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Forum > Oceania AA Leagues > Oceania AA #4 > Swift's Predictions for Zeta Game 5
AnalogKid
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Let’s take a quick recap of last week’s games.


Devonport Devils (3-0) vs Rochester Iroquois (3-0)
Ok, here is an early battle of two unbeatens both competing for the top 4 spots. This is a key matchup of fairly evenly matched teams and hard to predict. Devonport appears to have stronger depth than the Iroquois, so I will give them the slight advantage. This one is close enough that an interception could make a big difference. Devonport by 4, 34-30.
It was a great contest. Devonport took a 21-6 lead shortly into the second half, but Rochester was able to control the ball and the game, marching out 3 long drives in the second half and keeping the Devils off of the field. The Iroquois scored a FG with 8 minutes left in the game and never gave the lead back. The difference can be seen in Rochester with 86 plays, Devonport with 46 plays. A very productive day for Rochester’s Ouincy Wilson (HB) with 114 yds rushing and 2 TDs, Jay Bunn (WR) with 9 receptions for 165 yds, and Butch Winnfield (QB) for going 30/43 for 335 yds and no interceptions. Final: Rochester by 2, 23-21.

Perth Pirates (3-0) vs Sydney Sea Wasps (3-0)
This is going to be another down to the wire that will determine who is the "Master of the High Seas". In this game, any little difference may make a difference. On one side we have the stealthy Pirates led by Captain Boo Berry. They are experience, have a solid defense and a balanced offensive attack. On the other side, we have the Sea Wasps who can sting you quickly with their passing attack and refuse to miss a tackle on defense. Sydney is probably the team with the most depth. Perth has a perfect team chemistry. They both have played the Redcliffe Sharks with Perth winning by a bigger margin. I picked Sydney as my #1 team in the pre-season predictions, which makes me want to take them in a win here, but I think that Perth's rushing attack will be the difference in this game. If they can average 4.0 yds or more per rush (not counting sacks), and don't make more than 1 interception, then they will manage a win. Regardless, it will not be easy for either team. Perth takes the seas by 3, 17-14.
Well, this one ended up not being very close. I should have stuck with my initial projection. And poor Perth hates win I pick them. They win ever close game that I have them losing and lose every close game that I have them winning. So I promise not to pick you anymore Perth if it is a close game! Congratulations to Sydney who played a great game. Perth went with the all out aerial assault, but weren’t very successful against the stout Sydney defense. Sydney was just very strong and steady throughout as they calmly took care of business. Their leading player of the game was Jonathan Eivins (HB) with 32 rushes for 132 yds, 7 rec for 22 yds, and 3 TDs. Final: Sydney by 27, 37-10.

Apia Evil (3-0) vs Tasmania Dragons (0-3)
Ok, not much to this game. Apia will show why they are the Evil as they defeat the Dragons soundly driving them into the ground, but then drag their dead dragon carcasses through the arena. Apia by 76, 86-10.
This game went almost exactly like expected, but that’s not surprise – Apia took care of business. You know it’s a landslide when the kick/punt returner is the top performer. Apia’s Carandol "Redmane" Bellsulion (CB) had 4 kick returns and 8 punt returns for a total of 537 yds and 5 TDs. Final: Apia by 70, 87-17.

Samoa Savages (3-0) vs Intergalactic Sub-Mariners (1-2)
Samoa is off to a strong start and looks to keep the streak going. Intergalactic may have two loses, but those are against very good teams. They have put up strong showings in their games so far this season. I think however that the Savages have a stronger offense and will beat the Sub-Mariners. Samoa tries to stay among the unbeaten and should be able to do it this week as long as they don’t make any major turnovers. We will have 4 unbeaten teams after game 4. Samoa by 7, 31-24.
Samoa got a resounding win against Intergalactic. The Sub-Mariners put up a good fight. I said Samoa would win if they didn’t make any major turnovers – major turnovers there were, and Samoa did make them in a way. Samoa was able to force a fumble and to make 5 interceptions, including two pick 6s by “Glue Hand” Jackson for 84 yards and 52 yards and another pick 6 by teammate Varag Ghoulchewer returned for 47 yards. From the Sub-Mariners perspective, when you are -5 in the turnover ratio, with 3 of them turned into defensive touchdowns, you can’t do much to win that game. Final: Samoa by 38, 52–14.

