Forum > Pro Leagues > FFG Over/Under Wins in S76
Backes-to-Backes
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Novus
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Hmm... let's break this down. Full disclosure: I pretty much despise Felicus and darncat, but I've never found it useful to downplay or underestimate someone just because I don't like them. Quite the opposite... better to take them seriously, which makes revenge against them that much sweeter later. 
Last season Felicus played in a nothing league against a bunch of nobodies. However, they had a surprisingly impressive run through the Reg Pro Tourney. Granted, they did it with 79s against 73s, and they took full advantage of the fact that their Tourney opponents had very little game film on Felicus to work with thanks to Felicus intentionally moving into the easiest league they could. BUT... 73s are capable of beating 79s, and in the Tourney Felicus was able to keep that from happening. That counts for something.
He'll have 2 games each against these 5 teams:
Miami Roadfrogs - Miami didn't exactly set Nat Pro on fire last season, going 9-7 and notching only 1 win against a non-gutted team. Miami does have the best builds in the conference this season, but their record implies they don't know how to best use them. I think Miami and Felicus will split their two games. 1-1.
Alabama Tidesports Crimson Tide - Alabama had an impressive season but fell short in the playoffs. I don't see Felicus keeping up with them, and Bama should win both matchups. 1-3.
TEY5MOD - empty roster, should be 2 easy wins for Felicus. 3-3.
Paris - struggled in Reg Pro last season, always seems to struggle to reach their full potential. But they jump up and surprise people from time to time, and I think they'll do it here. Felicus and Paris split their games. 4-4.
Trill Nation - half-empty roster, looked terrible last season, probably won't be any better this season. Easy wins for Felicus. 6-4.
...and we're not even into inter-conference play, and I already have Felicus at 6 wins.
Let's look at Canada.
Gurupie and DC are empty roster teams, so that's 2 more wins for Felicus. Madison is a brand new team with a roster full of spare parts, CPU dots, and holes everywhere, so that should be a win for Felicus as well. That leaves All The King's Men, American Muscle, and Madtown Bucky. I don't see Felicus beating ATKM or AM, but they'd have a chance against MB. I think Felicus will go 1-2 against those 3.
That puts Felicus at 10-6 and in the playoffs, where they'll probably fall in the first round.
Even taking away any potential wins against real opponents, there's a lot of half-empty and totally-empty rosters in NA Pro. Felicus's floor is 7-9 if they lose to all legit teams and defeat all the incomplete-roster teams.
So, if you're really setting the over/under at 5, I'll take the over in a heartbeat.
Last season Felicus played in a nothing league against a bunch of nobodies. However, they had a surprisingly impressive run through the Reg Pro Tourney. Granted, they did it with 79s against 73s, and they took full advantage of the fact that their Tourney opponents had very little game film on Felicus to work with thanks to Felicus intentionally moving into the easiest league they could. BUT... 73s are capable of beating 79s, and in the Tourney Felicus was able to keep that from happening. That counts for something.
He'll have 2 games each against these 5 teams:
Miami Roadfrogs - Miami didn't exactly set Nat Pro on fire last season, going 9-7 and notching only 1 win against a non-gutted team. Miami does have the best builds in the conference this season, but their record implies they don't know how to best use them. I think Miami and Felicus will split their two games. 1-1.
Alabama Tidesports Crimson Tide - Alabama had an impressive season but fell short in the playoffs. I don't see Felicus keeping up with them, and Bama should win both matchups. 1-3.
TEY5MOD - empty roster, should be 2 easy wins for Felicus. 3-3.
Paris - struggled in Reg Pro last season, always seems to struggle to reach their full potential. But they jump up and surprise people from time to time, and I think they'll do it here. Felicus and Paris split their games. 4-4.
Trill Nation - half-empty roster, looked terrible last season, probably won't be any better this season. Easy wins for Felicus. 6-4.
...and we're not even into inter-conference play, and I already have Felicus at 6 wins.
Let's look at Canada.
Gurupie and DC are empty roster teams, so that's 2 more wins for Felicus. Madison is a brand new team with a roster full of spare parts, CPU dots, and holes everywhere, so that should be a win for Felicus as well. That leaves All The King's Men, American Muscle, and Madtown Bucky. I don't see Felicus beating ATKM or AM, but they'd have a chance against MB. I think Felicus will go 1-2 against those 3.
That puts Felicus at 10-6 and in the playoffs, where they'll probably fall in the first round.
