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griffin8r
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Lot of action here, we're now down to 7 undefeated teams.Lot of shuffling up and down the board, and there will be plenty of controversy, no doubt. Athens made good on their promise to knock off the Stars, but still find themselves chasing the two top teams in Alpha. Krakow made a move up the board, many of which here will claim is the product of a soft schedule to start the season - although this week's surge was actually more triggered by their scouting bar moving up from 48 to 51. Not much going on at the bottom of the board, other than Everett looking to be a shoe-in for first team cut off the ranking for being in negative numbers...

Upwardly Mobile: Winchester Bandits, pick up 6 spots after grabbing their first win of the season from winless Bratislava.

In free-fall: The Stars and Sabotage tie for this dubious honor, each losing 6 spots after being knocked out of the ranks of the undefeated. At least the Stars can smile and say "we lost to an unbeaten, and only by 19..."

Without further ado, here are your Week 3 power ranks.

1) Kiev Flames (104.24) +1
2) Diaper Vipers (102.64) -1
3) Athens Olympians (98.26) +1
4) Krakow Calvary (93.94) +5
5) Texas City Storm (91.46) +2
6) Leningrad Iron Fists (91.42) --
7) Ofdensen's Army (91.36) +1
8) Chernobil Stalkers (86.38) +3
9) Sopron Stars (84.97) -6
10) Rampage ZETA (82.21) +3
11) Warsaw Sabotage (80.19) -6
12) Victorious Secret (78.9) +4
13) Rampage ALPHA (77.29) +2
14) Saratov Scoregasm (73.94) +3
15) Donetsk Hammers (73.44) -5
16) Crete Minotaurs (71.57) -4
17) Kaufbeuren Knights (68.66) +4
18) Teutonic Knights (65.88) -4
19) Riga Raptors (64.11) +5
20) Winchester Bandits (60.56) +6
21) Chernobyl Aftermath (58.39) -3
22) Bisons Sentinels (55.27) -3
23) Ledeberg Zeppelins (52.89) -3
24) Bergen Storm (52.86) +5
25) NFL Fanatix (52.44) -3
26) Bratislava Zabijaks (49.55) -3
27) Szolnok Soldiers (49.02) -2
28) Chernobyl Fallout (45.00) -1
29) John Madden's AMT (38.41) -1
30) Chucktown Panthers (34.06) --
31) Grodno Pirates (32.64) --
32) Everett Wildcats (4.03) --

 
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It was us who guaranteed to knock off the stars but nice job this week. Althought I think there is a way from stopping teams like krakow from climbing up the latter when they are clearly not on the same level as the teams they are around. You need to take the emphasis off of chemistry bars (the reason you noted for krakow's climb) and put way more stock in the rank of the team they beat. For instance, Ofdensen has won 2 games against top 10 teams according to your rankings where as Krakow has wins against the 25,28,and 31 ranked team. I would think wins would be a higher priority than scouting bars.
 
griffin8r
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Originally posted by Mindfreak
You need to take the emphasis off of chemistry bars (the reason you noted for krakow's climb)


No, I said their scouting bar went up - from 48 to 51. I told you, Chemistry is only a maximum of 25 points in this formula, where Scouting is 1:1.

Originally posted by
and put way more stock in the rank of the team they beat. For instance, Ofdensen has won 2 games against top 10 teams according to your rankings where as Krakow has wins against the 25,28,and 31 ranked team.


I'm trying to figure out a way to sort this. It's challenging, doing it on a spreadsheet, because of the volatility of rankings and trying to auto-track them without fouling up the actual sheet. Plugging the rankings into the formula affects the outcome of the formula, which means it's suddenly in an infinite loop...



