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Forum > Southeast Asia AA Leagues > Southeast Asia AA #3 > Alpha Playoff Outlook - 6 Games to Go!
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jaymitch84
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With 6 games left, things can still shuffle a LOT, but here is a look at how the playoffs are shaping up at the moment. I included the top 10 teams, because I think it is pretty safe to say that everyone from 11th place and lower is out of contention. After writing this up, the only thing that has become clear to me is that we are going to be in for a wild ride these final 6 weeks...with Week 15 potentially being the most wild of all depending on how things go down.

1. Maui 10-0

- They've got the itch now...that #1 seed seems closer than ever. They only have two opponents left who have a chance of putting up a fight...and they'd have to lose both to have any chance of losing the 1 seed.

Biggest Game Remaining: Week 12 vs. Ujung. Win this game and Maui has smooth sailing the final 4 games on the way to an unbeaten record.

My Prediction: Top Seed

2. Davao 9-1

- Sitting alone at 2 right now, the Dogs are a Maui loss away from that undefeated record. Still have four relatively tough games remaining, but I envision them going either 6-0 or 5-1 (at worst) the rest of the way.

Biggest Game Remaining: Week 11 vs. Buffalo. If a loss is going to happen, this is the game it would happen in.

Prediction: 3 Seed.

3. Singapore 8-2

- 4 of their remaining games are in the bag already. Nose has 2 more warm up games before a big matchup with the Rampage in Week 13. Keep an eye out...depending on how the chips fall, their Week 15 game with Burma could potentially be a fight for a first round home playoff game.

Biggest Remaining Game: Week 13 vs. Buffalo. It seems pretty clear that this game will have major seeding implications.

Prediction: 4 Seed.

4. Buffalo 8-2

- A heartbreaker of a loss to Maui in Week 8 has the Rampage sitting on the cusp of losing a home playoff game all together. The next four games for the Rampage are huge for playoff purposes for all teams involved, as these four opponents are currently seeded 2nd, 7th, 3rd, and 8th.

Biggest Remaining Game: Week 11 vs. Davao/Week 13 vs. Singapore. Both games are of equal importance, in terms of trying to move up in the standings and in terms of fending off the Burma and Ujung attacks.

Prediction: 2 seed (come on, you really think I'm gonna predict us to lose any games? )

5. Burma 7-3

- Rough remaining schedule with Davao, Medan, Singapore, and Zeta's first place team Monte Crisco still on the docket. But on the bright side, the fact that they still play Davao and Singapore gives them an opportunity to play their way into a home playoff game.

Biggest Remaining Game: Week 15 vs. Singapore. Depending on where Ujung stands at this point in the season, the Bulldogs might be fighting Singapore for a spot in the top 4 heading into the playoffs.

Prediction: 6 seed.

6. Ujung 7-3

- I still don't understand this team. Double digit loss to Medan, but double digit win over Buffalo. The Pandang Warriors still have a big opportunity to prove they are as good as they believe they are, with the top 2 teams in the conference still sitting on the schedule.

Biggest Remaining Game: Week 15 vs. Davao. If they are within 1 game of Davao when this game arrives, we are looking at one hell of final week of conference play when you consider the importance of the other games going down that same day (Burma/Singapore and Medan/Chengdu).

Prediction: 5 seed.

7. Medan 6-4

- They are alone at 6-4, and if they can pull off a win against Buffalo in Week 12 and/or Burma in Week 14, the Shipwreckers could potentially crash the top 6 heading into the playoffs. More worrisome though is that they already lost to Bangkok, and still have the current 9th and 10th ranked teams on their schedule fighting to get in.

Biggest Remaining Game: Week 15 vs. Chengdu. There is a distinct possibility that the loser of this game gets shut out of the playoffs.

Prediction: 8 seed.

8. Bangkok 5-5

- A pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way has the Barfines sitting in about as good a shape as a team stuck in a tie for 8th place can be. Despite looking less than impressive against top teams, pulling off wins against both Medan and Chengdu are going to be BIG when tiebreakers start coming into play.

Biggest Remaining Game: Week 13 vs. 69Mafia. Forget about that sitting pretty comment with a loss in this game, and don't discount it with Mafia fighting for their playoff lives.

Prediction: 7 seed.

9. Chengdu 5-5

- After a 1-4 start, the season was beginning to look like a lost cause for the Vipers. But they've clawed their way back into a tie for 8th place. Maui and Davao are still on the schedule - that doesn't help at all - but playoffs are still in their sights.

Biggest Remaining Game: Week 15 vs. Medan. As previously mentioned, this game could be a playoff play-in game.

Prediction: OUT.

