 9th. hows the minuscule?

Originally posted by justin5745
well, there ya go. you answered your own question. we have a tie.

and plus, looking at your conference. we have winning teams till the 11th spot. yours has winning teams till the 9th. hows the minuscule?

What point are you trying to make? You had a couple of stronger teams to play, sure, but the 6 last place teams in your conference are worse than the 6 last place teams in Zeta. Or we could say that Zeta has 5 teams with 10+ wins while Alpha only has 4.

We can play "pull the magical number out of our hat" all day. You can prove whatever point you want, and anyone else could prove whatever point they want. ALL that matters is who wins in the playoffs. Power rankings are nice and fun, but they don't say when one team is or is not better.

i think the obvious thing here is there is more parity in Alpha, whereas Zeta is pretty much filtered down correctly by seeding. Which may or may not be an abberation by how much Samoa did improve since game one.