Waikiki Wrecks (2-1) vs Alaska Wild (0-3)
Waikiki has started their move up the charts and want to make a Wreck of the Wild. Alaska is 0-3, but they are a much better team than last season. The Wild has come a long way, but they are still weak on defense, and will struggle to stay in games. Waikiki may not be the most prolific of offenses, but they are pretty solid in both passing and rushing. In the end, Waikiki takes Alaska as both a tourist destination and as the winner of this game. The Wrecks by 18, 38-20.
Pretty much as expect, Waikiki wins easily in this game. Pretty powerful showing by the Wrecks as 3 HBs , Homerun threat, SKeeter McCrazylegs, and Falafel Trout, combined for 26 rushes for 222.5 yds for a 8.5 yd/rush average and 3 TDs. Final: Waikiki by 38, 48-10.

An Album Cover (2-1) vs DECATUR STALEYS (0-3)
An Album Cover feels pretty good off to a 2-1 start. Their next opponent is DECATUR who are off to an 0-3 start. If An Album Cover thinks that records mean anything at this point, they will be sorely mistaken. In fact, they are liable to just be plan sore after this one. Chief Bootnaka will get the STALEYS pointed in the right direction at An Album Cover’s expense and start them on a winning streak. DECATUR is just stronger in every area and will demonstrate that with a dominant performance. DECATUR by 16, 40-24.
DECATUR finally go in the win column and did so in an impressive way. The Brain trust figured out how to get the ball moving on offense and how to stop it on defensive in an all around impressive game by the STALEYS. Impressive play by many on DECATUR’s team, but one caught my attention, DE Caron Scott, who had 3 tackles, 2 hurries and an interception (by a DE) which he returned 29 yards for a TD! (http://goallineblitz.com/game/replay.pl?game_id=312052&pbp_id=3703842). Final: DECATUR by 25, 30-5.

Port Moresby Scallywags (1-2) vs Redcliffe Sharks (0-3)
Port Moresby will enjoy a win this week as they move to 500 at 2-2. The lowly Sharks don’t have much of a prayer of winning even 1 game this season except for maybe against Tasmania. So the Scallywags will prevail in this boring contest. Port Moresby by 35, 45-10.
Port Moresby weren’t too nice to Redcliffe as they march on to victory giving the Sharks a sound beating. The Scallyways HB, Stephan Decator, only had 19 rushes, but turned that into 131 yards and 5 TDs! Also, eat mydust (WR) lived up to his name with 5 receptions for 107 yards and 3 TDs. The one bright spot for Redcliffe was they made two interceptions, but unfortunately weren’t able to capitalize upon them. Final: Port Moresby by 64, 70-6.

Komodo Dragons (1-2) vs Fiji Rage (1-2)
This will be a good game as one team will move out of the bottom 5 and move closer to the middle of the pack. Both teams have had two tough loses to two tough teams. In my opinion, Komodo is a possible playoff team and will be fighting for one of those last spots as the season ends. Fiji is probably not a playoff team this season, but they have played well so far. This will be a fairly close one and Fiji could pull an upset if they can make a couple of big plays. Komodo by 7, 17-10.
Komodo said hello to Fiji and then went on to beat them into the ground. What was expected to be a close game was broken open with lots of interceptions. Komodo threw 2, but Fiji couldn’t do anything with them. Fiji threw 3, two of which were returned for pick 6’s and the other for a long return. A really big performance by Komodo’s star TE, Elaho Stoltmann, with 8 receptions, 219 yards and 3 TDs! Final: Komodo by 29, 45-16.

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So we thought there would be 4 close games (within 7 points), but in the end only one was a contest. Maybe this week we’ll get some more balanced contests. Let’s take a look.

Week 5

Apia Evil (4-0) vs Rochester Iroquois (4-0)
This is one of those type of games we look for. A battle of two unbeatens, both trying to make a statement that they should be ranked #1 in the conference. The scouting report tells us the Rochester has the slightest of edge over Apia. Looking at who they have beaten so far, Apia has beat 3 easy teams and one maybe good(?) team in DECATUR. Rochester has defeated one good team and a couple of middle of the pack teams. The Iroquois will get no rest after their terrific defeat of the Devils last game, but will have to play equally as well and mistake free this week. Apia was a bruiser of a team last season and appears to be on their way again. Apia leads the conference in average per rush with 6.3 yards. Rochester doesn’t rely on their rushing game as much as their passing game, but it is effective enough to keep position of the ball as they proved last week. I think this game will be very close and it is a little hard to get a good read on Apia’s ability so far this season, but I will have to go with Rochester by 3, 30-27.

