Warrior General Games

I've done this in previous leagues, so why not here. Basically, a review of the upcoming 4 weeks of games, playoff implications and what not. Anything written here is my own observations and not based on any formula, so take it for what it is.

Zeta Conference

Toughest Remaining Schedules

Brisbane Gods (44-4)
- Key Matchups: Week 13 Heat, Week 14 Kava Sharks, Week 15 Nites, Week 16 TIT's (WOW!)

Banzai Pipeline 'Nites (31-17)
- Key Matchups: Week 13 Kava Sharks, Week 14 Titans, Week 15 Gods (slightly tougher rating than Vanuatu & Blitz b/c all 3 are in-conference)

Co-op City Blitz (31-17)
- Key Matchups: Week 14 Heat, Week 15 Kava Sharks, Week 16 Tide (slightly tougher rating than Vanuatu due to out of conference match)

Vanuatu Kava Sharks (31-17)
- Key Matchups: Week 13 Nites, Week 14 Gods, Week 16 Sea Turtles

Nauru Tiger Sharks (28-20)
- Key Matchups: Week 13 Auha, Week 14 Fighters, Week 15 Stingers, Week 16 Machine

Fiji Stingers (26-22)
- Key Matchups: Week 13 Thorny Devils, Week 14 Incinerators, Week 16 Fighting Squirrels

Rawle Tech Titans (23-25)
- Key Matchups: Week 14 Nites, Week 15 Auha, Week 16 Strike (sub .500 total opponent record skewed by Dawg Pound)

Easiest Remaining Schedules

Brisbane Heat (18-30)
- Key Matchup: Week 13 Gods

IC Incinerators (18-30)
- Key Matchups: Week 14 Stingers, Week 16 Pioneers (slightly tougher rating than Heat due to two tougher matchups vs. one)

Tongan Crimson Auha (19-29)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Titans, Week 16 Burning Pride

Melbourne Thorny Devils (19-29)
- Key Matchups: Week 13 Stingers, Week 16 Invaders (slightly tougher rating than Auha due to what looks like a tougher out of conference match)

Big Island Growas (21-27)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Heat, Week 16 Mustangs

Eliminated
- Saipan Fighters (1-5 vs. the teams they can catch with a 4-0 finish. With only 1 meaningful conference game left, they can't even play the role of spoiler this season)
- Jakarta Men O'War (Can't catch any current playoff teams, looking to next season)
- Cleveland Dawg Pound (Can't catch any current playoff teams, looking to next season)
- Great Barrier Reef Sharks (Relegation pending to AAA)

Key Week 13 Matchups

#1 - Nites vs. Kava Sharks (A Nites win puts them ever closer to the #1 seed. A Vanuatu win muddies the water again and gives the Heat a shot at the #1 seed if they can handle the Gods. What a week!)

BOLD PREDICTION: Nites 38, Kava Sharks 13

#2 - Heat vs. Gods (Battle for home playoff position and Gods trying to prove this is a top 4, not a top 3. Heat want to close out in style and earn a top spot heading into the playoffs.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Heat 30, Gods 17

#3 - Thorny Devils vs. Stingers (Both teams vying not only for playoff position, but for the right to play in the playoffs. A classic first-even match between the new kids from Zeta AAA#1 and AAA#2)

BOLD PREDICTION: Thorny Devils 17, Stingers 15

#4 - Tiger Sharks vs. Crimson Auha (A loss and the Tiger Sharks are officially eliminated. The Auha need this win to keep up the fight for one of the final playoff spots. Not as big as the matchups above, but just as important for playoff seeding.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Crimson Auha 45, Tiger Sharks 15

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Alpha Conference Note: I'm stopping at the Strike. Even though Perth isn't mathematically eliminated per say, their only wins so far are vs. teams below them, and also a loss to a team below them. If they pull off an upset, I'll feel like an ass and included them in next week's rankings.

Toughest Remaining Schedules

Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (32-16)
Key Matchups: Week 13 Tide, Week 14 Strike, Week 15 Invaders, Week 16 Stingers

Grinnell Pioneers (28-20)
- Key Matchups: Week 14 TiT's, Week 15 Bandits, Week 16 Incinerators

Tonga Ikale Tahi (26-22)
Key Matchups: Week 14 Pioneers, Week 15 Mustangs, Week 16 Gods

Canberra Strike (22-26)
- Key Matchups: Week 14 Fighting Squirrels, Week 15 Burning Pride, Week 16 Titans (Slightly tougher schedule than Burning Pride, game vs. Warriors skews it a tiny bit)

New Zealand Burning Pride (22-26)
Key Matchups: Week 14 Tide, Week 15 Strike, Week 16 Crimson Auha (Game vs. Auckland makes record look easier than it is)

