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Forum > Pacific Pro League > Oceania Conference > Beatpaths Power Rankings - Week 8
Mornacale
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(DISCLAIMER: I did not invent Beatpaths and I do not own the idea or any of the algorithms used here--I've simply did some reverse-engineering of the code. All credit goes to the good people at www.beatpaths.com.)

HERE WE GO STEELERS HERE WE GO *clap clap*
Text file glory: http://www.mornacale.com/beatpaths/OProPR8.txt

Oceania Pro
Week 8
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Rank | Team Name | Record | BeatPower|Change
1t. Brisbane Heat (8-0) 100.0 +0
1t. Mean Machine (8-0) 100.0 +0
1t. West Scranton Invaders (8-0) 100.0 +0
4. So Cal BDC (7-1) 85.0 +1
5t. Cascade Cajun Crushers (7-1) 80.0 +1
5t. Cook Island Convicts (7-1) 80.0 +2
7. Tonga Ikale Tahi (7-1) 77.0 -3
8. Banzai Pipeline 'Nites (7-1) 75.0 +0
9. Vanuatu Kava Sharks (5-3) 66.0 +1
10. Orlando Prime Timers (6-2) 64.0 -1
11. Mata-Utu Voodoo (6-2) 61.0 +1
12. Playboy's Players Club (5-3) 61.0 -1
13. Papua New Guinea Cannibals (6-2) 44.0 +1
14. Fakaofo Bomb Squad (3-5) 23.0 +2
15. Firmament Mystic Prophets (4-4) 46.0 -2
16. Melbourne Thorny Devils (4-4) 44.0 +1
17. Samoa Gangsters (4-4) 0.0 +1
18. Canberra Strike (4-4) -9.0 +8
19. Brisbane Gods (1-7) -80.0 +6
20. Sth Queensland Crushers (4-4) -15.0 -5
21. Fiji Sea Turtles (2-6) -47.0 -2
22. Barossa Grapestompers (1-7) -64.0 -2
23. Fiji Stingers (3-5) -56.0 -2
24. Port Moresby Demons (3-5) -59.0 -1
25. Melbourne Dreadnoks (1-7) -68.0 -3
26. Brantford Mustangs (0-8) -100.0 +2
27. Tasmania Swarm (2-6) -69.0 +0
28. Brisbane Bandits (3-5) -70.0 -4
29. Jersey Wildcats (1-7) -86.0 +2
30. Christchurch Knightmares (1-7) -94.0 +0
31t. Aussie Cardinals (0-8) -100.0 -3
31t. Emerald City Flying Monkeys (0-8) -100.0 +0

Introductory post (with information on Beatpaths): http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=1775585

Commentary
1) Now that some of the no-loss teams have helped break up that log jam, a pair of winless teams get to work on the other end. Zeta now has no winless teams left, because it is a meat grinder.

2) Canberra loses and thus moves up 8 places, more than anyone else. Why did this occur, you may ask? Well, it's naturally because the Jersey Wildcats defeated the Port Moresby Demons. Specifically, this created a CAN => TAS => JER => PMD => BB => CAN Beatloop. Since the BB Beatloss was much worse than their other losses, getting out from under it does them a lot of good. They need to be concerned, though, about the Beatloop breaking up. A Port Moresby victory over Tasmania in Week 10 would crush the Strike back down again.

3) The same Beatloops explains why Jersey doesn't get much from its win, as it is immediately discounted. It also keeps the Demons out of free-fall.

4) The Gods' win actually manages to loop away both of their worst Beatlosses. They form both GOD => SQC => SG => GOD and GOD => SQC => PMD => GOD. Given that none of their other 5 losses are ranked lower than 12, that lets them make a significant move. Samoa is also helped by this; their Beatwin over the Gods wasn't doing much for them, and their Beatloss to the Crushers was holding them down just a tiny bit. Furthermore, because no teams in GLB play each other more than once a season, neither of these loops can be broken. The Gods should hope Queensland knocks off a few more teams that have beaten them.

As always, please ask questions and point out anything that looks buggy!
 
Mornacale
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Last Week: 14-2
This Season: 38-10

Perfection. Last week Beatpaths picked every game right except for the winless-team upsets (and sadly including the Samoa loss ). Let us see how it does this week.

Beatpaths Predictions - Week 8
Home Team | Away Team | Confidence
Aussie Cardinals vs. West Scranton Invaders | 200.0 - CORRECT
Vanuatu Kava Sharks vs. Jersey Wildcats | 152.0 - CORRECT
Melbourne Thorny Devils vs. Christchurch Knightmares | 138.0 - CORRECT
Melbourne Dreadnoks vs. Playboy's Players Club | 129.0 - CORRECT
Port Moresby Demons vs. Mata-Utu Voodoo | 120.0 - CORRECT
Canberra Strike vs. Tonga Ikale Tahi | 86.0 - CORRECT
Samoa Gangsters vs. Tasmania Swarm | 69.0 - CORRECT
Emerald City Flying Monkeys vs. Fiji Sea Turtles | 53.0 - CORRECT
Sth Queensland Crushers vs. Barossa Grapestompers | 49.0 - WRONG
Orlando Prime Timers vs. Mean Machine | 36.0 - WRONG
Papua New Guinea Cannibals vs. Cascade Cajun Crushers | 36.0 - CORRECT
Brisbane Heat vs. So Cal BDC | 15.0 - WRONG
Cook Island Convicts vs. Banzai Pipeline 'Nites | 5.0 - WRONG
Fakaofo Bomb Squad vs. Firmament Mystic Prophets | -23.0 - CORRECT
Brisbane Gods vs. Fiji Stingers | -24.0 - CORRECT
Brisbane Bandits vs. Brantford Mustangs | -30.0 - CORRECT