Even taking away any potential wins against real opponents, there's a lot of half-empty and totally-empty rosters in NA Pro. Felicus's floor is 7-9 if they lose to all legit teams and defeat all the incomplete-roster teams.
So, if you're really setting the over/under at 5, I'll take the over in a heartbeat.
Guppy, Inc
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Originally posted by Novus
Madison is a brand new team with a roster full of spare parts, CPU dots, and holes everywhere, so that should be a win for Felicus as well.
Originally posted by Novus
So, if you're really setting the over/under at 5, I'll take the over in a heartbeat.
Madison is a brand new team with a roster full of spare parts, CPU dots, and holes everywhere, so that should be a win for Felicus as well.
Originally posted by Novus
So, if you're really setting the over/under at 5, I'll take the over in a heartbeat.
Novus
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Originally posted by Guppy, Inc
Guppy, if your roster fills in more, I'll re-assess. But Felicus at the moment has a fully-stocked human roster, and history tells me that's usually enough to take down a half-filled roster, no matter how badly coached the fully-human team is. But if you can prove me wrong, I'll be very happy to be wrong.
Guppy, if your roster fills in more, I'll re-assess. But Felicus at the moment has a fully-stocked human roster, and history tells me that's usually enough to take down a half-filled roster, no matter how badly coached the fully-human team is. But if you can prove me wrong, I'll be very happy to be wrong.
Edited by Novus on Oct 13, 2019 12:33:08
Harry Patronus Potter
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Originally posted by Novus
Hmm... let's break this down. Full disclosure: I pretty much despise Felicus and darncat, but I've never found it useful to downplay or underestimate someone just because I don't like them. Quite the opposite... better to take them seriously, which makes revenge against them that much sweeter later.
Last season Felicus played in a nothing league against a bunch of nobodies. However, they had a surprisingly impressive run through the Reg Pro Tourney. Granted, they did it with 79s against 73s, and they took full advantage of the fact that their Tourney opponents had very little game film on Felicus to work with thanks to Felicus intentionally moving into the easiest league they could. BUT... 73s are capable of beating 79s, and in the Tourney Felicus was able to keep that from happening. That counts for something.
He'll have 2 games each against these 5 teams:
Miami Roadfrogs - Miami didn't exactly set Nat Pro on fire last season, going 9-7 and notching only 1 win against a non-gutted team. Miami does have the best builds in the conference this season, but their record implies they don't know how to best use them. I think Miami and Felicus will split their two games. 1-1.
Alabama Tidesports Crimson Tide - Alabama had an impressive season but fell short in the playoffs. I don't see Felicus keeping up with them, and Bama should win both matchups. 1-3.
TEY5MOD - empty roster, should be 2 easy wins for Felicus. 3-3.
Paris - struggled in Reg Pro last season, always seems to struggle to reach their full potential. But they jump up and surprise people from time to time, and I think they'll do it here. Felicus and Paris split their games. 4-4.
Trill Nation - half-empty roster, looked terrible last season, probably won't be any better this season. Easy wins for Felicus. 6-4.
...and we're not even into inter-conference play, and I already have Felicus at 6 wins.
Let's look at Canada.
Gurupie and DC are empty roster teams, so that's 2 more wins for Felicus. Madison is a brand new team with a roster full of spare parts, CPU dots, and holes everywhere, so that should be a win for Felicus as well. That leaves All The King's Men, American Muscle, and Madtown Bucky. I don't see Felicus beating ATKM or AM, but they'd have a chance against MB. I think Felicus will go 1-2 against those 3.
That puts Felicus at 10-6 and in the playoffs, where they'll probably fall in the first round.
Even taking away any potential wins against real opponents, there's a lot of half-empty and totally-empty rosters in NA Pro. Felicus's floor is 7-9 if they lose to all legit teams and defeat all the incomplete-roster teams.
So, if you're really setting the over/under at 5, I'll take the over in a heartbeat.
First sensible thing you ever said. If we were ever trying to duck anybody, we wouldn't have went straight back up to NA PRO. Daniel was quite determined to get back into this league and never meant to drop down at all. He tried to do a favor for another GLB team owner and it went wrong. None of you has probably done any favors for anyone so that won't make sense to you.