Brantford Mustangs (24-24)
Key Matchups: Week 13 Sea Turtles, Week 15 TiT's, Week 16 Growas

Fiji Sea Turtles (24-24)
Key Matchups: Week 13 Mustangs, Week 16 Kava Sharks (Slightly easier schedule as two games should be easy wins vs. 1 for Mustangs)

Easiest Remaining Schedules

Mean Machine (10-38)
- Key Matchups: Week 13 Bandits

West Scranton Invaders (16-32)
Key Matchups: Week 15 Fighting Squirrels, Week 16 Thorny Devils

East Coast Tide (21-27)
Key Matchups: Week 13 Fighting Squirrels, Week 14 Burning Pride

Brisbane Bandits (20-28)
- Key Matchups: Week 13 Machine, Week 15 Pioneers (Despite record, tougher schedule as they have to face 12-0 Machine)

Eliminated
- Perth Scorpions (see note above -- all losses vs. teams ahead of them this season)
- Emerald City Flying Monkeys (While they could achieve 6-wins, the W/L vs. teams above they could tie knocks them out)
- Auckland Flames (While they could achieve 6-wins, the W/L vs. teams above they could tie knocks them out)
- Aussie Cardinals (While they could achieve 6-wins, the W/L vs. teams above they could tie knocks them out)
- New Zealand Warriors (Relegation Pending)

Key Week 13 Matchups

#1 - Mustangs vs. Sea Turtles (The Mustangs are fighting for a home game while the Sea Turtles are fighting for their playoff lives. This should be a good one, and I think the drive to make the playoffs gives Fiji this one in a nail biter.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Sea Turtles 31, Mustangs 30

#2 - Tide vs. Fighting Squirrels (The Tide are looking to secure a top 4 spot and have the advantage right now with a game in hand, while the Fighting Squirrels are just looking right now to lock up a playoff position, or at least they should be! I'm taking the Tide's defense in this one.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Tide 24, Fighting Squirrels 12

#3 - Bandits vs. Machine (This is the last bump in the road for the Machine who only need to keep focused as they can coast into the playoffs. I don't think the Bandits can handle the Machine, but regardless it is an important game for Brisbane in their quest for a playoff spot.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Machine 59, Bandits 10

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Great work!

Excellent work

Yeah. Any wins for the Gods now are just a bonus. We'd like to prove ourselves and all that, but if I had to choose I'd rather do it in the postseason .

Originally posted by sarcasticsleuth
Yeah. Any wins for the Gods now are just a bonus. We'd like to prove ourselves and all that, but if I had to choose I'd rather do it in the postseason .

I (respectfully) beg to differ, your remaining games versus IC's will likely decide who gets the home playoff game and who gets the away game. Neither of us can afford a loss in the last 4 so I certainly don't envy your remaining schedule.
Of course, Rawle Tech (having beaten IC) could move up if they win out, and if Fiji Stingers beat us they may move up also.

It is gonna be fun to watch unfold.

Edit: Not to discount the teams that will not make the playoffs because they can always be dangerous when there is nothing to lose.

Absolutely brutal schedule for us heading into the playoffs. I think IC has the inside track on that last home playoff game to be honest, in a large part due to having the tiebreaker over us. IC should beat Jakarta and Saipan at least, giving you guys 11 wins. This means we have to win two of those final 4 at a minimum to surpass you. Now, if you beat the Stingers or Pioneers on top of that, it makes our task even more difficult.

I predict IC gets the 4th seed, the Gods get the 5th, and we'll have a great rematch in the opening round.

Originally posted by The Lurker

I predict IC gets the 4th seed, the Gods get the 5th, and we'll have a great rematch in the opening round.

That is kinda the way I see it (barring an upset against us by Saipan or Jakarta) as well due to your schedule. But wouldn't you know.... now that we (hopefully) get our first home playoff game, Bort goes and implements playoff revenue sharing this season.

When can I catch a freaking (financial) break? Jeebus!

Edit: Of course with your brutal schedule I might end up with a Rawle Tech/MTD/Stingers rematch, any of which I would love to see, especially RTT.

Yeah that's what I meant... revenue sharing makes homefield even less important than it already is. Plus the Gods have an ass-load of money because we were really good back in the day when you could sell tickets at 5x.

great write up as always SCACE, this is going to get better and better every season as the level of competition rises.

I thought we had the most difficult schedule remaining, and now I know for sure, and it's not even close.

alpha up

great job

YOU DA MAN SCACE....nice write up...

(but my prediction for the Mustang game will be 40-24...Mustangs... )

Great job Scace. I'm nervous cuse Wagga did beat us last season with a nice upset win.