10. 69Mafia 4-6

- They don't have a single impressive victory on their schedule, and yet here they are, in a position where they could play their way into the playoffs. Two of their next 3 games are against the current 7th and 8th place teams in Medan and Bangkok.

Biggest Remaining Game: Week 11 vs. Medan/Week 13 vs. Bangkok. Both games are of equal importance. Wins and they are talking about crashing the playoffs, losses and they can start looking ahead to next year.

Prediction: OUT
Last edited Oct 10, 2008 21:23:46
 
Sahoj
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Oooh this is incredibly well written. I'm equally as excited about this
late half of the season.

Other things of note:

Ujung Pandang plays Maui in Week 12. These two teams have a history of playing
eachother often via scrimmages and matching up exceedingly well. This one will
probably be decided by no more than a field goal. I like Ujung Pandang in this
match up personally because they typically run well versus the 3-4. For all
my enthusiasm, I havn't figured out how to challenge Davao. We'll need
a defensive or special teams TD to stay in this game.

I see Buffalo has finally begun boosting their WR's and I think it's much
needed to put them in contention with the many top teams they'll be facing
in this late half of the season. Sakura at level 29+ could be a gamebreaker.

I think top teams have figured they need to pay special attention versus the
pass when going against Chengdu and Burma due to either their high pass
ratios or auto adjustment factors that rush towards the air. I don't expect
many more upsets from this area.


 
fattboy25
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Chengdu is a running team!
 
johncu
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Originally posted by Sahoj

I think top teams have figured they need to pay special attention versus the
pass when going against Chengdu and Burma due to either their high pass
ratios or auto adjustment factors that rush towards the air. I don't expect
many more upsets from this area.



OH NOOOO WE'VE BEEN FIGURED OUT!!!!

 
Sahoj
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I show you my incredible investigationalable skills daily.
 
fattboy25
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Originally posted by Sahoj
I show you my incredible investigationalable skills daily.


Damn you to hell!!!!

 
Sahoj
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Here we go. I know I'm not sleeping much monday night in anticipation
of this game.

Maui visits Warrior Stadium

During Season 4:
The Warriors defeat Maui midseason 15-10 in a defensive struggle.
Late in the season the two would have a rubber match in a scrimmage,
Maui wins in OT 23-20.

You have to give props to an undefeated squad like Maui in our league.
2 out of 3 of Ujung Pandang's losses have come from dropping a 4th quarter
lead. Maui is clearly running on all cylinders this season and is dangerous
in both the air and on the ground.

Match ups?
Defense?
Two of the most dominant front 7's in the league.
Maui's DE Colt Buster (20 sacks, 25 hurries)
Ujung's DT The Horseman (10 Sacks, 30 hurries)
I'd say these units are equal but I'll give the nod to
Maui's pass defense and secondary as an advantage via
their wins over Singapore and Burma.

Offense?
By the numbers, Maui and Ujung Pandang are nearly dead
even in passing statistics. These are smashmouth teams
who do it on the ground.
Ujung Pandang: 53 Rushing TD's. 4 Rushing TD's Allowed
Maui: 44 Rushing TD's. 5 Rushing TD's Allowed

Who wins? When the comparisons are this close you
take the home team. Warriors by 3.
Last edited Oct 12, 2008 21:09:21
 
johncu
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Good luck. I don't know how Maui does it but they get a ton of INT's.
 
Sahoj
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Gonna come down to luck. I've got a very tough tuner scrimmage versus
Saint Mary's School for the Blind tomorrow.. then we hit Maui with
everything we've got.
 
johncu
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LOL I had to look to make sure, but you really are playing Saint Mary's School for the Blind.
 
DaveKessler
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Originally posted by johncu
Good luck. I don't know how Maui does it but they get a ton of INT's.


Thats how they beat us.
 
jaymitch84
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Rampage 0-2 since I predicted we'd win out.

Oops.
 
Sahoj
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Looks like it's turtle versus turtle in the Ujung and Buffalo race. Hah.

Hmm, actually a high probability of Medan winning out now. Wild turn of
events.
Last edited Oct 14, 2008 06:52:35
 
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7. Medan 6-4

- They are alone at 6-4, and if they can pull off a win against Buffalo in Week 12 and/or Burma in Week 14, the Shipwreckers could potentially crash the top 6 heading into the playoffs. More worrisome though is that they already lost to Bangkok, and still have the current 9th and 10th ranked teams on their schedule fighting to get in.

you called it Jay...
 
jboogie
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dogs number three i chuckle lol powers as an owner has to play nice not me

go dogs maui we are ready for the playoffs we have you in our sights but not before we handle a few more games!
 
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