Week 11 is already here. That means we have just 6 games left. It is amazing how quickly the season has gone. But, there is still time for teams to make their moves to earn a position in the playoffs.
I have created a new analysis for comparing the strengths of the teams. There is one number for a team’s offense and one for a team’s defense and one that is a team overall rating. The offense power rating is the number of points your teams scores every 100 offensive plays. The defense power rating is the number of points your team allows the opponents to score every 100 defensive plays. The overall power rating is the offensive power rating – defensive power rating. I’ll post the numbers here before we get into today’s predictions.
Offensive Power Ranking
1. DECATUR STALEYS (90.68)
2. Devonport Devils (68.22)
3. Honolulu Skulls (66.97)
4. Christmas Islanders (66.38)
5. Komodo Dragons (64.29)
6. Fiji Rage (48.18)
7. Dunedin Drones (44.92)
8. Alaska Wild (40.74)
9. Port Moresby Scallywags (40.49)
10. Rochester Iroquois (39.76)
11. An Album Cover (38.70)
12. Dayton Gunslingers (31.76)
13. Samoa Savages (30.05)
14. Ayers Rock Krakens (28.73)
15. Lexington Armada (11.53)
16. Suva Sparks (1.29)
Defensive Power Rankings
1. Honolulu Skulls (11.76)
2. DECATUR STALEYS (12.81)
3. Christmas Islanders (12.81)
4. Komodo Dragons (19.93)
5. Devonport Devils (27.22)
6. Alaska Wild (27.84)
7. Port Moresby Scallywags (29.51)
8. Fiji Rage (29.63)
9. Samoa Savages (31.68)
10. Rochester Iroquois (40.34)
11. An Album Cover (42.28)
12. Dunedin Drones (43.87)
13. Ayers Rock Krakens (49.88)
14. Dayton Gunslingers (50.26)
15. Lexington Armada (83.84)
16. Suva Spraks (164.72)
Overall Power Rankings
1. DECATUR STALEYS (77.87)
2. Honolulu Skulls (55.21)
3. Christmas Islanders (47.97)
4. Komodo Dragons (44.36)
5. Devonport Devils (41.00)
6. Fiji Rage (18.55)
7. Alaska Wild (12.90)
8. Port Moresby Scallywags (10.98)
9. Dunedin Drones (1.06)
10. Rochester Iroquois (-0.58)
11. Samoa Savages (-1.63)
12. An Album Cover (-3.58)
13. Dayton Gunslingers (-18.50)
14. Ayers Rock Krakens (-21.15)
15. Lexington Armada (-72.30)
16. Suva Sparks (-163.43)
I don’t know that these are of any use, but since I wasted the time to figure them out, I figured I would post them here for you all to slash. They probably need a factor to adjust each based on the opponents, but it wasn’t that sophisticated yet. On to the games!
DECATUR STALEYS (9-1) vs Fiji Rage (6-4)
So DECATUR has established themselves as one of the top two teams and therefore one of the favorites to make it to the conference championship game. So what do they do? Well, they are the top team in passing TDs with 38, led by Wayne Reznik and Brady Keith with 13 and 12 TDs. But that is not all they do, they are also 2nd best team in rushing TDs with 47, behind Emmitt Duckets (25) and Rohn Jiggins (22). So they are just pretty dominant overall on offense. Will Fiji be able to stop them? Fiji had a great start to the season, but so far have been unable to prove they are really in the same league as the top teams. Their two contests against very good teams didn’t go well, as Port Moresby beat them 65-13 and Honolulu beat them 58-9. Will this be their day? I kind of doubt it. They would have to have unbelievable showings by both their defense and offense and have some good luck with the sim. Even if they make a great showing, they are still too far behind the STALEYS to pull an upset. The score should be something like 70-10.
Honolulu Skulls (9-1) vs Alaska Wild (6-4)
The other dominant team in Zeta this season is the Skulls. They have a great offense too, led by QB Terrell "The Terror" Pryor (with 38 TD passes and only 1 interception!)and HB Paul Hornung Jr (nearing 1700 combined yards and 32 TDs already). As good as their offense is, their defense is what dominates. They have only allowed 109 points so far this season. Even the STALEYS at 134 points allowed can’t compete with that. Alaska has been doing very well this season after struggling through the previous two years. They are not a dominant team like the Skulls, but the Wild just finds ways to win. They have really only been out of the one game against Port Moresby. Will they be able to stay with Honolulu and pull a surprise upset? Just as in Fiji’s case, I don’t think this game is close enough for an upset, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Alaska at least keeps this one respectable. Honolulu will win by a safe margin, 55-13.
