Week 1: 14-1 (7-1 Alpha, 7-0 Zeta [1 tie])
Week 2: 15-1 (7-1 Alpha, 8-0 Zeta)
Week 3: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 4: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 5: 13-3 (8-0 Alpha, 5-3 Zeta)
Week 6: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 7: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 8: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 9: 13-3 (6-2 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 10: 12-4 (6-2 Alpha, 6-2 Zeta)
Week 11: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 12: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 13: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 14: 13-3 (7-1 Alpha, 6-2 Zeta)
Week 15: 15-1 (7-1 Alpha, 8-0 Zeta)
Week 16: 13-3 (Alpha vs. Zeta)
If you pay attention to the numbers my formula produces, you probably notice that 55 seems to be a magic number. Only 1 or 2 games have gone the other way when the prediction is over 55. With that said, the Round 1 games look like good ones and the rest of the playoffs will be even better. I wouldn't put too much money on these predictions, but I thought I would keep it up.
Ok, so I went back and looked for the over 55 upsets and here they are:
Week 4
62.20 (63.71) - Warriors (17) over Pirates (33)
Week 10
62.87 (56.31) - Nizhny Novgorod Bulldogs (14) over Minsk Fire (17)
56.13 (55.96) - River City Ransom (13) over Everett Wildcats (20)
Week 16
56.18 (57.46) - River City Ransom (10) over Liverpool Poison (43)
Playoffs - Round 1
------------------
64.47 (62.27) - Chernobyl Disaster over Chernobyl CHUDS
-Now the playoffs are here and the Disaster's perfect regular season means nothing more than a #1 seed. The CHUDS had some pretty good wins over quality opponents and earned their spot with a 1-point victory over Diaper. But they still haven't been able to knock off a top team. The Battle of Chernobyl II should end similar to the first matchup.
58.28 (53.99) - Brown Bay Packers over Everett Wildcats
-Everett finished the season strong and got a win over another playoff team (Impalers). They get a chance to prove how far they've come with this matchup. The score may not be as bad as the first matchup with Brown Bay, but it should be a decisive win for the Packers.
55.89 (52.98) - East Berlin Blitzkrieg over Nizhny Novgorod Bulldogs
-East Berlin could have easily been an #1 seed. Their 2 losses were only by a combined 14 points. The Bulldogs got a big win against Athens, but haven't beaten a top Alpha team. This could be a repeat of the Week 3 game.
54.05 (51.18) - Spanish Inquisition over Boston Piggers
-The Inquisition defense started giving up more points toward the end of the season, but with an opponent's high score of 23, they can keep any game close. The Piggers are the Bulldogs of Zeta. They have good wins, but none over a top Zeta team. This one might not be as close as the Week 10 meeting.
52.81 (49.14) - Romania Roadhouse Rowdies over The Dark Knights
-This looks to be a close matchup. But The Dark Knights have been a little erratic this season. The best example is the 32-point Week 11 loss to the Rowdies, followed by only a 2-point loss to the Disaster. Which team will show up in the playoffs? It may not matter. The Rowdies have been dominate in their wins and only have losses to the 2 teams above them.
51.67 (49.27) - Krakow Krakodiles over Rotterdam Rampage
-This looks like another close matchup. Rotterdam has a lot of wins, but the losses are usually blow-outs against the top teams. Krakow got a tough Zeta draw and without that would be only a 2 loss team. This should be a repeat of the Week 4 matchup.
51.35 (51.37) - Odessa Pipers over Targoviste Impalers
-Both teams ended the season strong with only 1 loss in their last 7 games. Targoviste got the best of the Week 3 matchup, but with both teams finishing strong, that game doesn't mean much. My formula says Odessa, so I guess this is the Round 1 upset.
50.69 (50.10) - Barcelona Chupacabras over Belgrade Bears
-Barcelona has proved to be a tough matchup for every team. Their only big loss was to Brown Bay. Only thing is, that was followed by a loss to the Bears. Belgrade's only losses have come to top teams and they even kept it close with the Disaster. This may be a close game, but I'm going to say the Chups get the close win this time.