Game of the Week: CIC vs BPN (24-34)

Wow. Tons of really good matchups this week. Only 5 real blowout type games, and 9 well within the upset zone. I should especially point out the three games (FBS v FMP, GOD v FIJ, BB v BFM) with a negative confidence. What this means is that the higher team on the Beatpaths rankings is actually lower in Beatpower. Generally they've found in the NFL that the rankings are a bit more accurate, but I'm really not sure that there is any statistically significant predictive value for games like this. I guess we'll see how it goes.

This Week: 12-4
Last edited Jan 19, 2009 21:01:32
 
McGruffHawk
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Tonga plays its toughest game of the season thus far, wins against Orlando, and falls 3 spots. Meanwhile, Orlando loses, and falls just one spot.

Maybe Tonga should've tried to lose that game . . .
 
Mornacale
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Basically, you were just hurt by your BeatPower getting roughed up--likely due to some Beatloops appearing down the graph from you--which caused you to lose the tiebreaker that you had previously been winning. I think it's safe to consider all the 7-1 teams basically equal for "real world" purposes.

Although amusingly, I just ran the sim and a loss would have put you at 5th (with OPT moving up to 7th). This bears investigation.

e: After further investigation, the TIT win caused a TIT => OPT => PNG => FBS => TIT Beatloop that keeps the loss from hurting OPT much. Conversely, it actually hurts TIT's fantastic tiebreaker. On the other hand, had OPT won there would be a TIT => PPC => CCC => OPT => TIT. This Beatloop keeps the loss from being a big problem, plus having a PPC Beatwin looped away is not as bad as losing one to OPT.

However, it's still better in the long term to have won this. All you need to do is beat PNG and you'll get your OPT Beatwin back, which is a really, really good win to have.
Last edited Jan 19, 2009 10:40:02
 
steinrat
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Because I'm lazy and don't want to look it up: Explain the "confidence level" number, please. I assume that it doesn't that you're 200% confident that WSI will win (although I am; I think we will beat Aussie, revive their lifeless carcusses, and then beat them again). So what DOES it mean?
 
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Haha yea..That is a bit odd.

TIT beat a hard team, and they actually fall a spot o.O.
 
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transitive property does not apply in sports.
 
McGruffHawk
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Originally posted by TheInstantClassic
Haha yea..That is a bit odd.

TIT beat a hard team, and they actually fall a spot o.O.


Actually we fell three spots with the win, while Orlando fell one spot with the loss.

But it will all shake out in the end I'm sure. Especially after we take down Cajun in a few weeks
 
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Originally posted by McGruffHawk
Originally posted by TheInstantClassic

Haha yea..That is a bit odd.

TIT beat a hard team, and they actually fall a spot o.O.


Actually we fell three spots with the win, while Orlando fell one spot with the loss.

But it will all shake out in the end I'm sure. Especially after we take down Cajun in a few weeks


Stop dreaming won't ya
 
McGruffHawk
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I'm dreaming that you guys will beat East St. Lois in the Landry Tournament. I'd rather not have to face them in round three . . .

Can Xi try to have one of his 4 TD games instead of one of his 4 INT games?
 
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Originally posted by McGruffHawk
I'm dreaming that you guys will beat East St. Lois in the Landry Tournament. I'd rather not have to face them in round three . . .

Can Xi try to have one of his 4 TD games instead of one of his 4 INT games?


Hey cmon Xi doesn't choke THAT much.

But I'll see what we can do against East. St. Louis
 
nautilus
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Nice work...
 
Linker2596
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Anything that doesn't have the Gods below #20 is good for me! I like how the beatpaths work it's realy an interesting thing to think about and look at.
 
Mornacale
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Originally posted by steinrat
Because I'm lazy and don't want to look it up: Explain the "confidence level" number, please. I assume that it doesn't that you're 200% confident that WSI will win (although I am; I think we will beat Aussie, revive their lifeless carcusses, and then beat them again). So what DOES it mean?


The "confidence level" is just Team A's BeatPower - Team B's BeatPower (where Team A is the team which is predicted to win). As far as I know, no precise correlation between "Confidence" and likelihood to win has been attempted, but it has seemed consistently true that high-Confidence games are chosen correctly more often than low-Confidence.

Note also that Confidence is technically on a -200 to 200 scale (though practically I wouldn't expect to ever see anything below maybe -75).


As far as TIT, note that it's not exactly unheard-of to fall a few spots despite a win. Even in the standings, it's easy to imagine: if you are in a 4-way or more tie, and you scrape out a close win while the tied teams score enough to surpass you, you'll drop despite it. This case is similar: TIT remains basically on the exact same level as their peers, they've just fallen behind slightly on the tiebreaker. A situation as close as the 7-1 teams in that chart is basically interchangeable.


e: Just checked out the predictions results, and I'm pretty pumped that it predicted both the Gods and Mustangs wins.
Last edited Jan 19, 2009 21:03:35
 


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