Christmas Islanders (8-2) vs Port Moresby Scallywags (7-3)
This is a great match-up. The Islanders have come into AA and haven’t missed a beat as they have solidly proved they are one of the top teams. In fact, they are the only A team that has been able to make a really significant showing. They are led by their offense and the tandem rushing attack of Marshall Smith and J Breezy. After their first two games, no team has been able to slow down Christmas’ offense and keep them under 27 points. Port Moresby is a returning AA team that has made significant improvements and are a definite contender this season. They have done very well, but were not able to upset either Honolulu or DECATUR. Are they strong enough to take down the Islanders? This game definitely has playoff ranking implications as both teams are fighting for one of those top 4 spots to get the home game in the playoffs. The Scallywags have a strong rushing attack that is averaging 5.5 yards/attempt. But they also have a strong tackling defense that has forced 15 fumbles (3rd most). Will one of those forced fumbles be the difference in this game? It could be. Straight-up, I think Christmas has the advantage, but this game is not out-of-reach of an upset. A slight slip up in game planning or one of those famous Scallywag steals may be all it takes. In the end, I think Christmas shows they really are that good and win by 14, 27-13.
Komodo Dragons (8-2) vs Lexington Cruise Lines (0-10)
Komodo is for real and will be fighting until the end. Of the season that is, not this game. In fact there won’t be any fight as they get to take the cruise this week. Sorry for the short write-up, but you have to play an opponent to actually get much press. Komodo by 72, 85-13.
Devonport Devils (6-4) vs Samoa Savages (5-5)
Devonport is slowly climbing their way up the rankings after a very difficult start. According to the ratings above, they should be around that 5th spot, so should be able to handle Samoa. But if you look at the match-up between these two teams, they are basically even. Samoa had a slide early in the season, but have managed to get their feet under themselves and keep themselves in contention for the playoffs. This is a key game for them – for both teams. A win for either team makes a playoff berth very likely. A loss, especially for the Savages, puts that in question. Because of the strengths of the teams, this game should be pretty even, but because of how each has played so far this year, I will give the edge to the Devils. Devonport by 11 over Samoa, 35-24.
An Album Cover (5-5) vs Dunedin Drones (4-6)
An Album Cover is always a scary team to me whenever we play. They are a solid team with solid management. Rarely will they shot themselves in the foot. Instead, they will always be right there in case you make a mistake. They are one of the teams on the bubble for the playoff picture and need to take every game possible. Dunedin is the second best team of the A teams. They are solid and compete in each game. They are just a little overpowered by some of the old AA teams, but this will be a game where they have a chance at an upset. They still have an outside chance at making the playoffs, but they will have to win today’s game to keep those hopes alive. This will be a close one. In the end, I give the edge to the AAC defense and their management team to make this a victory and keep them in the running for the playoffs. An Album Cover by 9, 30-21.
Ayers Rock Krakens (3-7) vs Rochester Iroquois (2-8)
Ayer Rock has played hard this season and put up good fights against Fiji and Alaska, but it has proved pretty hard going for them in AA. Rochester was one of the playoff teams last year in AA and was expected to be in that number again this season. But they faltered early and lost games they should have won. However, in the last couple of weeks, the Iroquois are starting to improve their play again and will be a challenge for teams the rest of the way. Even though Ayers Rock has the better record, Rochester has the more talented team. If the Iroquois play up to their potential, they will win this contest. After losing their last three by 3, 2, 1, Rochester is ready to launch into the win column with a victory over Ayers Rock by 14, 35-21.
Dayton Gumslingers (1-9) vs Suva Sparklets (0-16)
Dayton gets to flex their muscles and notch win number 2 this week as they play the Suva squad. The Sparklets will be plead no contest after the first drive by the Gumslingers. As I said in another post, when Dayton wins their second game (not counting Suva), I’ll return their mascot to them. Until that time, they have brought in a slingshot and Bubble Yum to put in their holster. Dayton wins this one by 75, 85-10.