However, if my ST are so bad, and our team so 'badly coached' what does that say about you, who we just humiliated 76-19? You can't ever undo that 76-19. How bad a coach must you be? If you had any sense at all you'd admit Daniel was one of the best coaches and frankly has had to put together teams from free agents, spare players and players of less-active agents (like myself) and still this team has beaten many of the best teams that probably costed a thousand dollars for all the flex for all the players built specifically for that role on that team. You would have seen this ages agio had you had any sense at all, but you don't, so instead you get your ass handed to you 76-19. 76-19. In the Tournament semi-final. You just can't ever undo that.
Hmm... let's break this down. Full disclosure: I pretty much despise Felicus and darncat, but I've never found it useful to downplay or underestimate someone just because I don't like them. Quite the opposite... better to take them seriously, which makes revenge against them that much sweeter later.
Last season Felicus played in a nothing league against a bunch of nobodies. However, they had a surprisingly impressive run through the Reg Pro Tourney. Granted, they did it with 79s against 73s, and they took full advantage of the fact that their Tourney opponents had very little game film on Felicus to work with thanks to Felicus intentionally moving into the easiest league they could. BUT... 73s are capable of beating 79s, and in the Tourney Felicus was able to keep that from happening. That counts for something.
He'll have 2 games each against these 5 teams:
Miami Roadfrogs - Miami didn't exactly set Nat Pro on fire last season, going 9-7 and notching only 1 win against a non-gutted team. Miami does have the best builds in the conference this season, but their record implies they don't know how to best use them. I think Miami and Felicus will split their two games. 1-1.
Alabama Tidesports Crimson Tide - Alabama had an impressive season but fell short in the playoffs. I don't see Felicus keeping up with them, and Bama should win both matchups. 1-3.
TEY5MOD - empty roster, should be 2 easy wins for Felicus. 3-3.
Paris - struggled in Reg Pro last season, always seems to struggle to reach their full potential. But they jump up and surprise people from time to time, and I think they'll do it here. Felicus and Paris split their games. 4-4.
Trill Nation - half-empty roster, looked terrible last season, probably won't be any better this season. Easy wins for Felicus. 6-4.
...and we're not even into inter-conference play, and I already have Felicus at 6 wins.
Let's look at Canada.
Gurupie and DC are empty roster teams, so that's 2 more wins for Felicus. Madison is a brand new team with a roster full of spare parts, CPU dots, and holes everywhere, so that should be a win for Felicus as well. That leaves All The King's Men, American Muscle, and Madtown Bucky. I don't see Felicus beating ATKM or AM, but they'd have a chance against MB. I think Felicus will go 1-2 against those 3.
That puts Felicus at 10-6 and in the playoffs, where they'll probably fall in the first round.
Even taking away any potential wins against real opponents, there's a lot of half-empty and totally-empty rosters in NA Pro. Felicus's floor is 7-9 if they lose to all legit teams and defeat all the incomplete-roster teams.
So, if you're really setting the over/under at 5, I'll take the over in a heartbeat.
First sensible thing you ever said. If we were ever trying to duck anybody, we wouldn't have went straight back up to NA PRO. Daniel was quite determined to get back into this league and never meant to drop down at all. He tried to do a favor for another GLB team owner and it went wrong. None of you has probably done any favors for anyone so that won't make sense to you.
However, if my ST are so bad, and our team so 'badly coached' what does that say about you, who we just humiliated 76-19? You can't ever undo that 76-19. How bad a coach must you be? If you had any sense at all you'd admit Daniel was one of the best coaches and frankly has had to put together teams from free agents, spare players and players of less-active agents (like myself) and still this team has beaten many of the best teams that probably costed a thousand dollars for all the flex for all the players built specifically for that role on that team. You would have seen this ages agio had you had any sense at all, but you don't, so instead you get your ass handed to you 76-19. 76-19. In the Tournament semi-final. You just can't ever undo that.
Harry Patronus Potter
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Paris, they played us strong in that Tournament. They really didn't have the fire power with the players only 73s to really be able to threaten to win it, but they played well nonetheless. Maybe this season at 79 they will have that firepower to give us a run for the money. I still like our chances and would consider us favorites, but no way we are sleeping on those guys. I expect them to have a strong team and anyone who expects to beat them better play their best to do so.
Now, last time we played Alabama two seasons ago, we couldn't compete at all. However, we didn't have the LBs then that we have now. If anything our LB room is just too stacked now and hopefully our guys don't get pissed they all only getting 20-some snaps a game on defense; but those 20-some plays a game will be the best 20-some plays of linebacker play that a LB can play. Because of that I expect it to be a far different looking game than last time. I still would have Alabama as the favorite, but I think we will be at least capable of pulling off an upset if we can play our best, unlike last time where there was no chance at all.
