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Forum > Pacific Pro League > Oceania Conference > Beatpaths Power Rankings - Week 6
Mornacale
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(DISCLAIMER: I did not invent Beatpaths and I do not own the idea or any of the algorithms used here--I've simply did some reverse-engineering of the code. All credit goes to the good people at www.beatpaths.com.)

Where we call every team by name...
Text file glory: http://www.mornacale.com/beatpaths/OProPR6.txt

Oceania Pro
Week 6
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Rank | Team Name | Record | BeatPower|Change
1t. Cook Island Convicts (6-0) 100.0 +0
1t. Brisbane Heat (6-0) 100.0 +0
1t. Mean Machine (6-0) 100.0 +0
1t. Orlando Prime Timers (6-0) 100.0 +0
1t. West Scranton Invaders (6-0) 100.0 +0
6. Tonga Ikale Tahi (5-1) 85.0 +0
7. Cascade Cajun Crushers (5-1) 62.0 +0
8. So Cal BDC (5-1) 87.0 +0
9. Vanuatu Kava Sharks (4-2) 76.0 +0
10. Firmament Mystic Prophets (3-3) 66.0 +2
11. Papua New Guinea Cannibals (4-2) 63.0 +2
12. Playboy's Players Club (3-3) 12.0 +2
13. Banzai Pipeline 'Nites (5-1) 71.0 +2
14. Sth Queensland Crushers (3-3) 33.0 +2
15. Canberra Strike (4-2) 33.0 -5
16. Fakaofo Bomb Squad (2-4) -18.0 +1
17. Melbourne Dreadnoks (1-5) -33.0 +1
18. Mata-Utu Voodoo (4-2) 20.0 -8
19. Melbourne Thorny Devils (3-3) 5.0 +1
20. Samoa Gangsters (3-3) -22.0 +1
21. Fiji Stingers (3-3) -47.0 +3
22. Barossa Grapestompers (1-5) -50.0 +1
23. Fiji Sea Turtles (1-5) -84.0 +2
24. Port Moresby Demons (2-4) -60.0 +2
25. Tasmania Swarm (2-4) -72.0 -6
26. Brantford Mustangs (0-6) -100.0 +1
27. Brisbane Bandits (2-4) -87.0 +2
28. Christchurch Knightmares (1-5) -93.0 -6
29t. Jersey Wildcats (0-6) -100.0 -2
29t. Brisbane Gods (0-6) -100.0 +1
29t. Aussie Cardinals (0-6) -100.0 +1
29t. Emerald City Flying Monkeys (0-6) -100.0 +1

Introductory post (with information on Beatpaths): http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=1775585

Commentary
No time for comments tonight. Maybe I'll add some later. Let me know if anything looks interesting to you.

As always, please ask questions and point out anything that looks buggy!
 
Mornacale
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Last Week: 13-3
Season: 13-3

The picks did awesome last week, predicting every game correctly except for the three closest. I did not get a chance to put them up this week--I discovered today that Thursdays will be my ridiculous day this semester--but this is what they would have been had I done so:

Beatpaths Predictions - Week 7
Home Team | Away Team | Confidence
Emerald City Flying Monkeys vs. Mean Machine | 200.0 - CORRECT
Brisbane Heat vs. Brisbane Gods | 200.0 - CORRECT
Aussie Cardinals vs. Tonga Ikale Tahi | 185.0 - CORRECT
Papua New Guinea Cannibals vs. Brantford Mustangs | 163.0 - CORRECT
Banzai Pipeline 'Nites vs. Tasmania Swarm | 143.0 - CORRECT
Canberra Strike vs. Brisbane Bandits | 120.0 - WRONG!
Fakaofo Bomb Squad vs. West Scranton Invaders | 118.0 - CORRECT
Cook Island Convicts vs. Mata-Utu Voodoo | 80.0 - WRONG
Sth Queensland Crushers vs. Fiji Stingers | 80.0 - CORRECT
Samoa Gangsters vs. Jersey Wildcats | 78.0 - CORRECT
Melbourne Thorny Devils vs. Barossa Grapestompers | 55.0 - CORRECT
Playboy's Players Club vs. Firmament Mystic Prophets | 54.0 - WRONG
Melbourne Dreadnoks vs. Fiji Sea Turtles | 51.0 - WRONG
Orlando Prime Timers vs. Cascade Cajun Crushers | 38.0 - WRONG
Port Moresby Demons vs. Christchurch Knightmares | 33.0 - CORRECT
Vanuatu Kava Sharks vs. So Cal BDC | 11.0 - CORRECT

This Week: 11-5
Last edited Jan 15, 2009 19:10:15
 
Mystico3
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18. Mata-Utu Voodoo (4-2) 20.0 -8

- 8 a bit drastic when losing to a 1 loss team no? yeesh
 
Booboo Laaug
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Originally posted by Mystico3
18. Mata-Utu Voodoo (4-2) 20.0 -8

- 8 a bit drastic when losing to a 1 loss team no? yeesh


We would've went up quite abit had we won instead.
 
Mornacale
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Well, the issue is that the Voodoo now have a Beatloss to the Nites, who have a Beatloss to BDC, who have in turn a Beatloss to Cook Island (or at least, I am assuming that based on the rankings; there certainly doesn't seem to be a beatloop). The easiest way to think of it is in tiers:

Tier 1: teams with no beatlosses
Tier 2: teams with beatlosses only to teams in Tier 1
Tier 3: teams with beatlosses only to teams in Tiers 1 and 2
etc.