That’s it for week #11. Let’s see how it all works out!
I have created a new analysis for comparing the strengths of the teams. There is one number for a team’s offense and one for a team’s defense and one that is a team overall rating. The offense power rating is the number of points your teams scores every 100 offensive plays. The defense power rating is the number of points your team allows the opponents to score every 100 defensive plays. The overall power rating is the offensive power rating – defensive power rating. I’ll post the numbers here before we get into today’s predictions.
Offensive Power Ranking
1. DECATUR STALEYS (90.68)
2. Devonport Devils (68.22)
3. Honolulu Skulls (66.97)
4. Christmas Islanders (66.38)
5. Komodo Dragons (64.29)
6. Fiji Rage (48.18)
7. Dunedin Drones (44.92)
8. Alaska Wild (40.74)
9. Port Moresby Scallywags (40.49)
10. Rochester Iroquois (39.76)
11. An Album Cover (38.70)
12. Dayton Gunslingers (31.76)
13. Samoa Savages (30.05)
14. Ayers Rock Krakens (28.73)
15. Lexington Armada (11.53)
16. Suva Sparks (1.29)
Defensive Power Rankings
1. Honolulu Skulls (11.76)
2. DECATUR STALEYS (12.81)
3. Christmas Islanders (12.81)
4. Komodo Dragons (19.93)
5. Devonport Devils (27.22)
6. Alaska Wild (27.84)
7. Port Moresby Scallywags (29.51)
8. Fiji Rage (29.63)
9. Samoa Savages (31.68)
10. Rochester Iroquois (40.34)
11. An Album Cover (42.28)
12. Dunedin Drones (43.87)
13. Ayers Rock Krakens (49.88)
14. Dayton Gunslingers (50.26)
15. Lexington Armada (83.84)
16. Suva Spraks (164.72)
Overall Power Rankings
1. DECATUR STALEYS (77.87)
2. Honolulu Skulls (55.21)
3. Christmas Islanders (47.97)
4. Komodo Dragons (44.36)
5. Devonport Devils (41.00)
6. Fiji Rage (18.55)
7. Alaska Wild (12.90)
8. Port Moresby Scallywags (10.98)
9. Dunedin Drones (1.06)
10. Rochester Iroquois (-0.58)
11. Samoa Savages (-1.63)
12. An Album Cover (-3.58)
13. Dayton Gunslingers (-18.50)
14. Ayers Rock Krakens (-21.15)
15. Lexington Armada (-72.30)
16. Suva Sparks (-163.43)
I don’t know that these are of any use, but since I wasted the time to figure them out, I figured I would post them here for you all to slash. They probably need a factor to adjust each based on the opponents, but it wasn’t that sophisticated yet. On to the games!
DECATUR STALEYS (9-1) vs Fiji Rage (6-4)
So DECATUR has established themselves as one of the top two teams and therefore one of the favorites to make it to the conference championship game. So what do they do? Well, they are the top team in passing TDs with 38, led by Wayne Reznik and Brady Keith with 13 and 12 TDs. But that is not all they do, they are also 2nd best team in rushing TDs with 47, behind Emmitt Duckets (25) and Rohn Jiggins (22). So they are just pretty dominant overall on offense. Will Fiji be able to stop them? Fiji had a great start to the season, but so far have been unable to prove they are really in the same league as the top teams. Their two contests against very good teams didn’t go well, as Port Moresby beat them 65-13 and Honolulu beat them 58-9. Will this be their day? I kind of doubt it. They would have to have unbelievable showings by both their defense and offense and have some good luck with the sim. Even if they make a great showing, they are still too far behind the STALEYS to pull an upset. The score should be something like 70-10.
Honolulu Skulls (9-1) vs Alaska Wild (6-4)
The other dominant team in Zeta this season is the Skulls. They have a great offense too, led by QB Terrell "The Terror" Pryor (with 38 TD passes and only 1 interception!)and HB Paul Hornung Jr (nearing 1700 combined yards and 32 TDs already). As good as their offense is, their defense is what dominates. They have only allowed 109 points so far this season. Even the STALEYS at 134 points allowed can’t compete with that. Alaska has been doing very well this season after struggling through the previous two years. They are not a dominant team like the Skulls, but the Wild just finds ways to win. They have really only been out of the one game against Port Moresby. Will they be able to stay with Honolulu and pull a surprise upset? Just as in Fiji’s case, I don’t think this game is close enough for an upset, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Alaska at least keeps this one respectable. Honolulu will win by a safe margin, 55-13.