As far as Palm Bay goes, the honest truth is, and I am not even trying to insult anyone, the honest truth is we won by so much because we completely out-coached them. I really think they had a much better shot to beat us based on the players they had than Paris did, yet the game was so much more one-sided and hilarious. Half the TDs we got in that game were easier than against the CPU opponents (who aren't cake in Pro) and the defensive play-calling was so poor, they couldn't even slow down the run or the pass one bit- i think our QB had 400 passing yards and 400 rushing yards and against a human leveled up team, that's pretty unheard of. Usually a team can at least slow down one of those even if it makes the other a bit easier. It was all just too easy. On the flip side, the Palm Bay team couldn't pass at all, so it was no real problem to shut them down. Had we been worried at all about losing we could have altered the defensive game plan even more to stopping the run but just got bored making plays with everyone blitzing. They had the dots (but not the game plan) they could have had a chance to win yet instead they had no chance and lost worse than anyone else we faced. Frankly, coaching was a big part of the lopsidedness of that.
Now, last time we played Alabama two seasons ago, we couldn't compete at all. However, we didn't have the LBs then that we have now. If anything our LB room is just too stacked now and hopefully our guys don't get pissed they all only getting 20-some snaps a game on defense; but those 20-some plays a game will be the best 20-some plays of linebacker play that a LB can play. Because of that I expect it to be a far different looking game than last time. I still would have Alabama as the favorite, but I think we will be at least capable of pulling off an upset if we can play our best, unlike last time where there was no chance at all.
As far as Palm Bay goes, the honest truth is, and I am not even trying to insult anyone, the honest truth is we won by so much because we completely out-coached them. I really think they had a much better shot to beat us based on the players they had than Paris did, yet the game was so much more one-sided and hilarious. Half the TDs we got in that game were easier than against the CPU opponents (who aren't cake in Pro) and the defensive play-calling was so poor, they couldn't even slow down the run or the pass one bit- i think our QB had 400 passing yards and 400 rushing yards and against a human leveled up team, that's pretty unheard of. Usually a team can at least slow down one of those even if it makes the other a bit easier. It was all just too easy. On the flip side, the Palm Bay team couldn't pass at all, so it was no real problem to shut them down. Had we been worried at all about losing we could have altered the defensive game plan even more to stopping the run but just got bored making plays with everyone blitzing. They had the dots (but not the game plan) they could have had a chance to win yet instead they had no chance and lost worse than anyone else we faced. Frankly, coaching was a big part of the lopsidedness of that.
Novus
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I'll let ProKop and Dr. Seuss answer Harry for me.
Originally posted by ProfessionalKop
You beat a team that was 6 levels lower. Congrats.
Originally posted by Dr Seuss
The last time FFG were in Nat Pro they were skull fucked by anyone half decent.
Harry's on Ignore now. Have fun in Season 76!
Originally posted by ProfessionalKop
You beat a team that was 6 levels lower. Congrats.
Originally posted by Dr Seuss
The last time FFG were in Nat Pro they were skull fucked by anyone half decent.
Harry's on Ignore now. Have fun in Season 76!
Novus
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Y'know, I mentioned to Guppy that if he got his roster more filled out, I'd re-assess his team. In the spirit of re-assessing, it occurred to me... Felicus has been in NA Pro before, right? If I study how they did in NA Pro before, that should give me a hint towards how they'll do now that they're back.
Along those lines, Season 75 -- which Felicus spent in Regional Pro #3 after Darncat moved his team down there and then publicly declared in the forums that he wasn't even going to try to move the team out -- may be slightly helpful. Felicus's roster of Level 79 dots entered the Tourney, where they had three tune-up games against under-leveled teams which they won handily (I think Harry has done a very good job of going into detail on one game in particular). In the Tourney championship game, they faced their only meaningful game against a fellow team of Level 79 dots, the Ohio Hooligans, and lost 35-13.