Week 2: 15-1 (7-1 Alpha, 8-0 Zeta)
Week 3: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 4: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 5: 13-3 (8-0 Alpha, 5-3 Zeta)
Week 6: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 7: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 8: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 9: 13-3 (6-2 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 10: 12-4 (6-2 Alpha, 6-2 Zeta)
Week 11: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 12: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 13: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 14: 13-3 (7-1 Alpha, 6-2 Zeta)
Week 15: 15-1 (7-1 Alpha, 8-0 Zeta)
Week 16: 13-3 (Alpha vs. Zeta)
If you pay attention to the numbers my formula produces, you probably notice that 55 seems to be a magic number. Only 1 or 2 games have gone the other way when the prediction is over 55. With that said, the Round 1 games look like good ones and the rest of the playoffs will be even better. I wouldn't put too much money on these predictions, but I thought I would keep it up.
Ok, so I went back and looked for the over 55 upsets and here they are:
Week 4
62.20 (63.71) - Warriors (17) over Pirates (33)
Week 10
62.87 (56.31) - Nizhny Novgorod Bulldogs (14) over Minsk Fire (17)
56.13 (55.96) - River City Ransom (13) over Everett Wildcats (20)
Week 16
56.18 (57.46) - River City Ransom (10) over Liverpool Poison (43)
Playoffs - Round 1
------------------
64.47 (62.27) - Chernobyl Disaster over Chernobyl CHUDS
-Now the playoffs are here and the Disaster's perfect regular season means nothing more than a #1 seed. The CHUDS had some pretty good wins over quality opponents and earned their spot with a 1-point victory over Diaper. But they still haven't been able to knock off a top team. The Battle of Chernobyl II should end similar to the first matchup.
58.28 (53.99) - Brown Bay Packers over Everett Wildcats
-Everett finished the season strong and got a win over another playoff team (Impalers). They get a chance to prove how far they've come with this matchup. The score may not be as bad as the first matchup with Brown Bay, but it should be a decisive win for the Packers.
55.89 (52.98) - East Berlin Blitzkrieg over Nizhny Novgorod Bulldogs
-East Berlin could have easily been an #1 seed. Their 2 losses were only by a combined 14 points. The Bulldogs got a big win against Athens, but haven't beaten a top Alpha team. This could be a repeat of the Week 3 game.
54.05 (51.18) - Spanish Inquisition over Boston Piggers
-The Inquisition defense started giving up more points toward the end of the season, but with an opponent's high score of 23, they can keep any game close. The Piggers are the Bulldogs of Zeta. They have good wins, but none over a top Zeta team. This one might not be as close as the Week 10 meeting.
52.81 (49.14) - Romania Roadhouse Rowdies over The Dark Knights
-This looks to be a close matchup. But The Dark Knights have been a little erratic this season. The best example is the 32-point Week 11 loss to the Rowdies, followed by only a 2-point loss to the Disaster. Which team will show up in the playoffs? It may not matter. The Rowdies have been dominate in their wins and only have losses to the 2 teams above them.
51.67 (49.27) - Krakow Krakodiles over Rotterdam Rampage
-This looks like another close matchup. Rotterdam has a lot of wins, but the losses are usually blow-outs against the top teams. Krakow got a tough Zeta draw and without that would be only a 2 loss team. This should be a repeat of the Week 4 matchup.
51.35 (51.37) - Odessa Pipers over Targoviste Impalers
-Both teams ended the season strong with only 1 loss in their last 7 games. Targoviste got the best of the Week 3 matchup, but with both teams finishing strong, that game doesn't mean much. My formula says Odessa, so I guess this is the Round 1 upset.
50.69 (50.10) - Barcelona Chupacabras over Belgrade Bears
-Barcelona has proved to be a tough matchup for every team. Their only big loss was to Brown Bay. Only thing is, that was followed by a loss to the Bears. Belgrade's only losses have come to top teams and they even kept it close with the Disaster. This may be a close game, but I'm going to say the Chups get the close win this time.
Last edited Oct 23, 2008 08:46:41
