First off, all the team stats are copy/pasted into a spreadsheet and sorted. Then I fill out a matrix to identify which teams have played one another and which team won. Then all this is passed to the first set of matrices which calculates various things about your opponents and basically creates a bunch of averages. This is where I figure out how good your opponents are.
The data from these matrices are passed to a common sheet for all the data I am interested in. A few more things are calculated here (percentages). After this, data is passed to the second set of matrices which simulate out various parts of the season. Things like how many yards you would gain or points allowed. The setup is based on this league projector: http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=447611
The third set of matrices brings everything together and does a comparative analysis to determine who would win a head to head matchup if everyone played all 31 other teams. It then reports to a matrix similar to the one I use to input who won or lost. I then have this matrix dump the wins, losses, and ties into the common sheet. The team with the most wins gets the highest power rank and so on down.
What is taken into account in the determination of who won or lost is this:
-predicted points scored and allowed
-how likely you are to win based on record quality (i.e. who is more likely to beat good teams and not lose to bad ones)
-predicted yards gained and allowed
-predicted amount of turnovers for and against
This is the formula so far
Your points = League average points per game*percent chance of win based on record + the points you are predicted to score + predicted yards / league average yards per point + predicted turnover ratio x 3
Your opponent gets the same formula. The team with the higher number of points wins that game.
I also put offense and defense ranks on there. Right now they are based on the predicted number of yards.
O=Overall
P=Pass
R=Rush
If you are interested in using this spreadsheet head here:
http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=791249
=================================================================================================
======
Week 15
======
Rank ..... Prv …… Offense ............ Defense ...... Team
................................ O/P/R .................. O/P/R
Garuda
... 02 ...... 03 ..... 01 / 04 / 07 ......... 04 / 05 / 04 .... The Elephant Riders
... 03 ...... 04 ..... 03 / 01 / 14 ......... 01 / 01 / 02 .... Sault Ste Marie Metalheads
... 04 ...... 05 ..... 06 / 10 / 08 ......... 02 / 04 / 05 .... San Fran Gold Rush
... 09 ...... 09 ..... 18 / 22 / 12 ......... 09 / 07 / 08 .... Thailand Cheap Toys
... 10 ...... 11 ..... 11 / 16 / 11 ......... 10 / 08 / 11 .... Palembang Tigers
... 12 ...... 14 ..... 13 / 27 / 01 ......... 07 / 02 / 12 .... Tibetan Drunk Monks
... 13 ...... 13 ..... 12 / 20 / 09 ......... 15 / 23 / 15 .... Garut Fire Horses
... 16 ...... 15 ..... 05 / 13 / 02 ......... 16 / 21 / 16 .... The Pretenders
... 18 ...... 20 ..... 10 / 24 / 03 ......... 17 / 16 / 17 .... Arctic Avalanche