Christmas Islanders (8-2) vs Port Moresby Scallywags (7-3)
This is a great match-up. The Islanders have come into AA and haven’t missed a beat as they have solidly proved they are one of the top teams. In fact, they are the only A team that has been able to make a really significant showing. They are led by their offense and the tandem rushing attack of Marshall Smith and J Breezy. After their first two games, no team has been able to slow down Christmas’ offense and keep them under 27 points. Port Moresby is a returning AA team that has made significant improvements and are a definite contender this season. They have done very well, but were not able to upset either Honolulu or DECATUR. Are they strong enough to take down the Islanders? This game definitely has playoff ranking implications as both teams are fighting for one of those top 4 spots to get the home game in the playoffs. The Scallywags have a strong rushing attack that is averaging 5.5 yards/attempt. But they also have a strong tackling defense that has forced 15 fumbles (3rd most). Will one of those forced fumbles be the difference in this game? It could be. Straight-up, I think Christmas has the advantage, but this game is not out-of-reach of an upset. A slight slip up in game planning or one of those famous Scallywag steals may be all it takes. In the end, I think Christmas shows they really are that good and win by 14, 27-13.
Komodo Dragons (8-2) vs Lexington Cruise Lines (0-10)
Komodo is for real and will be fighting until the end. Of the season that is, not this game. In fact there won’t be any fight as they get to take the cruise this week. Sorry for the short write-up, but you have to play an opponent to actually get much press. Komodo by 72, 85-13.
Devonport Devils (6-4) vs Samoa Savages (5-5)
Devonport is slowly climbing their way up the rankings after a very difficult start. According to the ratings above, they should be around that 5th spot, so should be able to handle Samoa. But if you look at the match-up between these two teams, they are basically even. Samoa had a slide early in the season, but have managed to get their feet under themselves and keep themselves in contention for the playoffs. This is a key game for them – for both teams. A win for either team makes a playoff berth very likely. A loss, especially for the Savages, puts that in question. Because of the strengths of the teams, this game should be pretty even, but because of how each has played so far this year, I will give the edge to the Devils. Devonport by 11 over Samoa, 35-24.
An Album Cover (5-5) vs Dunedin Drones (4-6)
An Album Cover is always a scary team to me whenever we play. They are a solid team with solid management. Rarely will they shot themselves in the foot. Instead, they will always be right there in case you make a mistake. They are one of the teams on the bubble for the playoff picture and need to take every game possible. Dunedin is the second best team of the A teams. They are solid and compete in each game. They are just a little overpowered by some of the old AA teams, but this will be a game where they have a chance at an upset. They still have an outside chance at making the playoffs, but they will have to win today’s game to keep those hopes alive. This will be a close one. In the end, I give the edge to the AAC defense and their management team to make this a victory and keep them in the running for the playoffs. An Album Cover by 9, 30-21.
Ayers Rock Krakens (3-7) vs Rochester Iroquois (2-8)
Ayer Rock has played hard this season and put up good fights against Fiji and Alaska, but it has proved pretty hard going for them in AA. Rochester was one of the playoff teams last year in AA and was expected to be in that number again this season. But they faltered early and lost games they should have won. However, in the last couple of weeks, the Iroquois are starting to improve their play again and will be a challenge for teams the rest of the way. Even though Ayers Rock has the better record, Rochester has the more talented team. If the Iroquois play up to their potential, they will win this contest. After losing their last three by 3, 2, 1, Rochester is ready to launch into the win column with a victory over Ayers Rock by 14, 35-21.
Dayton Gumslingers (1-9) vs Suva Sparklets (0-16)
Dayton gets to flex their muscles and notch win number 2 this week as they play the Suva squad. The Sparklets will be plead no contest after the first drive by the Gumslingers. As I said in another post, when Dayton wins their second game (not counting Suva), I’ll return their mascot to them. Until that time, they have brought in a slingshot and Bubble Yum to put in their holster. Dayton wins this one by 75, 85-10.
That’s it for week #11. Let’s see how it all works out!