Then CIC is T1, BDC is T2, BPN is T3, and MUV gets dropped into T4 (since their other loss is to MM, who is T1).

Similarly, that's why the 'Nites can't even crack the top 10 with a 5-1 record.

If you had beat BPN, your only Beatloss would be to MM, and thus you'd have stayed T2. That would put you somewhere between 8th and 13th, depending on your BeatPower. I'm going to guess top-10, probably 8th or 9th, but just for fun I will run a simulation when I get back to my own computer.


e: So, in general, for Beatpaths it's actually worse to lose to a team with 1 Beatloss, if the team the Beatloss is to has a Beatloss, than to a team with Beatlosses to 5 different undefeated teams. This is just in the short term, though, since that 5-Beatloss team is in danger of dropping precipitously at any time while the 1-Beatloss team could easily have their loss Beatlooped away and rise.
Last edited Jan 15, 2009 06:54:10
 
Mystico3
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Originally posted by Booboo Laaug
Originally posted by Mystico3

18. Mata-Utu Voodoo (4-2) 20.0 -8

- 8 a bit drastic when losing to a 1 loss team no? yeesh


We would've went up quite abit had we won instead.


yeah, we could have...thanks for screwing it up Booboo!!!!!
 
steinrat
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Originally posted by Mornacale
Last Week: 13-3
Season: 13-3

The picks did awesome last week, predicting every game correctly except for the three closest. I did not get a chance to put them up this week--I discovered today that Thursdays will be my ridiculous day this semester--but this is what they would have been had I done so:

Beatpaths Predictions - Week 7
Home Team | Away Team | Confidence
Emerald City Flying Monkeys vs. Mean Machine | 200.0 - CORRECT
Brisbane Heat vs. Brisbane Gods | 200.0 - CORRECT
Aussie Cardinals vs. Tonga Ikale Tahi | 185.0 - CORRECT
Papua New Guinea Cannibals vs. Brantford Mustangs | 163.0 - CORRECT
Banzai Pipeline 'Nites vs. Tasmania Swarm | 143.0 - CORRECT
Canberra Strike vs. Brisbane Bandits | 120.0 - WRONG!
Fakaofo Bomb Squad vs. West Scranton Invaders | 118.0 - CORRECT
Cook Island Convicts vs. Mata-Utu Voodoo | 80.0 - WRONG
Sth Queensland Crushers vs. Fiji Stingers | 80.0 - CORRECT
Samoa Gangsters vs. Jersey Wildcats | 78.0 - CORRECT
Melbourne Thorny Devils vs. Barossa Grapestompers | 55.0 - CORRECT
Playboy's Players Club vs. Firmament Mystic Prophets | 54.0 - WRONG
Melbourne Dreadnoks vs. Fiji Sea Turtles | 51.0 - WRONG
Orlando Prime Timers vs. Cascade Cajun Crushers | 38.0 - WRONG
Port Moresby Demons vs. Christchurch Knightmares | 33.0 - CORRECT
Vanuatu Kava Sharks vs. So Cal BDC | 11.0 - CORRECT

This Week: 11-5


If I had posted my personal picks in time, I would've agreed with these on every game except Canberra, CIC, PPC, Melbourne, and Orlando. After next week's games, I'll tell everyone what my picks would've been for those games too.
Last edited Jan 16, 2009 08:25:16
 
Mystico3
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funny stein.

After losing the last game, I am not even sure we would have picked ourselves over CIC. Not that we planned on losing, but we knew it would be tough to win
 
Mornacale
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Alright, I just ran the simulation. Had MUV won in week 6, they would have been ranked 9th, just a tiny hair (1 BeatPower) behind BDC. So winning would have moved them up 1 spot (and put them in an excellent position to keep rising).

P.S. as regards the picks, since you know all the data I use and also how the picks are made, it's not like I could very easily fake them. Plus, doing so wouldn't even make me look good, since I didn't invent these algorithms.
Last edited Jan 17, 2009 01:30:10
 
Mystico3
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morn

hey, great explination.

totally unneccessary though. dropping 8 vs moving up 1 is a bit harsh even in the computer world... lets see what they say this week after beating an undefeated team. I am honestly interested
 
Booboo Laaug
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Originally posted by Mystico3
morn

hey, great explination.

totally unneccessary though. dropping 8 vs moving up 1 is a bit harsh even in the computer world... lets see what they say this week after beating an undefeated team. I am honestly interested


LOL, he already posted it up.

Beating CIC put us in a good position for future ranking though if I understand the Beatloops better. We went up to 12th, but if we keep winning and they win the rest of their season - then we'll get higher.
Last edited Jan 17, 2009 05:42:48
 
steinrat
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Originally posted by Mornacale
Alright, I just ran the simulation. Had MUV won in week 6, they would have been ranked 9th, just a tiny hair (1 BeatPower) behind BDC. So winning would have moved them up 1 spot (and put them in an excellent position to keep rising).

P.S. as regards the picks, since you know all the data I use and also how the picks are made, it's not like I could very easily fake them. Plus, doing so wouldn't even make me look good, since I didn't invent these algorithms.


I keed, I keed. I keed because I love stupid newbies.
 


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