... 19 ...... 18 ..... 16 / 14 / 15 ......... 20 / 17 / 18 .... Shanghai Cheetahs
... 23 ...... 24 ..... 22 / 09 / 24 ......... 25 / 19 / 26 .... Thung Yai Tigers
... 24 ...... 23 ..... 27 / 17 / 28 ......... 23 / 22 / 24 .... Midway Maulers
... 25 ...... 25 ..... 24 / 03 / 30 ......... 31 / 32 / 28 .... Shanghai Shadow Dragons
... 27 ...... 27 ..... 26 / 21 / 26 ......... 28 / 30 / 25 .... Kyoto Samurai
... 28 ...... 28 ..... 29 / 28 / 25 ......... 27 / 27 / 27 .... SBI Waves
... 32 ...... 32 ..... 32 / 32 / 31 ......... 30 / 31 / 31 .... Hanoi Predators
Naga
... 01 ...... 02 ..... 08 / 05 / 17 ......... 05 / 14 / 01 .... Algeria Addiction
... 05 ...... 07 ..... 07 / 15 / 04 ......... 03 / 03 / 06 .... Cambodia Mountain Men
... 06 ...... 01 ..... 09 / 06 / 19 ......... 12 / 10 / 14 .... Jakarta Yellow Devils
... 07 ...... 06 ..... 02 / 07 / 05 ......... 08 / 13 / 03 .... Sumatra Sting
... 08 ...... 08 ..... 15 / 25 / 06 ......... 06 / 06 / 07 .... Singapore J.B. Lions
... 11 ...... 12 ..... 20 / 23 / 16 ......... 14 / 24 / 09 .... Subic Bay Admirals
... 14 ...... 10 ..... 14 / 19 / 10 ......... 11 / 09 / 10 .... Hell Valley Snow Monkeys
... 15 ...... 16 ..... 19 / 12 / 21 ......... 13 / 15 / 13 .... Pontianak Firebirds
... 17 ...... 17 ..... 04 / 02 / 13 ......... 18 / 12 / 20 .... Tibet Psychonauts
... 20 ...... 19 ..... 17 / 08 / 23 ......... 21 / 18 / 19 .... Salford Storm
... 21 ...... 21 ..... 23 / 26 / 18 ......... 22 / 20 / 22 .... Brutal Deluxe
... 22 ...... 22 ..... 21 / 18 / 22 ......... 19 / 11 / 21 .... Phuket Water Dragons
... 26 ...... 26 ..... 25 / 31 / 20 ......... 24 / 26 / 23 .... Pingree Grove Pits
... 29 ...... 29 ..... 30 / 29 / 27 ......... 29 / 28 / 30 .... Manila Cyberballers
... 30 ...... 30 ..... 31 / 30 / 29 ......... 32 / 29 / 32 .... Alpha Beta's
... 31 ...... 31 ..... 28 / 11 / 32 ......... 26 / 25 / 29 .... Mount Fiji Dogs
======
Week 16
======
Rank ..... Prv …… Offense ............ Defense ...... Team
................................ O/P/R .................. O/P/R
Garuda
... 02 ...... 02 ..... 01 / 02 / 07 ......... 03 / 06 / 03 .... The Elephant Riders
... 03 ...... 04 ..... 06 / 10 / 08 ......... 04 / 04 / 06 .... San Fran Gold Rush
... 04 ...... 03 ..... 02 / 01 / 15 ......... 01 / 02 / 02 .... Sault Ste Marie Metalheads
... 08 ...... 09 ..... 18 / 22 / 11 ......... 09 / 07 / 08 .... Thailand Cheap Toys
... 10 ...... 10 ..... 16 / 16 / 13 ......... 11 / 09 / 11 .... Palembang Tigers
... 12 ...... 13 ..... 11 / 17 / 09 ......... 15 / 20 / 14 .... Garut Fire Horses
... 14 ...... 12 ..... 10 / 27 / 01 ......... 07 / 01 / 13 .... Tibetan Drunk Monks
... 15 ...... 16 ..... 04 / 13 / 02 ......... 18 / 23 / 16 .... The Manila Guerrillas
... 17 ...... 19 ..... 14 / 14 / 14 ......... 16 / 15 / 17 .... Shanghai Cheetahs
... 20 ...... 18 ..... 12 / 23 / 04 ......... 20 / 22 / 18 .... Arctic Avalanche
... 23 ...... 23 ..... 22 / 09 / 24 ......... 25 / 18 / 25 .... Thung Yai Tigers
... 24 ...... 24 ..... 27 / 20 / 28 ......... 23 / 24 / 24 .... Midway Maulers
... 25 ...... 25 ..... 24 / 04 / 30 ......... 31 / 32 / 28 .... Shanghai Shadow Dragons