 
JerryRice
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Athens still 2 spots too low, imo
 
griffin8r
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You may recall I mentioned last week that I still haven't figured out a way to fix the whole blowout problem. A team that crushes a pushover is inevitably going to score more points for that victory than a team that wins a squeaker against a top-flight team. I really just don't know how to fix this problem (and, ultimately, it's a division-by-zero problem)
 
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although this week's surge was actually more triggered by their scouting bar moving up from 48 to 51


This clearly shows that you put to much emphasis on it.
 
griffin8r
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Originally posted by Mindfreak
although this week's surge was actually more triggered by their scouting bar moving up from 48 to 51


This clearly shows that you put to much emphasis on it.


Look at the separation between #4 and #7. < 3 points. Other than removing the scouting bar altogether (which will actually hurt most of the top teams) I don't have a way to mitigate a 3 point shift....
Last edited Mar 2, 2009 09:53:27
 
griffin8r
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I'm still sitting here baking my brain on this, guys. How do you deal with a huge margin of victory without completely removing it from the equation? I have the game points chained to the opponent scout bar and their W/L record - but this early, that really doesn't make enough of an impact to fix the fact that one team won by 255 while the other won by 19.
 
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Last edited Mar 2, 2009 10:15:39
 
griffin8r
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I think I might have just found the answer to my conundrum.

You tell me: Is this a more ACCURATE power ranking, based on your collective views of the league? Please note: The spread is going to be a LOT bigger here, because I de-weighted margin on the wins, but did not on losses (in my view, if you get blown out, you get blown out, no matter how much better the team was that did it to you)....

1) Flames (129.88)
2) Olympians (125.37)
3) Vipers (123.25)
4) Army (110.67)
5) Stalkers (108.92)
6) Stars (105.14)
7) Calvary (104.13)
8) Rampage Zeta (102.29)
9) Iron Fists (96.94)
10) Storm (94.92)
11) Secret (83.87)
12) Minotaurs (77.05)
13) Sabotage (74.06)
14) Hammers (68.27)
15) Rampage Alpha (68.08)
16) Scoregasm (66.02)
17) Knights (64.33)
18) Aftermath (60.45)
19) Raptors (56.14)
20) Knights (49.18)
21) Bandits (43.75)
22) Zabijaks (29.75)
23) Soldiers (28.90)
24) Storm (20.06)
25) Sentinals (7.74)
26) Fanatix (2.42)
27) Zeppelins (1.94)

(cuts off 5 teams in the negative)

Please, don't let your team bias affect your opinion here. Just look at it and tell me if it squares better with how you perceive team strength.
 
JerryRice
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No. Olympians still too low.

Dude I'm just fuckin with ya, don't get worked up about it and change your system. When we go undefeated everything will balance out.
 
griffin8r
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Originally posted by JerryRice
No. Olympians still too low.

Dude I'm just fuckin with ya, don't get worked up about it and change your system. When we go undefeated everything will balance out.


Well, I knew there were flaws, bro. I just had to spend some time figuring out how to fix them. This thing has been revised each week so far, to fix anomalies.

It's still a bit broken for super-tight games (<10 point margin of victory) but it's close enough now where teams don't get rewarded for beating up on dregs.
Last edited Mar 2, 2009 11:17:56
 
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Thats pretty good. I was thinking about it and I thought of a solution--sort of. Divide margine of victory by how many losses the team has. So if you beat a 0-3 team by 60 points its really only the equivalent of beating a better team by 20 points.
 
griffin8r
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Originally posted by Mindfreak
Thats pretty good. I was thinking about it and I thought of a solution--sort of. Divide margine of victory by how many losses the team has. So if you beat a 0-3 team by 60 points its really only the equivalent of beating a better team by 20 points.


I tried that angle - it still doesn't get a 255-0 beatdown on an 0-3 anywhere near a 4 point win over a 2-1 team.

The formula I'm using right now is a bit more complex than that, out of necessity. It goes like this:

Margin of Victory / (60 - opponent's scouting bar) * (opponent's win total + 1)

I chose 60 because it's exactly 3 points higher than the highest scouting bars in the league.
Last edited Mar 2, 2009 11:21:10
 
FlatheadCat
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Originally posted by
At least the Stars can smile and say "we lost to an unbeaten, and only by 19..."


 
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