Sydney Sea Wasps (4-0) vs Komodo Dragons (2-2)
Even though Sydney is 4-0 and Komodo is 2-2, I think this should be an interesting game. Sydney has really only played one of the best teams in Perth, but they soundly beat them. Komodo has played to of the currently undefeated teams and lost to both, one by 4 points and one by 2 points. So they are only 8 points away from being 4-0 themselves. They have both played the Fiji Rage, so if we use that as the gauge, Komodo won by 29, 45-16; Sydney won by 20, 37-17. Just going with a hunch, the Komodo Dragons (which can’t fly in real life) probably get stung in yet another relatively close one by the Sea Wasps. Komodo will definitely be a playoff contender though even with the 3 early loses. Sydney by 10, 34-24.

Samoa Savages (4-0) vs Devonport Devils (3-1)
Which is stronger a Savage or a Devil? Samoa has started off fast and run out to an impressive 4-0 through the first quarter of the season. However, they really haven’t played any of the top teams, although they did beat a good team in Komodo. Devonport slipped a little last week in a tough lost to a top in Rochester, but otherwise has a pretty easy run to 3-1. I think Samoa has finally hit a team that is slightly better than them, but certainly not out of reach of winning this game. All it takes is a little slip up by the Devils and the Savages will be 5-0. I hate to pick my team, I’d rather be the underdog, but in the end I think the Devils are slightly better. Devonport by 7, 31-24.

Perth Pirates (3-1) vs Port Moresby Scallywags (2-2)
Perth Pirates had a really rough week last week and would like to take it out on their next opponent, Port Moresby. The Scallywags had a great showing and would like to keep it going and turn their one win into a winning streak. This is an example of just how deep this conference is this season. On any given day the top 10 teams or so, could upset anyone else. A slight mistake in game planning will definitely cost you. Back to this game. The Pirates want to show the Scallywags who the real rouges are, while the Scallywags say they have a little mischief of their own to pull. In the end, the Pirates send the land-lubbing Scallywags back home as Perth does a little pillaging. Perth by 14, 28-14.

Waikiki Wrecks (3-1) vs DECATUR STALEYS (1-3)
So far, all the games this week have been a 500 or better team against another 500 or better. This one may not quite fall into that category, but it will be a good matchup. Waikiki has handled their 3 weak opponents pretty easily, but soundly beat by the one better team. DECATUR has lost 3 to good teams, but soundly beat the one weaker opponent. Even though Waikiki is 3-1 and DECATUR is 1-3, that is just a matter of who they have played so far this season. I think both teams are good teams, but I think Waikiki will find the going difficult this week. The STALEYS have started winning and plan on keeping that trend up. If the Wrecks can pull this one out, they have an easy win next week and could be 5-1, but they are going to need a little help to get it done. DECATUR moves their steak to 2 with a win by 10, 30-20.

An Album Cover (2-2) vs Tasmania Dragons (0-4)
An Album Cover is stinging a little after last weeks lost to the STALEYS, but will get a chance to bounce back this week. Tasmania is still waiting for that first shot at a victory, but that won’t happen for two more weeks. An Album Cover can just chalk this one up and start planning for their contest the following week against Rochester. An Album Cover by 63, 73-10.

Intergalactic Sub-Mariners (1-3) vs Fiji Rage (1-3)
A battle between to 1-3 teams, probably a key game for both teams to keep out of the bottom four for the end of the season. Both teams 3 loses have been against good teams. Intergalactic got smacked around pretty hard last game by the Savages and their heads are probably still spinning. Fiji also go pretty knocked around by their last opponent, the Dragons. Both teams want a win, but only one will get it. In the end, I think a Rage scares me a little more than a Sub-Mariner. Fiji by 9, 26-17.

Alaska Wild (0-4) vs Redcliffe Sharks (0-4)
Two all loses teams trying for their first victory. But they are really different teams. Both were in the 12-14 range last season. Redcliffe went belly up and the Sharks are floating. Alaska has worked hard to improve, but coming from that position in this conference last season and having 7 new teams added that are better than you is a long climb up. They’ll find it tough this season, but this is one game that they will win. Alaska, go Wild in this one and have some fun. Alaska DOMINATES the Sharks by 48, 65-17.


Well, that is it for the predictions for week 5. Looks like a very hotly contested week as 2 games are within 7 and 4 more are within 14.
 
tttbrian
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Port Moresby has indeed struggled in our first few games in the new league. We just have to prepare that much more. Good luck Pirates.
 