... 27 ...... 27 ..... 25 / 21 / 26 ......... 28 / 30 / 26 .... Kyoto Samurai
... 28 ...... 28 ..... 29 / 28 / 25 ......... 27 / 27 / 27 .... SBI Waves
... 32 ...... 32 ..... 32 / 32 / 31 ......... 30 / 31 / 31 .... Hanoi Predators
Naga
... 01 ...... 01 ..... 08 / 05 / 17 ......... 05 / 13 / 01 .... Algeria Addiction
... 05 ...... 05 ..... 07 / 18 / 03 ......... 02 / 03 / 05 .... Cambodia Mountain Men
... 06 ...... 08 ..... 13 / 24 / 05 ......... 06 / 05 / 07 .... Singapore J.B. Lions
... 07 ...... 06 ..... 09 / 06 / 18 ......... 12 / 10 / 15 .... Jakarta Yellow Devils
... 09 ...... 07 ..... 03 / 07 / 06 ......... 08 / 14 / 04 .... Sumatra Sting
... 11 ...... 11 ..... 19 / 25 / 10 ......... 13 / 21 / 09 .... Subic Bay Admirals
... 13 ...... 14 ..... 15 / 15 / 12 ......... 10 / 08 / 10 .... Hell Valley Snow Monkeys
... 16 ...... 15 ..... 20 / 12 / 22 ......... 14 / 19 / 12 .... Pontianak Firebirds
... 18 ...... 17 ..... 05 / 03 / 16 ......... 17 / 11 / 20 .... Tibet Psychonauts
... 19 ...... 20 ..... 17 / 08 / 23 ......... 19 / 16 / 19 .... Salford Storm
... 21 ...... 21 ..... 23 / 26 / 19 ......... 22 / 17 / 22 .... Brutal Deluxe
... 22 ...... 22 ..... 21 / 19 / 21 ......... 21 / 12 / 21 .... Phuket Water Dragons
... 26 ...... 26 ..... 26 / 31 / 20 ......... 24 / 26 / 23 .... Pingree Grove Pits
... 29 ...... 29 ..... 30 / 30 / 27 ......... 29 / 28 / 30 .... Manila Cyberballers
... 30 ...... 30 ..... 31 / 29 / 29 ......... 32 / 29 / 32 .... Alpha Beta's
... 31 ...... 31 ..... 28 / 11 / 32 ......... 26 / 25 / 29 .... Mount Fiji Dogs
The data from these matrices are passed to a common sheet for all the data I am interested in. A few more things are calculated here (percentages). After this, data is passed to the second set of matrices which simulate out various parts of the season. Things like how many yards you would gain or points allowed. The setup is based on this league projector: http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=447611
The third set of matrices brings everything together and does a comparative analysis to determine who would win a head to head matchup if everyone played all 31 other teams. It then reports to a matrix similar to the one I use to input who won or lost. I then have this matrix dump the wins, losses, and ties into the common sheet. The team with the most wins gets the highest power rank and so on down.
What is taken into account in the determination of who won or lost is this:
-predicted points scored and allowed
-how likely you are to win based on record quality (i.e. who is more likely to beat good teams and not lose to bad ones)
-predicted yards gained and allowed
-predicted amount of turnovers for and against
This is the formula so far
Your points = League average points per game*percent chance of win based on record + the points you are predicted to score + predicted yards / league average yards per point + predicted turnover ratio x 3
Your opponent gets the same formula. The team with the higher number of points wins that game.
I also put offense and defense ranks on there. Right now they are based on the predicted number of yards.