Felicus spent Season 74 in North America Pro and went 7-9 before losing by 31 in the opening round of the playoffs. Some highlights:
- Lost to Steel City Mafia by 94 points
- Went 0-8 against opponents with winning records
- Went 2-8 against teams that eventually made the playoffs
- Lost by 17 points to DC Freedom, who finished 5-11 and missed the playoffs
Felicus also spent Season 73 in North America Pro and went 4-12, missing the playoffs entirely. Some highlights:
- Lost to Texas Tech by 95 points
- Lost to American Muscle by 71 points
- Lost to Sea Wasp Agency by 64 points
- Lost to Alabama by 60 points
- Lost to DC Freedom by 55 points
Felicus spent Season 72 in Regional Pro #3 in an attempt to win a guaranteed gold trophy and won... wait for it... a silver trophy.
Felicus spent Season 71 in Regional Pro #1, where they went 7-9 and lost in the first round of the playoffs. Some highlights:
- Lost to Ohio by 70 points
- Went 0-9 against opponents with a winning or .500 record
- Went 2-8 against teams that eventually made the playoffs
.....
I... um... am not exactly seeing any elite-level performances or coaching in evidence in any of the data from the past 5 seasons.
Based on this, my initial prediction of 10-6 for Felicus for Season 76 now seems rather mis-guided. They'll get lucky at some point and steal a win against someone (sorry, Paris!), but with their floor being 7 wins, I'm now thinking an 8-8 record is more likely for Felicus. That would still get them into the playoffs, but they would most likely lose in the first round -- again.
Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go put in a Support Ticket to get moved down to Reg Pro #3. Given how badly my team lost to Felicus this past season, if Felicus doesn't belong in Nat Pro, then neither do we. Cheers!
Along those lines, Season 75 -- which Felicus spent in Regional Pro #3 after Darncat moved his team down there and then publicly declared in the forums that he wasn't even going to try to move the team out -- may be slightly helpful. Felicus's roster of Level 79 dots entered the Tourney, where they had three tune-up games against under-leveled teams which they won handily (I think Harry has done a very good job of going into detail on one game in particular). In the Tourney championship game, they faced their only meaningful game against a fellow team of Level 79 dots, the Ohio Hooligans, and lost 35-13.
Felicus spent Season 74 in North America Pro and went 7-9 before losing by 31 in the opening round of the playoffs. Some highlights:
- Lost to Steel City Mafia by 94 points
- Went 0-8 against opponents with winning records
- Went 2-8 against teams that eventually made the playoffs
- Lost by 17 points to DC Freedom, who finished 5-11 and missed the playoffs
Felicus also spent Season 73 in North America Pro and went 4-12, missing the playoffs entirely. Some highlights:
- Lost to Texas Tech by 95 points
- Lost to American Muscle by 71 points
- Lost to Sea Wasp Agency by 64 points
- Lost to Alabama by 60 points
- Lost to DC Freedom by 55 points
Felicus spent Season 72 in Regional Pro #3 in an attempt to win a guaranteed gold trophy and won... wait for it... a silver trophy.
Felicus spent Season 71 in Regional Pro #1, where they went 7-9 and lost in the first round of the playoffs. Some highlights:
- Lost to Ohio by 70 points
- Went 0-9 against opponents with a winning or .500 record
- Went 2-8 against teams that eventually made the playoffs
.....
I... um... am not exactly seeing any elite-level performances or coaching in evidence in any of the data from the past 5 seasons.
Based on this, my initial prediction of 10-6 for Felicus for Season 76 now seems rather mis-guided. They'll get lucky at some point and steal a win against someone (sorry, Paris!), but with their floor being 7 wins, I'm now thinking an 8-8 record is more likely for Felicus. That would still get them into the playoffs, but they would most likely lose in the first round -- again.
Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go put in a Support Ticket to get moved down to Reg Pro #3. Given how badly my team lost to Felicus this past season, if Felicus doesn't belong in Nat Pro, then neither do we. Cheers!
Novus
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Should I keep going further back? It's the off-season, I have fuck-else to do right now.
danmeyer04
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Originally posted by Novus
Should I keep going further back? It's the off-season, I have fuck-else to do right now.
Should I keep going further back? It's the off-season, I have fuck-else to do right now.
We are starting out at #6 so nowhere for us to go but up .........
Looking forward to this season .....after we reach 79
Looking forward to this season .....after we reach 79
Novus
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Felicus loses Game 1 to Alabama, 23-20.
Trill is next, but with their half-CPU roster, even Felicus should be able to beat them and pull up to 1-1.
Trill is next, but with their half-CPU roster, even Felicus should be able to beat them and pull up to 1-1.
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