SpreadThePink
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Originally posted by Swift


Week 5

Apia Evil (4-0) vs Rochester Iroquois (4-0)
This is one of those type of games we look for. A battle of two unbeatens, both trying to make a statement that they should be ranked #1 in the conference. The scouting report tells us the Rochester has the slightest of edge over Apia. Looking at who they have beaten so far, Apia has beat 3 easy teams and one maybe good(?) team in DECATUR. Rochester has defeated one good team and a couple of middle of the pack teams. The Iroquois will get no rest after their terrific defeat of the Devils last game, but will have to play equally as well and mistake free this week. Apia was a bruiser of a team last season and appears to be on their way again. Apia leads the conference in average per rush with 6.3 yards. Rochester doesn’t rely on their rushing game as much as their passing game, but it is effective enough to keep position of the ball as they proved last week. I think this game will be very close and it is a little hard to get a good read on Apia’s ability so far this season, but I will have to go with Rochester by 3, 30-27.




Looks good to me.
 
cosmoxl
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Originally posted by SpreadThePink
Originally posted by Swift



Week 5

Apia Evil (4-0) vs Rochester Iroquois (4-0)
This is one of those type of games we look for. A battle of two unbeatens, both trying to make a statement that they should be ranked #1 in the conference. The scouting report tells us the Rochester has the slightest of edge over Apia. Looking at who they have beaten so far, Apia has beat 3 easy teams and one maybe good(?) team in DECATUR. Rochester has defeated one good team and a couple of middle of the pack teams. The Iroquois will get no rest after their terrific defeat of the Devils last game, but will have to play equally as well and mistake free this week. Apia was a bruiser of a team last season and appears to be on their way again. Apia leads the conference in average per rush with 6.3 yards. Rochester doesn’t rely on their rushing game as much as their passing game, but it is effective enough to keep position of the ball as they proved last week. I think this game will be very close and it is a little hard to get a good read on Apia’s ability so far this season, but I will have to go with Rochester by 3, 30-27.




Looks good to me.


hehe.. you like being the underdog, eh?
 
jbob23
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oh yeah
 
thekegcans
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Originally posted by tttbrian
Port Moresby has indeed struggled in our first few games in the new league. We just have to prepare that much more. Good luck Pirates.


Good luck Scallywags. should be a good matchup.
Last edited Jan 9, 2009 21:07:55
 
barnardanimal
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Damn it, Swift! Stop picking us!
 
cybermacy
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Originally posted by cosmoxl
Originally posted by SpreadThePink

Originally posted by Swift




Week 5

Apia Evil (4-0) vs Rochester Iroquois (4-0)
This is one of those type of games we look for. A battle of two unbeatens, both trying to make a statement that they should be ranked #1 in the conference. The scouting report tells us the Rochester has the slightest of edge over Apia. Looking at who they have beaten so far, Apia has beat 3 easy teams and one maybe good(?) team in DECATUR. Rochester has defeated one good team and a couple of middle of the pack teams. The Iroquois will get no rest after their terrific defeat of the Devils last game, but will have to play equally as well and mistake free this week. Apia was a bruiser of a team last season and appears to be on their way again. Apia leads the conference in average per rush with 6.3 yards. Rochester doesn’t rely on their rushing game as much as their passing game, but it is effective enough to keep position of the ball as they proved last week. I think this game will be very close and it is a little hard to get a good read on Apia’s ability so far this season, but I will have to go with Rochester by 3, 30-27.




Looks good to me.


hehe.. you like being the underdog, eh?


underdog suits us. Pick us to lose going forward. We suck anyway.
 
cosmoxl
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Originally posted by cybermacy
Originally posted by cosmoxl

Originally posted by SpreadThePink


Originally posted by Swift





Week 5

Apia Evil (4-0) vs Rochester Iroquois (4-0)
This is one of those type of games we look for. A battle of two unbeatens, both trying to make a statement that they should be ranked #1 in the conference. The scouting report tells us the Rochester has the slightest of edge over Apia. Looking at who they have beaten so far, Apia has beat 3 easy teams and one maybe good(?) team in DECATUR. Rochester has defeated one good team and a couple of middle of the pack teams. The Iroquois will get no rest after their terrific defeat of the Devils last game, but will have to play equally as well and mistake free this week. Apia was a bruiser of a team last season and appears to be on their way again. Apia leads the conference in average per rush with 6.3 yards. Rochester doesn’t rely on their rushing game as much as their passing game, but it is effective enough to keep position of the ball as they proved last week. I think this game will be very close and it is a little hard to get a good read on Apia’s ability so far this season, but I will have to go with Rochester by 3, 30-27.




Looks good to me.


hehe.. you like being the underdog, eh?


underdog suits us. Pick us to lose going forward. We suck anyway.


no, you don't.
 
SWVAHoo
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Great reporting, Swift!
And I especially like the recap of each game, too.
Keep up the sound work!
 
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Swift should be paid for his insights into the games, and once again you have spiced the reviews up with the recaps, so thank you from all of us in Decatur! -Naka
 


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