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Forum > Oceania AA Leagues > Oceania AA #2 > ZETA Conf. Week 6 Projections
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gatorfan
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Projected Standings

Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Christchurch Knightmares 16 0 0 100% 1,306 60
2 Tonga Thunderbirds 14 2 0 88% 2,058 353
3 Solomon Islands Alchemy 13 3 0 81% 1,984 284
4 The Four Horsemen 13 3 0 81% 1,355 342
5 Chinese Bandits 12 4 0 75% 888 308
6 El Fuego 12 4 0 75% 982 336
7 Mauna Kea Chenabogs 11 5 0 69% 1,195 497
8 Tasmania Devils 9 7 0 56% 717 309
9 Dunedin Wolverines 9 7 0 56% 945 352
10 Cimmerian Barbarians 7 9 0 44% 771 424
11 Coney Island Warriors 6 10 0 38% 1,026 682
12 Uluru Rockies 4 12 0 25% 486 720
13 Redscape Diplomats 4 12 0 25% 839 447
14 Tasmania Sand Gnats 2 14 0 13% 430 881
15 Brisbane Brown Bears 0 16 0 0% 0 4,057
16 Los Cabolo Sharks 0 16 0 0% 0 4,908



Toughest Remaining Schedule

Opponents'
Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Christchurch Knightmares 34 21 0 62% 2,435 1,345
2 Tasmania Sand Gnats 31 24 0 56% 2,777 2,964
3 Uluru Rockies 30 25 0 55% 3,021 2,961
4 Redscape Diplomats 30 25 0 55% 2,485 2,083
5 Cimmerian Barbarians 30 25 0 55% 2,470 2,194
6 Solomon Islands Alchemy 29 26 0 53% 2,322 2,252
7 Tasmania Devils 28 27 0 51% 2,803 2,317
8 Los Cabolo Sharks 28 27 0 51% 2,159 2,236
9 El Fuego 27 28 0 49% 2,925 2,044
10 Chinese Bandits 27 28 0 49% 2,795 2,165
11 Coney Island Warriors 27 28 0 49% 2,563 2,978
12 Brisbane Brown Bears 26 29 0 47% 2,131 2,380
13 Mauna Kea Chenabogs 24 31 0 44% 2,440 2,372
14 The Four Horsemen 23 32 0 42% 2,800 3,100
15 Tonga Thunderbirds 23 32 0 42% 2,536 3,132
16 Dunedin Wolverines 23 32 0 42% 2,126 4,265



Toughest Schedule So Far

Opponents'
Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Tonga Thunderbirds 16 4 0 80% 1,118 347
2 The Four Horsemen 13 7 0 65% 902 429
3 Dunedin Wolverines 12 8 0 60% 1,340 360
4 Mauna Kea Chenabogs 11 9 0 55% 881 1,079
5 Brisbane Brown Bears 11 9 0 55% 765 526
6 Los Cabolo Sharks 11 9 0 55% 702 407
7 Uluru Rockies 10 10 0 50% 1,032 501
8 El Fuego 10 10 0 50% 714 1,350
9 Chinese Bandits 10 10 0 50% 627 1,341
10 Solomon Islands Alchemy 9 11 0 45% 1,246 1,188
11 Cimmerian Barbarians 9 11 0 45% 1,171 1,220
12 Tasmania Sand Gnats 9 11 0 45% 909 568
13 Tasmania Devils 9 11 0 45% 843 1,214
14 Coney Island Warriors 8 12 0 40% 695 1,208
15 Redscape Diplomats 7 13 0 35% 1,029 1,273
16 Christchurch Knightmares 5 15 0 25% 858 1,821



Toughest Opponents in Defeats

Opponents'
Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Chinese Bandits 4 0 0 100% 221 89
2 El Fuego 4 0 0 100% 217 89
3 The Four Horsemen 4 0 0 100% 216 90
4 Mauna Kea Chenabogs 4 0 0 100% 195 72
5 Cimmerian Barbarians 9 3 0 75% 1,100 280
6 Tasmania Devils 9 3 0 75% 781 282
7 Dunedin Wolverines 9 3 0 75% 731 192
8 Uluru Rockies 9 3 0 75% 696 231
9 Coney Island Warriors 6 2 0 75% 422 195
10 Solomon Islands Alchemy 8 4 0 67% 961 189
11 Brisbane Brown Bears 11 9 0 55% 765 526
12 Los Cabolo Sharks 11 9 0 55% 702 407
13 Tasmania Sand Gnats 9 11 0 45% 909 568
14 Redscape Diplomats 7 9 0 44% 1,029 369



Toughest Opponents in Victories

Opponents'
Rk Team W L T % PF PA
1 Tonga Thunderbirds 16 4 0 80% 1,118 347
2 The Four Horsemen 9 7 0 56% 686 339
3 Mauna Kea Chenabogs 7 9 0 44% 686 1,007
4 Dunedin Wolverines 3 5 0 38% 609 168
5 El Fuego 6 10 0 38% 497 1,261
6 Chinese Bandits 6 10 0 38% 406 1,252
7 Christchurch Knightmares 5 15 0 25% 858 1,821
8 Coney Island Warriors 2 10 0 17% 273 1,013
9 Uluru Rockies 1 7 0 13% 336 270
10 Solomon Islands Alchemy 1 7 0 13% 285 999
11 Cimmerian Barbarians 0 8 0 0% 71 940
12 Tasmania Devils 0 8 0 0% 62 932
13 Redscape Diplomats 0 4 0 0% 0 904



WEEK 6 GAME PREDICTIONS:

Knightmares 92, Warriors 3

Chenabogs 53, Rockies 14

Thunderbirds 550, Brown Bears 0

El Fuego 37, Diplomats 21

Four Horsemen 473, Sharks 0

Alchemy 54, Bandits 19

Wolverines 42, Sand Gnats 10

Barbarians 14, Devils 14

 
SWVAHoo
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Thanks for doing these, GF!