O=Overall
P=Pass
R=Rush
If you are interested in using this spreadsheet head here:
http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=791249
=================================================================================================
======
Week 15
======
Rank ..... Prv …… Offense ............ Defense ...... Team
................................ O/P/R .................. O/P/R
Garuda
... 02 ...... 03 ..... 01 / 04 / 07 ......... 04 / 05 / 04 .... The Elephant Riders
... 03 ...... 04 ..... 03 / 01 / 14 ......... 01 / 01 / 02 .... Sault Ste Marie Metalheads
... 04 ...... 05 ..... 06 / 10 / 08 ......... 02 / 04 / 05 .... San Fran Gold Rush
... 09 ...... 09 ..... 18 / 22 / 12 ......... 09 / 07 / 08 .... Thailand Cheap Toys
... 10 ...... 11 ..... 11 / 16 / 11 ......... 10 / 08 / 11 .... Palembang Tigers
... 12 ...... 14 ..... 13 / 27 / 01 ......... 07 / 02 / 12 .... Tibetan Drunk Monks
... 13 ...... 13 ..... 12 / 20 / 09 ......... 15 / 23 / 15 .... Garut Fire Horses
... 16 ...... 15 ..... 05 / 13 / 02 ......... 16 / 21 / 16 .... The Pretenders
... 18 ...... 20 ..... 10 / 24 / 03 ......... 17 / 16 / 17 .... Arctic Avalanche
... 19 ...... 18 ..... 16 / 14 / 15 ......... 20 / 17 / 18 .... Shanghai Cheetahs
... 23 ...... 24 ..... 22 / 09 / 24 ......... 25 / 19 / 26 .... Thung Yai Tigers
... 24 ...... 23 ..... 27 / 17 / 28 ......... 23 / 22 / 24 .... Midway Maulers
... 25 ...... 25 ..... 24 / 03 / 30 ......... 31 / 32 / 28 .... Shanghai Shadow Dragons
... 27 ...... 27 ..... 26 / 21 / 26 ......... 28 / 30 / 25 .... Kyoto Samurai
... 28 ...... 28 ..... 29 / 28 / 25 ......... 27 / 27 / 27 .... SBI Waves
... 32 ...... 32 ..... 32 / 32 / 31 ......... 30 / 31 / 31 .... Hanoi Predators
Naga
... 01 ...... 02 ..... 08 / 05 / 17 ......... 05 / 14 / 01 .... Algeria Addiction
... 05 ...... 07 ..... 07 / 15 / 04 ......... 03 / 03 / 06 .... Cambodia Mountain Men
... 06 ...... 01 ..... 09 / 06 / 19 ......... 12 / 10 / 14 .... Jakarta Yellow Devils
... 07 ...... 06 ..... 02 / 07 / 05 ......... 08 / 13 / 03 .... Sumatra Sting
... 08 ...... 08 ..... 15 / 25 / 06 ......... 06 / 06 / 07 .... Singapore J.B. Lions
... 11 ...... 12 ..... 20 / 23 / 16 ......... 14 / 24 / 09 .... Subic Bay Admirals
... 14 ...... 10 ..... 14 / 19 / 10 ......... 11 / 09 / 10 .... Hell Valley Snow Monkeys
... 15 ...... 16 ..... 19 / 12 / 21 ......... 13 / 15 / 13 .... Pontianak Firebirds
... 17 ...... 17 ..... 04 / 02 / 13 ......... 18 / 12 / 20 .... Tibet Psychonauts
... 20 ...... 19 ..... 17 / 08 / 23 ......... 21 / 18 / 19 .... Salford Storm
... 21 ...... 21 ..... 23 / 26 / 18 ......... 22 / 20 / 22 .... Brutal Deluxe
... 22 ...... 22 ..... 21 / 18 / 22 ......... 19 / 11 / 21 .... Phuket Water Dragons
... 26 ...... 26 ..... 25 / 31 / 20 ......... 24 / 26 / 23 .... Pingree Grove Pits
... 29 ...... 29 ..... 30 / 29 / 27 ......... 29 / 28 / 30 .... Manila Cyberballers
... 30 ...... 30 ..... 31 / 30 / 29 ......... 32 / 29 / 32 .... Alpha Beta's
