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Forum > Europe East AA Leagues > Europe East AA #4 > Playoff round 3 Projections
Griffmann
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Well I missed the earlier rounds, but incredibly, the top 4 seeds all won in round 1, and then the top 2 seeds all won in round 2. I think this is one of the first times I've seen that happen. So let's see what we have left for round 3.

Chernobyl v. NISSA

NISSA RPI .605
Chernobyl RPI .603

NISSA won their week 9 contest 47-38... with Chernobyl leading by 15 and 18 minutes left, NISSA scores the last 24 points of the game, including 2 TD's in the last 2.5 minutes. Losing to Lisbon in week 16 gave NISSA the more difficult path in the playoffs, but they've steamrolled through the Impalers and Thrashers by a combined margin of 95 pts. Clearly, these 2 teams were a step above the rest of Alpha and it's a rematch no one is surprised to see. Chernobyl was a 3 point favorite in their first meeting, and it took a miracle finish by NISSA to pull off the win. This time, we can look at their recent games against Lisbon and the Thrashers, both of which Chernobyl showed much more domination than NISSA. I'd set the spread at Chernobyl -6.

Pythons v. Wolverines

Pythons RPI .625
Wolverines RPI .597

Pythons beat the Wolverines pretty handily 45-20 in week 5, and continued to run through a nearly flawless season, and have the highest RPI in both conferences. The Wolverines started slow, but finished with a hot streak of tough wins that continues into the playoffs. I think the difference here will be balance. The Wolverines rely heavily on their ball control ground game, outpacing the 2nd ranked team in run yards by almost 1000. However, the Pythons can beat you on both sides, ranking 3rd in both passing and running, and should put up 30+ in this matchup. The Wolverines will need to keep this game much closer than the first time (where it was 21-7 after the 1st qtr) so that their offense can dictate the pace. I don't see a 25 pt blowout this time, but I'd open with Pythons -10.
Last edited Feb 5, 2009 12:05:05
 
dawkinseffect
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you forgot to add that the Wolverines have revenge on their mind..every play off game lose has been to the Pythons.

its like they are the Patriots and we are the Colts haha
Last edited Feb 5, 2009 13:32:24
 
VietCampo
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Chargers and Colts sound better.
 
Griffmann
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I've pointed out earlier that this season is the best chance the Wolverines had at redemption, and to make their statement. Right now, your history book is pretty empty. I won't be completely surprised if you do pull off the upset, but cutting their win margin by more than half is already a pretty big jump for me. Most likely, more than the top 2 league teams will move up to AAA, but you don't want to ride the Pythons coattails in another league jump.

Don't jump ahead of yourselves on the already-won-a-championship Colts yet... right now, you're more like the Chargers
 
dawkinseffect
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well I'm talking about the early years...you know when Manning was Brady's bitch for a few seasons until the Colts finally stopped chocking.
 
wheatrich
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I'll take both covering and winning outright. I've blown that calculator at least 7 points with my team not caring at all about random regular season games.
Last edited Feb 6, 2009 01:11:39
 
Bowens
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Chernobyl and Nissa were obviously a step ahead of all the rest of us in Alpha.

But I think Zeta is top to bottom the better conference.
 
wheatrich
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you don't have to say think the zeta teams are all blowing out the alpha teams in the scrims for the most part (though none of us are caring or trying for any of those games obviously)

Kinda annoying for my team as I think we'd match up pretty well vs most teams in the alpha conference this season. Oh well it's next season mode anyway for us.
 
Griffmann
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Originally posted by Bowens
Chernobyl and Nissa were obviously a step ahead of all the rest of us in Alpha.

But I think Zeta is top to bottom the better conference.

I'd agree. I think the final RPI ratings...

Pythons .625
NISSA .605
Chernobyl .603
Wolverines .597

...are also pretty accurate.

NISSA reached the finals with an average margin of victory of 42.5. Chernobyl by 24.5. In Zeta, the Wolverines avg 19 per win, and the Pythons 10.5. Counting all of the games, Alpha avg'd a 28.3 pt difference per game, and Zeta 8.8. You can make a pretty strong case from those numbers that Zeta playoff teams - overall - are much stronger than the Alpha playoff teams, if we assume the RPI numbers are not completely off.

Of course, that speaks mostly about the conference as a whole. How these top 4 teams compare with each other... well we'll find out soon enough

 
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Originally posted by wheatrich
you don't have to say think the zeta teams are all blowing out the alpha teams in the scrims for the most part (though none of us are caring or trying for any of those games obviously)

Kinda annoying for my team as I think we'd match up pretty well vs most teams in the alpha conference this season. Oh well it's next season mode anyway for us.


We would still beat ya wheatie .
 
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I bet we can hang with you next year Bob
 


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