Though I will take the Brown Bears with that spread this week. I don't think we have quite enough.
 
Willam
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So who are Tonga's 2 losses supposed to come from?
 
gatorfan
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Originally posted by Willam
So who are Tonga's 2 losses supposed to come from?


The Knightmares and, believe it or not, the Alchemy. As I stated in the last week's projections, your conference's game predictions will be skewed due to the two gutted teams and the fact that everyone is putting up 200 points against them. Hopefully everything will 'normal out' around midseason.
 
Sarg01
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Looking at the "toughest schedule so far" list, it's clear to see why these rankings come up the way they do.

1 Tonga Thunderbirds 16 4 0 80% 1,118 347
...
16 Christchurch Knightmares 5 15 0 25% 858 1,821


Of course, you can only play who is on your schedule, so it can't be taken as condemnation of Christchurch, but Tonga does have a legitimate beef with the system.
 
Sarg01
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Also interesting how we project two 0-16 teams in the conference. I think they broke the spreadsheet.
 
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Originally posted by Sarg01
Also interesting how we project two 0-16 teams in the conference. I think they broke the spreadsheet.


The spreadsheet doesn't know how to treat the week 16 games. It will often credit each team playing with a win. Right now it looks like there are 4 more wins than losses for this division. I haven't don the math but I bet that doesn't match with the Alpha results.

Edit: Of course, I forgot they play each other. My spreadsheet doesn't have two 0-16 teams, I think a mistake was made here.
Last edited Sep 30, 2008 09:29:52
 
gatorfan
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The problem is that neither the Brown Bears nor the Sharks have scored any points. I guess the spreadsheet predicts the PF & PA based on the scoring patterns. Right now the spreadsheet shows a 0 - 0 score for the Brown Bears vs. the Sharks....hence two 0-16 teams. Unfortunately he locked the spreadsheet so I am unable to fix the problem.
 
gatorfan
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Originally posted by Sarg01
Looking at the "toughest schedule so far" list, it's clear to see why these rankings come up the way they do.

1 Tonga Thunderbirds 16 4 0 80% 1,118 347
...
16 Christchurch Knightmares 5 15 0 25% 858 1,821


Of course, you can only play who is on your schedule, so it can't be taken as condemnation of Christchurch, but Tonga does have a legitimate beef with the system.


Agreed. As the season progresses, however, the spreadsheet becomes more accurate. At this point it's just added entertainment....kind of like the AP poll. Heh, heh.
 
SWVAHoo
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Originally posted by gatorfan
Originally posted by Sarg01

Looking at the "toughest schedule so far" list, it's clear to see why these rankings come up the way they do.

1 Tonga Thunderbirds 16 4 0 80% 1,118 347
...
16 Christchurch Knightmares 5 15 0 25% 858 1,821


Of course, you can only play who is on your schedule, so it can't be taken as condemnation of Christchurch, but Tonga does have a legitimate beef with the system.


Agreed. As the season progresses, however, the spreadsheet becomes more accurate. At this point it's just added entertainment....kind of like the AP poll. Heh, heh.


So, we're like Auburn 2004, right? Undefeated, played the toughest competition save 1 team, yet are on the outside looking in. I get it!

Nah, you can only play who's in front of you, and it'll all balance out. Starting with Week 6.

 
KevinM
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Originally posted by gatorfan
Originally posted by Willam

So who are Tonga's 2 losses supposed to come from?


The Knightmares and, believe it or not, the Alchemy. As I stated in the last week's projections, your conference's game predictions will be skewed due to the two gutted teams and the fact that everyone is putting up 200 points against them. Hopefully everything will 'normal out' around midseason.


Lolz. If we manage 10 wins, let alone that 13-3, I'll be ecstatic. I figured that pasting by El Fuego would have put us in our place in the power rankings, but maybe our pasting was pretty strong compared to their other wins.
 
KevinM
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Originally posted by gatorfan
The problem is that neither the Brown Bears nor the Sharks have scored any points. I guess the spreadsheet predicts the PF & PA based on the scoring patterns. Right now the spreadsheet shows a 0 - 0 score for the Brown Bears vs. the Sharks....hence two 0-16 teams. Unfortunately he locked the spreadsheet so I am unable to fix the problem.


PM what's-his-name and he'll give you the password.
 
gatorfan
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He had a stroke of some sort and is incapacitated (at least that's what the forums said). Apparently it was very serious. I tried e-mailing him a while back and he didn't reply.
 
KevinM
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Oh damn... didn't know that.
 
beouf
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wow, didn't realize that. i wonder how old he was. i wouldn't think this would be a 40+ type game that the older generation would play, other than that, he could have been younger. either way, hate to hear of anyone having a stroke.
 
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