... 31 ...... 31 ..... 28 / 11 / 32 ......... 26 / 25 / 29 .... Mount Fiji Dogs
======
Week 16
======
Rank ..... Prv …… Offense ............ Defense ...... Team
................................ O/P/R .................. O/P/R
Garuda
... 02 ...... 02 ..... 01 / 02 / 07 ......... 03 / 06 / 03 .... The Elephant Riders
... 03 ...... 04 ..... 06 / 10 / 08 ......... 04 / 04 / 06 .... San Fran Gold Rush
... 04 ...... 03 ..... 02 / 01 / 15 ......... 01 / 02 / 02 .... Sault Ste Marie Metalheads
... 08 ...... 09 ..... 18 / 22 / 11 ......... 09 / 07 / 08 .... Thailand Cheap Toys
... 10 ...... 10 ..... 16 / 16 / 13 ......... 11 / 09 / 11 .... Palembang Tigers
... 12 ...... 13 ..... 11 / 17 / 09 ......... 15 / 20 / 14 .... Garut Fire Horses
... 14 ...... 12 ..... 10 / 27 / 01 ......... 07 / 01 / 13 .... Tibetan Drunk Monks
... 15 ...... 16 ..... 04 / 13 / 02 ......... 18 / 23 / 16 .... The Manila Guerrillas
... 17 ...... 19 ..... 14 / 14 / 14 ......... 16 / 15 / 17 .... Shanghai Cheetahs
... 20 ...... 18 ..... 12 / 23 / 04 ......... 20 / 22 / 18 .... Arctic Avalanche
... 23 ...... 23 ..... 22 / 09 / 24 ......... 25 / 18 / 25 .... Thung Yai Tigers
... 24 ...... 24 ..... 27 / 20 / 28 ......... 23 / 24 / 24 .... Midway Maulers
... 25 ...... 25 ..... 24 / 04 / 30 ......... 31 / 32 / 28 .... Shanghai Shadow Dragons
... 27 ...... 27 ..... 25 / 21 / 26 ......... 28 / 30 / 26 .... Kyoto Samurai
... 28 ...... 28 ..... 29 / 28 / 25 ......... 27 / 27 / 27 .... SBI Waves
... 32 ...... 32 ..... 32 / 32 / 31 ......... 30 / 31 / 31 .... Hanoi Predators
Naga
... 01 ...... 01 ..... 08 / 05 / 17 ......... 05 / 13 / 01 .... Algeria Addiction
... 05 ...... 05 ..... 07 / 18 / 03 ......... 02 / 03 / 05 .... Cambodia Mountain Men
... 06 ...... 08 ..... 13 / 24 / 05 ......... 06 / 05 / 07 .... Singapore J.B. Lions
... 07 ...... 06 ..... 09 / 06 / 18 ......... 12 / 10 / 15 .... Jakarta Yellow Devils
... 09 ...... 07 ..... 03 / 07 / 06 ......... 08 / 14 / 04 .... Sumatra Sting
... 11 ...... 11 ..... 19 / 25 / 10 ......... 13 / 21 / 09 .... Subic Bay Admirals
... 13 ...... 14 ..... 15 / 15 / 12 ......... 10 / 08 / 10 .... Hell Valley Snow Monkeys
... 16 ...... 15 ..... 20 / 12 / 22 ......... 14 / 19 / 12 .... Pontianak Firebirds
... 18 ...... 17 ..... 05 / 03 / 16 ......... 17 / 11 / 20 .... Tibet Psychonauts
... 19 ...... 20 ..... 17 / 08 / 23 ......... 19 / 16 / 19 .... Salford Storm
... 21 ...... 21 ..... 23 / 26 / 19 ......... 22 / 17 / 22 .... Brutal Deluxe
... 22 ...... 22 ..... 21 / 19 / 21 ......... 21 / 12 / 21 .... Phuket Water Dragons
... 26 ...... 26 ..... 26 / 31 / 20 ......... 24 / 26 / 23 .... Pingree Grove Pits
... 29 ...... 29 ..... 30 / 30 / 27 ......... 29 / 28 / 30 .... Manila Cyberballers
... 30 ...... 30 ..... 31 / 29 / 29 ......... 32 / 29 / 32 .... Alpha Beta's
... 31 ...... 31 ..... 28 / 11 / 32 ......... 26 / 25 / 29 .... Mount Fiji Dogs
Last edited Dec 11, 2008 08:18:44
