The way I see it (and I may be wrong - feel free to tell me how I am), there are three games that are relevant and also up in the air for Game 16.
The first is the game between the Maori and Barossa. On paper it looks like a close match. I think Barossa takes it and secures a third place slot and sends the Maori to Reg Pro. But if the Maori win, things get complicated as we will see in a moment.
The second pivotal game is the Miracle hosting Black Hand. I think we take it, and end up with a home field playoff game as the 4th seed and Black Hand slides to 6th. If we lose then we drop to 7th and NY takes 6th while Black Hand takes 4th. Assuming, that is, that the Maori do not win.
A Maori win can complicate matters by possibly taking Barossa down a peg. It could also change the format of the decision for the 8th seed.
The pairing in the third pivotal game for the 8th playoff seed is the Rockn Roll versus the Surf. If the Rock beats the Surf (which I think they will do), and the Maori win, then the Maori, Surf and Rock face a three way tie breaker. That tie breaker would be won by Rockn Roll. If the Maori do not win and RocknRoll wins then RocknRoll takes the 8th seed. If the Surf win, they flat out take the 8th seed no matter what the Maori do.
So its only as a spoiler that the Maori make things interesting. If the Maori topples Barossa, then Barrossa, Sumatra and the winner of the Miracle-Black Hand game will all be 11-5. Who wins the potential tie breakers is a good question.
If the Miracle beat Black Hand and the Maori beats Barossa then the second tie breaker of points allowed would come into play as all three teams won one game and lost one game against the other two. Thats not much help because the Miracle and Barossa are two points apart in points allowed and Sumatra only 21 points behind them. With Sumatra having the shoe-in game in week 16, its a coin toss who winds up the winner and who the odd man out in the two home and one visitor playoff slots in contention.
If, however, the tie breaker comes into play with a Black Hand win over the Miracle (and the required Maori win to trigger it) then things are somewhat clearer. Again we would go to points allowed but the Black Hand would have the better odds in Vegas since they have allowed 31 and 50 points fewer than Barossa and Sumatra respectively and to get to the tie breaker they would have had to win their game. It would still be a toss up as to who would get the last home game and who would be at 5th between Barossa and Sumatra.
That all being said, I think it plays out as follows, with Barossa, RocknRoll and the Miracle winning the key contests...
Speculated Standings
1 Orlando Prime Timers 16-0-0
2 Gold Coast Vipers 15-1-0
3 Barossa Grapestompers 12-4-0
4 OffTopica Miracle 11-5-0
5 Sumatra Seahawks 11-5-0
6 Black Hand Legion of Doom 10-6-0
7 NY-CA Ground Pounders 10-6-0
8 Rock 'n' Roll Damnation 9-7-0
9 Legacy's Huntington Beach Surf 9-7-0
10 Christchurch Fighting Maori 8-8-0
11 Furious Fire Blazers 6-10-0 -6
12 Gold Coast Michelin Men 4-12-0 1
13 Northwood Trojans 3-13-0 -1
14 Second City Saints 2-14-0 -10
15 Gridiron Avatars ~ Paragon 2-14-0 -11
16 Dallas Trojans CPU 0-16-0 -15
Feel free to disagree in an interesting fashion....
The first is the game between the Maori and Barossa. On paper it looks like a close match. I think Barossa takes it and secures a third place slot and sends the Maori to Reg Pro. But if the Maori win, things get complicated as we will see in a moment.
The second pivotal game is the Miracle hosting Black Hand. I think we take it, and end up with a home field playoff game as the 4th seed and Black Hand slides to 6th. If we lose then we drop to 7th and NY takes 6th while Black Hand takes 4th. Assuming, that is, that the Maori do not win.
A Maori win can complicate matters by possibly taking Barossa down a peg. It could also change the format of the decision for the 8th seed.
The pairing in the third pivotal game for the 8th playoff seed is the Rockn Roll versus the Surf. If the Rock beats the Surf (which I think they will do), and the Maori win, then the Maori, Surf and Rock face a three way tie breaker. That tie breaker would be won by Rockn Roll. If the Maori do not win and RocknRoll wins then RocknRoll takes the 8th seed. If the Surf win, they flat out take the 8th seed no matter what the Maori do.
So its only as a spoiler that the Maori make things interesting. If the Maori topples Barossa, then Barrossa, Sumatra and the winner of the Miracle-Black Hand game will all be 11-5. Who wins the potential tie breakers is a good question.
If the Miracle beat Black Hand and the Maori beats Barossa then the second tie breaker of points allowed would come into play as all three teams won one game and lost one game against the other two. Thats not much help because the Miracle and Barossa are two points apart in points allowed and Sumatra only 21 points behind them. With Sumatra having the shoe-in game in week 16, its a coin toss who winds up the winner and who the odd man out in the two home and one visitor playoff slots in contention.
If, however, the tie breaker comes into play with a Black Hand win over the Miracle (and the required Maori win to trigger it) then things are somewhat clearer. Again we would go to points allowed but the Black Hand would have the better odds in Vegas since they have allowed 31 and 50 points fewer than Barossa and Sumatra respectively and to get to the tie breaker they would have had to win their game. It would still be a toss up as to who would get the last home game and who would be at 5th between Barossa and Sumatra.
That all being said, I think it plays out as follows, with Barossa, RocknRoll and the Miracle winning the key contests...
Speculated Standings
1 Orlando Prime Timers 16-0-0
2 Gold Coast Vipers 15-1-0
3 Barossa Grapestompers 12-4-0
4 OffTopica Miracle 11-5-0
5 Sumatra Seahawks 11-5-0
6 Black Hand Legion of Doom 10-6-0
7 NY-CA Ground Pounders 10-6-0
8 Rock 'n' Roll Damnation 9-7-0
9 Legacy's Huntington Beach Surf 9-7-0
10 Christchurch Fighting Maori 8-8-0
11 Furious Fire Blazers 6-10-0 -6
12 Gold Coast Michelin Men 4-12-0 1
13 Northwood Trojans 3-13-0 -1
14 Second City Saints 2-14-0 -10
15 Gridiron Avatars ~ Paragon 2-14-0 -11
16 Dallas Trojans CPU 0-16-0 -15
Feel free to disagree in an interesting fashion....
Edited by yello1 on Jan 8, 2013 16:33:49
Edited by yello1 on Jan 8, 2013 16:28:43
